UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Nelson (April 11, 2014)

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Both fighters are 37. Minotauro Nogueira in his prime beats Big Country 9 out of ten times. I have been an MMA fan since UFC 1. The idea of Big Country taking on Minotauro back in 2001-2006 would have been laughable. I don't know how much he has left but I wish him well this Saturday in Abu Dhabi.

[Bumdeal]

Andrew Craig vs Camozzi really sticks out here for me. I believe Andrew rebounds after his loss to Barnatt. Waiting to see if the line moves in my favor and will be taking Craig.

[marzwoody]

Both fighters are 37. Minotauro Nogueira in his prime beats Big Country 9 out of ten times. I have been an MMA fan since UFC 1. The idea of Big Country taking on Minotauro back in 2001-2006 would have been laughable. I don't know how much he has left but I wish him well this Saturday in Abu Dhabi.

Roy is gonna knock his old ass out. they might both be same age but psychically Minotauro is 48.

[fitguy67]

Andrew Craig vs Camozzi really sticks out here for me. I believe Andrew rebounds after his loss to Barnatt. Waiting to see if the line moves in my favor and will be taking Craig.

early substantial softening on Craig price...from -130 opener to +105 in less than 3 hours at 5d

my inclination is that if your original analysis is sound, you shouldn't AUTOMATICALLY turn your nose up at a cheaper-price/larger-payout...perhaps the best course is to not change course and thankfully risk 36% less for a crack at the same target amount OR risk the same amount as originally planned for a crack at a 36% bigger prize

if you liked it at the opener...you should love it 36% more now...unless you have reason to believe that the early wave of $ chasing camozzi knows something you didn't factor into your original analysis

the error that many make in this game that leads to much ...is to AUTOMATICALLY assume that money...whether early, middle, or late...is somehow "smarter" (aka. "less stupid") than we are

it IS however, a good idea to see if there is anything "off" with whatever made Craig stand out for you...early money not agreeing with you should make you re-view but NOT automatically abandon (or--even more drastically--reverse) your original view...if nothing appears to be off, you'd be stupid to not accept the bargain that's presented itself (and may very-well swing back before the event...leading to another source of )

[Vaughany]

As hoping to get Camozzi as slight dog in this one.

[Dwil125]

On guida by decision +165.

[MD]

On guida by decision +165.

Not me. Value there, definitely, but I'd rather just take Guida straight. He has a pretty decent shot for a finish here, I think. Wouldn't be shocked to see him choke Kawajiri out.

[Wilbo86]

early substantial softening on Craig price...from -130 opener to +105 in less than 3 hours at 5d

my inclination is that if your original analysis is sound, you shouldn't AUTOMATICALLY turn your nose up at a cheaper-price/larger-payout...perhaps the best course is to not change course and thankfully risk 36% less for a crack at the same target amount OR risk the same amount as originally planned for a crack at a 36% bigger prize

if you liked it at the opener...you should love it 36% more now...unless you have reason to believe that the early wave of $ chasing camozzi knows something you didn't factor into your original analysis

the error that many make in this game that leads to much ...is to AUTOMATICALLY assume that money...whether early, middle, or late...is somehow "smarter" (aka. "less stupid") than we are

it IS however, a good idea to see if there is anything "off" with whatever made Craig stand out for you...early money not agreeing with you should make you re-view but NOT automatically abandon (or--even more drastically--reverse) your original view...if nothing appears to be off, you'd be stupid to not accept the bargain that's presented itself (and may very-well swing back before the event...leading to another source of )

The last fight night card was a case in point, a lot of money coming in on favorites late. I got Dolloway at +280 and Moldonado at +170, prices that were egregiously out of line. I will say that late money, especially in high profile fights, is usually a little on the dumb side and running with the herd.

[Wilbo86]

The last fight night card was a case in point, a lot of money coming in on favorites late. I got Dolloway at +280 and Moldonado at +170, prices that were egregiously out of line. I will say that late money, especially in high profile fights, is usually a little on the dumb side and running with the herd.

Conversely, early money especially close to line opening is usually smart money. Thats the way i see it anyway

[Dwil125]

Not me. Value there, definitely, but I'd rather just take Guida straight. He has a pretty decent shot for a finish here, I think. Wouldn't be shocked to see him choke Kawajiri out.

I didn't catch guida +115 straight, I actually thought the money would be coming in on kawijiri so I waited and missed it. I could only see guida getting a late finish if kawijiri gasses again.

[JIBBBY]

Clay Guida is a high energy and in your grill type fighter with very good wrestling skills.. He's been losing more then winning of late unfortunately and really needs this win...

When ever I get the chance to bet against Asian fighters in the UFC I do just that.. No disrespect intended.. Outside of Yushin Okami they are typically behind with their wrestling when matching up in the UFC...

While Kawajiri has a ton of experience more then likely he will grapple humped in this bout by Clay.. Clay I think will pound on him and wear him down to a decision victory if I had to guess... Clay doesn't have punching power so I don't see him Knocking out Kawajiri and the Warrior spirit in Kawajiri should keep him in the fight till the final bell sounds even with all the ground and pound he's about to receive..

Don't see Clay sinking in the choke either on Kawajiri.. Playing it safe - Betting on Clay just to win this fight I think is almost a sure win!!!!

http://www.ufc.com/fighter/Tatsuya-Kawajiri

[conferi]

Dariush is EASY money, my biggest play of the year.

[JIBBBY]

Dariush is EASY money, my biggest play of the year.

Not sure about the fight of the year to bet on, but Dariush is undefeated at 7-0 and is a solid 2-1 favorite going in.. +220 is what I'm seeing.. He's fighting a more experienced fighter at 9-4 but Nijem has lost 2 of his last 3 fights..

I think it's a solid bet as I always love to go with undefeated fighters... Just wish Dariush had a few more fights under his belt going in..

http://www.ufc.com/event/ufc-abu-dhabi-nogueira-nelson?f1=Ramsey-Nijem&f2=Beneil-Dariush

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Not sure about the fight of the year to bet on, but Dariush is undefeated at 7-0 and is a solid 2-1 favorite going in.. +220 is what I'm seeing.. He's fighting a more experienced fighter at 9-4 but Nijem has lost 2 of his last 3 fights..

I think it's a solid bet as I always love to go with undefeated fighters... Just wish Dariush had a few more fights under his belt going in..

http://www.ufc.com/event/ufc-abu-dha...Beneil-Dariush

Nijem has better wrestling. He has a clear path to victory through takedowns & sub defense. There is no such thing as easy money or locks in MMA.

[Jarman]

Dariush is EASY money, my biggest play of the year.

Just curious, what's your record on "easy money" plays? Do you have other examples of past fights you considered easy money?

[conferi]

Nijem has better wrestling. He has a clear path to victory through takedowns & sub defense. There is no such thing as easy money or locks in MMA.

Dariush will finish him. Trust me. I'll quote this post when he does. Different caliber fighter.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Dariush will finish him. Trust me. I'll quote this post when he does. Different caliber fighter.

We shall see. I have 5 units on Dariush but he is not a lock. Do you have info. about Nijem having an injury?

[getlucky2win]

nijem switchd camps

http://mmajunkie.com/2014/04/video-ramsey-nijem-on-camp-change-training-with-shields-for-ufc-fight-night-39/

[Dwil125]

Dariush will finish him. Trust me. I'll quote this post when he does. Different caliber fighter.

I'm on Njiem/Dariush ov 1.5. thinking of playing not dariush by tko/ko. He's not a great striker and he might have a hard time taking ramsey down.

[Vaughany]

Dariush on MMAJunkie Radio


- Training with Ellenberger at Kings MMA, Ellenberger bet money on me, they were trying to keep me a secret
- I studied Brenneman really well, I made sure I made him come to me the whole time and not do his game plan
- His corner kept on telling him to watch out for my left kick, so I threw my cross and it landed
- He tried to grab a single, but he's more of a double guy
- I lost to Kron in the Abu Dhabi qualifiers, in a match I thought I won, so I'm so excited to go there
- I don't know how to fight for a decision, it's been good to me
- I make sure I look for the finish, good killer instinct
- I have 7 fights and I still don't have a triangle yet, I have alot of RNC's
- I fight at 11 am here
- Nijem has grown up in the UFC, he's gotten better every fight, I'm expecting something new and be ready everywhere
- 15 hour straight flight + 1 hour drive

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Dariush on MMAJunkie Radio


- Training with Ellenberger at Kings MMA, Ellenberger bet money on me, they were trying to keep me a secret
- I studied Brenneman really well, I made sure I made him come to me the whole time and not do his game plan
- His corner kept on telling him to watch out for my left kick, so I threw my cross and it landed
- He tried to grab a single, but he's more of a double guy
- I lost to Kron in the Abu Dhabi qualifiers, in a match I thought I won, so I'm so excited to go there
- I don't know how to fight for a decision, it's been good to me
- I make sure I look for the finish, good killer instinct
- I have 7 fights and I still don't have a triangle yet, I have alot of RNC's
- I fight at 11 am here
- Nijem has grown up in the UFC, he's gotten better every fight, I'm expecting something new and be ready everywhere
- 15 hour straight flight + 1 hour drive

Nijem is in a good place mentally. Anyone who thinks Dariush is just going to walk through Ramsey is sadly mistaken. As I said before I have 5 units on Dariush & he should win more often than not. But to think Dariush is a lock is just plain foolish.

[Vaughany]

Nijem is in a good place mentally. Anyone who thinks Dariush is just going to walk through Ramsey is sadly mistaken. As I said before I have 5 units on Dariush & he should win more often than not. But to think Dariush is a lock is just plain foolish.

Who said hes a lock?!

[CaptChaos145]

Oh. Well welcome to SBR Mike. What fight do you think is the biggest lock on next Saturn Day's UFC card?

Thales is the biggest fav so I'd roll with him but I wouldn't bet at the -400 line - too much to lose with very little to gain. I like Roy over Big Nog is a 5 rounder. I' also put something very small on Howard... He's 6-3 in the big show!

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Who said hes a lock?!

Conferi

[Wilbo86]

Nijem is in a good place mentally. Anyone who thinks Dariush is just going to walk through Ramsey is sadly mistaken. As I said before I have 5 units on Dariush & he should win more often than not. But to think Dariush is a lock is just plain foolish.

Just a bit of constructive criticism from my point of view Ron, I've noticed you seem to put a lot of stock in intangibles like mental state and focus etc. I'd be weary of this. Its fair enough if you're talking about a fighter with a proven problem with focus or motivation but generally i don't think its something worth putting too much weight on. MMA is a minefield of hyperbole, every fighter is "in the best shape of his life" or "more focused than he's ever been" or low and behold following a loss "wasn't focused" etc... One listen to a joe rogan into video will show you what I mean...

Anyway, just my opinion.

Also, I agree duranish isn't a lock

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Just a bit of constructive criticism from my point of view Ron, I've noticed you seem to put a lot of stock in intangibles like mental state and focus etc. I'd be weary of this. Its fair enough if you're talking about a fighter with a proven problem with focus or motivation but generally i don't think its something worth putting too much weight on. MMA is a minefield of hyperbole, every fighter is "in the best shape of his life" or "more focused than he's ever been" or low and behold following a loss "wasn't focused" etc... One listen to a joe rogan into video will show you what I mean...

Anyway, just my opinion.

Also, I agree duranish isn't a lock

I don't put a lot of emphasis on one specific thing. I spend hours listening to & watching interviews. Watching fight footage. I try to know everything about a fighter (bad habits with drugs, single or married, etc.). In the sport of boxing knowing who a fighters manager & promoter are is very important along with many other things. Too many things to mention. The first wager I ever made was back in 1997 Sugar Shane Mosley vs Philip Holiday. It was only around 3 thousand, I can't remember exactly how much. Shortly after that I made another wager for 7700 on Prince Naseem Hamed vs Wayne McCullough. I've been watching MMA since UFC 1 & have never missed a major promotion fight.

[dww123]

Nijem has better wrestling. He has a clear path to victory through takedowns & sub defense. There is no such thing as easy money or locks in MMA.

Only MMA? Or do you just mean gambling on sports in general?

[NunyaBidness]

Only MMA? Or do you just mean gambling on sports in general?

There are definitely locks in sports betting.

[dww123]

There are definitely locks in sports betting.

Awesome! Do you know of any locks for tomorrow? Baseball? NBA? tennis? I'm on a slide need a winner

[NunyaBidness]

Not yet, they seem to come and go at Random. Lebron under 44 rebounds last week was a pretty good one though.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Only MMA? Or do you just mean gambling on sports in general?

I haven't watched a stick & ball sport in decades. I couldn't tell ya who won last year's Super Bowl, NBA Championship, Baseball World Series, etc,. Outside of my personal life a lot of my time is spent reading or training to keep my old ass looking young. My parents got me into martial arts at the age of 4. So the only sports I'm into are combat sports.

[Wilbo86]

I don't put a lot of emphasis on one specific thing. I spend hours listening to & watching interviews. Watching fight footage. I try to know everything about a fighter (bad habits with drugs, single or married, etc.). In the sport of boxing knowing who a fighters manager & promoter are is very important along with many other things. Too many things to mention. The first wager I ever made was back in 1997 Sugar Shane Mosley vs Philip Holiday. It was only around 3 thousand, I can't remember exactly how much. Shortly after that I made another wager for 7700 on Prince Naseem Hamed vs Wayne McCullough. I've been watching MMA since UFC 1 & have never missed a major promotion fight.

Could have just said "'I BET BIG MONEY YALLLLL"

[NunyaBidness]

Except he can't produce a single betting ticket for any event ever. Ask him to and he'll show you how rawesome he is at Sherdog Fantasy MMA.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Except he can't produce a single betting ticket for any event ever. Ask him to and he'll show you how rawesome he is at Sherdog Fantasy MMA.

The delicious irony! Especially coming from someone who calls himself NunyaBidness! That's right son. It's NONE of your business.

[Dwil125]

A few new props out now