UFC 173: Barao vs. Dillashaw (May 24, 2014)

[Becel]

At the age of 27 and a record of 32 and 1? In a offensively oriented sport like mma? He um just might be? the best?

I think he just might have a point. Lets toss Mayweather in an octagon with him and see how long he goes without begging for mercy. I'll take the under.

[Becel]

Sorry I'm not trying to cause trouble. Just expressing my opinion. I thought we were having a debate. I think arguments sometimes lead to the best decisions and I do make money on most UFC events.

Anyway, I hope I didn't offend anyone.

[JIBBBY]

Fights 4 and 5 from the main event down - http://www.ufc.com/event/UFC173#/fight My continued write up from post #17....

Takeya Mizgaki vs Franscico Rivera - Takeya Mizgaki comes into this fight on a 4 fight win streak.. All going for decision victories.. This suggests Mazgaki is hard to finish and doesn't have finishing power himself with his strikes or a very strong submission game.. He out techniques his opponents with striking and wins with volume and accuracy on point cards.. Fransico Rivera 10-2 steps in having not lost in 6 fights and is simply knocking out guys along the way.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Francisco-Rivera-11908 Rivera simply comes to bang and looks to knock out his opponents and is successful in doing so most of the time... Rivera sports a pretty solid chin himself..

So this fight comes down to probably whom is the more technical striker.. Being that it's very hard to knock out Mizugaki this probably goes the distance with Fransico Rivera getting frustrated, pressing and then getting outpointed in rounds..... Mizugaki is the more technical striker and that might just be good enough for him to win the fight.. Rivera does have a punchers chance and if he can find the range and land he could stop the Jap fighter... Big if though.. Over in rounds is probably a good bet..

Jamie Varner vs James Kraus - Good fight actually and hard to feel out.. Jamie Varner is a seasoned veteran, tough as nails, has all the tricks.. Looks to stand and bang and is decent at doing just that... He's a tough out for anyone.. Jamie is on a 2 fight losing streak though and really needs this win.. Granted he's lost recent fights to tough opponents...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jamie-Varner-7168 he should come into this bout ready for battle.. It doesn't get any easier for Jamie though facing James Kraus with a record of 20-5.. He's coming off a knock out loss but before that won 8 fights in a row.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/James-Krause-31766. James Kraus should be looking to rebound from that loss..

James Kraus can beat you in alot of ways where maybe Jamie Varner can't.. I'm thinking James Kraus has more tools and is just a better all around fighter then Jamie Varner when it comes down to it.. Jamie will be game in this fight but I think he gets dropped or sub'd out at some point in the later rounds..

Hope this helps you guys win your bets...Cheers.

[JIBBBY]

More on Dan Henderson.. No TRT he could be really done in now.. LOL... I'm starting to really like the under in rounds bet...

Anyways, he's a warrior though for not backing out of this fight.. Kuddo's to Hendo and his giant nads to fight DC win or lose...

http://mmajunkie.com/2014/05/underdog-dan-henderson-looking-for-post-trt-statement-vs-cormier-at-ufc-173

[Lick496]

I think this is a decent card for props on the big favs. Barao -800 or -135 ITD?

Cormier -850 or -135 fight goes distance?

Also loving Chico Camus at such a big dog here

[Ron_Paul_2012]

I think this is a decent card for props on the big favs. Barao -800 or -135 ITD?

Cormier -850 or -135 fight goes distance?

Also loving Chico Camus at such a big dog here

[Vaughany]

[UFC_FAN]

Trinaldo & Ellenberger = profit

[JIBBBY]

Odds continue to go up for DC and Barao both now going over the -800 mark.. What do you do with that? Round bets I guess, not even worth a parlay try at those odds..

I'd say bet a little on Hendo, then bet the same little on TJ and hope one lands but I think that would be a waste of money tying on either of these 2 long shots.. Hendo might have a chance of landing the Hbomb but even if he does land it I think DC can take it and remain standing.. TJ has no shot in my mind..

This is a tough card to play.. Alot of the remaining fights are coin tosses almost.. Most of the fights and fighters match up equally well I think..

[fitguy67]

These UFC posters look worse every time i see them

Yee tell me about it, Md looked like shiit last time imbimped in to him. Pun has piled on the pounds as well

In my defence, I had had my face in your asshole for hours.

learn something new every day dept

meaning of "imbimped"...at first i thought it was an innocent typographical error

I just put the verb "to imbimp" in that same file that contains the verb "to felch" and the noun "blumpkin"...that file I originally called "Words I wish I never learned the meaning of"...but now the occasional addition to it is amusing.

_____________
But to really drive home the meaning of a new word, you must use it...and until something in real life arises, a good starting point is to create a hypothetical sentence that makes the meaning clear...hmmm

"I better put on three pairs of cycling pants before i work out...in case i bump into those tough guys with tattoos everywhere...i might get gang-imbimped again...it took weeks to get that bad-breath smell out of my ass the last time it happened."

[TheCalculator]

This is a tough card to play.. Alot of the remaining fights are coin tosses almost.. Most of the fights and fighters match up equally well I think..

I think there's lots of value out there. Just gotta do more homework on those prelims. I think there's great value on a lot of unders in this card. Expecting lots of finishes.

[PaperTrail07]

Fighting - 24201 TJ. Dillashaw +555
Fighting - 24205 D. Henderson +575
Fighting - 24209 J. Ellenberger +185
Fighting - 24213 F. Rivera +150
Fighting - 24217 J. Krause +145 12$ to win 9,249.24

[PaperTrail07]

Fighting - 24202 R. Barao -855
Fighting - 24209 J. Ellenberger +185
Fighting - 24213 F. Rivera +150
Fighting - 24218 J. Varner -165
Fighting - 24221 F. Trinaldo +115
Fighting - 24226 T. Ferguson -280
Fighting - 24230 C. Holdsworth -370
Fighting - 24238 A. Njokuani -230

[PaperTrail07]

Great Night of fights...They should all be 5 rounders

[fitguy67]

PT, your cards, along with those of Aloisius H. Grabaka (i've always been good at guessing names and am solid +ev on the immature "middle-initials" market , hitting at a much better than a 1-in-26 clip...and i always book where they push when it's revealed there is no middle name...very hi-variance game, of course...but money, brah)...

anyhow when you guys actually reveal your full slate of selections...it makes all the bickering, smart-assery, nit-pickery and silliness that preceded it...strangely worthwhile...it's like waiting for Moses to return from Vegas with "the 10-or-so plays"

[mmaCAPPER]

Hey guys, ive been browsing these forums for a few months and only just decided to register...been good with MMA capping lately, and look for value. so far, i like a parlay on cormier/barao/lawler (yes lawler bet does seem a little risky but i am confident) for -113 I like james krause vs varner - reason is because varner is very inconsistent and his cardio has not been there at all in alot of his fights since coming back. his last fight was due to damage done but cardio played a huge factor because he started to get real sloppy. James Krause IMO should even have a striking advantage here but its a slight lean and for +160? NO WAY you should not bet here. Michael Chiesa at -125 vs a gasser with power, Chiesa should have the striking and grappling advantage and superior workrate/cardio. I think he at least wins 2 out of 3 rounds or even sink in a rear naked choked at some point when trinaldo gasses. other fights...not too sure yet, i will get back to you on this.

[fitguy67]

excellent first post mmaCAP...

thanks for the plays and for stating some of your reasoning behind them

now stand your ground...don't let the bastids...especiallyt the "certified subForum-regular" brand of bastids that run rampant on "upcoming event" threads like this...

don't let'em intimidate you with their knee-jerk refutations and obfuscations...

[MD]

Hey guys, ive been browsing these forums for a few months and only just decided to register...been good with MMA capping lately, and look for value. so far, i like a parlay on cormier/barao/lawler (yes lawler bet does seem a little risky but i am confident) for -113 I like james krause vs varner - reason is because varner is very inconsistent and his cardio has not been there at all in alot of his fights since coming back. his last fight was due to damage done but cardio played a huge factor because he started to get real sloppy. James Krause IMO should even have a striking advantage here but its a slight lean and for +160? NO WAY you should not bet here. Michael Chiesa at -125 vs a gasser with power, Chiesa should have the striking and grappling advantage and superior workrate/cardio. I think he at least wins 2 out of 3 rounds or even sink in a rear naked choked at some point when trinaldo gasses. other fights...not too sure yet, i will get back to you on this.

Disagree considerably here. I think that Trinaldo has a massive striking edge, especially with Chiesa's weak body. Chiesa can certainly choke Trinaldo out, especially if Trinaldo gasses, because Chiesa is one of those guys who doesn't necessarily have a complete jiu-jitsu game, but is an expert at certain positions and techniques; that said, Trinaldo is a fantastic grappler, I think he should be better here, especially if he can get on top. Biggest concern is getting his back taken in a scramble.

[PaperTrail07]

haha

PT, your cards, along with those of Aloisius H. Grabaka (i've always been good at guessing names and am solid +ev on the immature "middle-initials" market , hitting at a much better than a 1-in-26 clip...and i always book where they push when it's revealed there is no middle name...very hi-variance game, of course...but money, brah)...

anyhow when you guys actually reveal your full slate of selections...it makes all the bickering, smart-assery, nit-pickery and silliness that preceded it...strangely worthwhile...it's like waiting for Moses to return from Vegas with "the 10-or-so plays"

[Grabaka]

PT, your cards, along with those of Aloisius H. Grabaka (i've always been good at guessing names and am solid +ev on the immature "middle-initials" market , hitting at a much better than a 1-in-26 clip...and i always book where they push when it's revealed there is no middle name...very hi-variance game, of course...but money, brah)...

anyhow when you guys actually reveal your full slate of selections...it makes all the bickering, smart-assery, nit-pickery and silliness that preceded it...strangely worthwhile...it's like waiting for Moses to return from Vegas with "the 10-or-so plays"

que? Im aloisius H Grabaka?
Lol i didnt undertood sheit bro

[PaperTrail07]

THE alosius H Grabaka....

[fitguy67]

THE alosius H Grabaka....

there...it cashes...

grading in the "middle initial" market depends on receiving at least one unedited post referring to the person as such...

do you prefer Horacio...or just 'ho

[PaperTrail07]

What could be ...now IS.......our boy H can pick some winners

[TheCalculator]

PaperT -- those 2 posts are 2 different parlays?

If so Nunya is gonna rip you. You put Varner on 1 side and then Krause on the other? And then Barao on 1 side and then TJ on the other?

[fitguy67]

funny how the toughest dudes in real life have the names most suited to pinning on a librarian...what was Ms. Jackson thinking when she came up with "Quinton"?...anyhow, that's how i manage to nail'em at an uncanny clip...

Anyhow. Grab (now that we know your official name, we'll keep it to ourselves...but razz you with it when we're drinkin'), lookin' forward to this next card...you banged 'dem books pretty good at B120

[fitguy67]

PaperT -- those 2 posts are 2 different parlays?

quite sure only the first one is the special PT- parlay (aka.mega-payout lottery ticket...that have been SOOO painfully close to cashing recently)

...second one all straights

[JIBBBY]

I think there's lots of value out there. Just gotta do more homework on those prelims. I think there's great value on a lot of unders in this card. Expecting lots of finishes.

I hear ya Calculator and agree - I'm still working on the prelim fights now..

I also think the best bets on this card to be had are on the unders, and a few of the overs.. This will be the first card where I'm gonna attempt to bet more on the overs and unders then just straight out winners of the fights.

I just can't get a good feel or read on straight up winners other then DC and Barao going into this entire card so far..

[PaperTrail07]

absolutely....look at the numbers sir....the first parlay is just a fun lotto ticket....if he want to get all upset over 12$ then go right ahead lol

PaperT -- those 2 posts are 2 different parlays?

If so Nunya is gonna rip you. You put Varner on 1 side and then Krause on the other? And then Barao on 1 side and then TJ on the other?

[PaperTrail07]

You are correct BUT let not forget I hit the bellaor car fit....147:1 have not seen any of these fight scientists show a cash like that...here is another copy just for shits...

quite sure only the first one is the special PT- parlay (aka.mega-payout lottery ticket...that have been SOOO painfully close to cashing recently)

...second one all straights

[PaperTrail07]

Wager Type : Parlay (6
team)
Wager Status : Win
Risk / To Win Amount : 7.50 /
1,025.99(USD)
Accepted : 5/17/2014 5:31PM -
PST

Won : 1,025.99

Amount Paid : 1033.49

#1) Wager Type : Money Line
Outcome :
Win
Sport / Period : MMA Fighting / Game

Selection : Q. Jackson
Time : 5/17/2014 8:55:01PM -
(PST)
Line : -215

Game Notes : Bellator 120 - Light Heavyweight 3 rounds -
The Landers Center - Memphis, Tennessee - PPV


#2) Wager Type : Money Line
Outcome :
Win
Sport / Period : MMA Fighting / Game

Selection : W. Brooks
Time : 5/17/2014 8:20:01PM -
(PST)
Line : +710

Game Notes : Bellator 120 - Lightweight 5 rounds - The
Landers Center - Memphis, Tennessee - PPV


#3) Wager Type : Money Line
Outcome :
Win
Sport / Period : MMA Fighting / Game

Selection : T. Ortiz
Time : 5/17/2014 7:50:01PM -
(PST)
Line : +320

Game Notes : Bellator 120 - Light Heavyweight 3 rounds -
The Landers Center - Memphis, Tennessee - PPV


#4) Wager Type : Money Line
Outcome :
Win
Sport / Period : MMA Fighting / Game

Selection : M. Page
Time : 5/17/2014 7:00:01PM -
(PST)
Line : -495

Game Notes : Bellator 120 - Welterweight 3 rounds - The
Landers Center - Memphis, Tennessee - PPV


#5) Wager Type : Money Line
Outcome :
Win
Sport / Period : MMA Fighting / Game

Selection : A. Volkov
Time : 5/17/2014 7:25:01PM -
(PST)
Line : +105

Game Notes : Bellator 120 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - The
Landers Center - Memphis, Tennessee - Spike TV


#6) Wager Type : Money Line
Outcome :
Win
Sport / Period : MMA Fighting / Game

Selection : C. Kongo
Time : 5/17/2014 6:20:01PM -
(PST)
Line : -820

[PaperTrail07]

have been getting very close to cashing these every card....I'm still going to post 1 more after I "clear my head" aka smoke one and think about the fights.......I just go down the card and pick who I think will win w/odds slightly in my head...I hope everyone rips their book apart this card....

[Pabst]

Fighting - 24201 TJ. Dillashaw +555
Fighting - 24205 D. Henderson +575
Fighting - 24209 J. Ellenberger +185
Fighting - 24213 F. Rivera +150
Fighting - 24217 J. Krause +145 12$ to win 9,249.24

I know better ways to throw away 12$, I mean, I could probably get drunk for that price.

[TheCalculator]

I also think the best bets on this card to be had are on the unders, and a few of the overs.. This will be the first card where I'm gonna attempt to bet more on the overs and unders then just straight out winners of the fights.
.

I Have also bet a tremendous number of overs and unders. I'm predicting seven or eight fights will be finishes

[JIBBBY]

Fighting - 24201 TJ. Dillashaw +555
Fighting - 24205 D. Henderson +575
Fighting - 24209 J. Ellenberger +185
Fighting - 24213 F. Rivera +150
Fighting - 24217 J. Krause +145 12$ to win 9,249.24

There have been dog days in sports but it doesn't happen very often.. It's certainly better odds then winning a State Lotto PaperTrail.....

I honestly can't remember the last time 3 top fights on a PPV UFC card lost in order? Than add 2 more underdog fights to that to win the above parlay.....

I'm sure it has happened in the past but like I said it's a long long long shot.. For 12 bucks to win 9 grand = it's tempting but not likely...

[JIBBBY]

I Have also bet a tremendous number of overs and unders. I'm predicting seven or eight fights will be finishes

Yep Calculator - I'm starting to learn and understand that the over/under bets in MMA are easier to pick then the actual fight winners themselves in most cases!!!. My other 2 sportsbooks didn't offer those over/under bets, but 5 dimes does.. Thanks MD...