UFC 96 Picks

The HOFF · 03-05-09, 12:04 AM

I like Maynard a lot. I'm actually more excited for Carwin - Gonzaga than I am for the main event. Opposite side though. I got Carwin.

TheGovernor11 · 03-05-09, 12:54 AM

Maybe I'm missing something with Shane Carwin but I don't understand all the hype for this guy. He's looked impressive in his two UFC victories and in all of his fights outside of the UFC. But who has he really beaten? This is a serious step up in competition for him and I'm just not buying into him just yet. I know what Gonzaga has done and is capabale of and I see him notching another victory as he slowly moves closer to another title shot.

TheGovernor11 · 03-05-09, 12:59 AM

5.5* Brandon Vera -550 vs. Mike Patt

3* Parlay
---Gabriel Gonzaga -170 vs. Shane Carwin
---Brandon Vera -550 vs. Mike Patt

Debating on whether or not I make this parlay a 5 unit play. I'm holding off for now but we'll see. I'm still trying to figure out this infatuation everyone has with Shane Carwin.

TrafficUB · 03-05-09, 02:55 PM

I'm a big UFC fan, i don't see anyway Carwin is going to win this, Gonzaga wants to go for the title, his a beast at the division, he's also very much experienced, Carwin is good, but all he has is punching power, Gonzaga has more reach more height, probably more weight.

Rampage is going to beat Jardine, it's a fight for him to get him closer to a title shot, Rampage knocked out Wandy, Wandy knocked out Jardine, but also Jardine beat Griffin and Griffin barely beat Rampage, so it's a big puzzle to figure out who will win, but i'm going with Rampage 100%

Stay away from Pete Sell fight, he sucks

Tamdan McCrory should come out pissed off after his loss to Hazzlett

Vera will win, enough said

Matt Hamill will win, training with Tito Ortiz and his great wrestling will come in use

The HOFF · 03-05-09, 03:04 PM

Gonzaga is a great fighter, no doubt. But other than his win over CroCop, he really hasn't beaten any top competition either. And even the win over CroCop doesn't look that impressive anymore, due to CroCop sucking lately.

I just look at the way Couture dismantled Gonzaga. I'm not saying Carwin is the same league as Couture, but I think Carwin has similar wrestling ability to Couture. He should be able to keep the fight standing and catch him with one of those huge bombs. This is Carwin's chance to show he is the real deal and not just hype.

Either way, should be an awesome fight.

TheGovernor11 · 03-05-09, 05:42 PM

That's a real solid point; Gonzaga hasn't really beaten anyone of elite status either. And while he gets some points for being in there with elite guys, he loss to them so it doesn't mean all that much.

My real issue is that Carwin is still hype and I don't see the same promise that everyone else does. His wrestling is good but nowhere near the amazing status of guys like Koscheck or Lesnar and I don't even think he's a better wrestler than someone like Rashad Evans. Carwin's also freestyle wrestler and not a Greco-Roman wrestler like Randy so though their skill level may be equal, they aren't the same (if that makes sense).

I also feel Carwin's striking is vastly overrated. While he hits like a truck and has good head movement, his hands leave a lot to be desired. He rarely throws more than a right straight and a left straight and they often come from the same angle and at the same speed. It seems that Carwin tries to overwhelm guys with his average striking in order to score the takedown.

If I’m wrong, it won’t be the first time and is definitely not the last. I just don’t see this bout going in Carwin’s favor.

TheGovernor11 · 03-05-09, 06:11 PM

2* Gray Maynard -160 vs. Jim Miller
1* Gray Maynard -170 vs. Jim Miller

johnnyP · 03-06-09, 06:47 AM

Rampage Jackson = Junkyard Dog

Rampage Jackson ROCKS! and he will be the light heavyweight champ before the end of this year!

The way he barks and wears that silver chain he totally reminds me of the great 80's WWF wrestler The Junk Yard Dog, who also kicked ass!

ROCK ON RAMPAGE!!!!!

Keith Jardine is a strange fighter. I hate the way he pinches his nipples before the fight. What is up with that! The most awkward fighting style I've ever seen... since George the animal Steele!

The HOFF · 03-06-09, 12:19 PM

Bread · 03-06-09, 12:37 PM

LOL! One of the best fights I've ever seen Hoff.

Skanless1 · 03-07-09, 12:32 AM

i actually think a lot of people will be surprised by how well carwin may do, and also BIG SLEEPER pick w/munoz... his wrestling might be on par w/hamill's, and stand-up not bad... don't overlook this guy; that's my advice.

TheGovernor11 · 03-07-09, 12:49 AM

I agree completely about Munoz. His wrestling is better than Hamil's but he's still very green. That's the only thing that's stopping me from playing him.

And I'm just not sold on the hype of Carwin like I am with Cain Velasquez. His striking is pedestrian and wrestling is overrated. He's going to need an impressive win against Gonzaga to sell me.

TheGovernor11 · 03-07-09, 12:56 AM

5* Gabriel Gonzaga -160 vs. Shane Carwin

I hope I don't jinx myself by doing another write up (a la UFC 89) but I feel pretty confident here. Definitely did not mean for this to be so long; it just happened. And I still plan on doing something for Grey and Vera, albeit much much shorter.

There is much at stake for both Gabriel Gonzaga and Shane Carwin in this HW matchup as each has something to prove. For Gabriel Gonzaga, a win will bring him one step closer to proving that he’s the elite fighter that everyone thought he was less than two years ago. For Shane Carwin, a victory will prove that the hype surrounding him is not unfounded and that he is more similar to Brock Lesnar than Ron Waterman. Adding to this, because they are fighting in arguably the shallowest division in the UFC, the winner will be catapulted a fight or two away from a title shot.

I’m not going to indulge too much on the credentials of each fighter (just google their names and you can find out everything about them) but rather focus on few aspects that stick out to me. Gonzaga is an excellent grappler who is a world class BJJ black belt that has won numerous grappling and BJJ titles. He mainly uses his BJJ to gain top position on his opponent and GnP them before transitioning to a submission. Similarly, Carwin is mainly a ground fighter who uses his wrestling (Division II National Champion), size, and strength to pound out his opponents. His size and strength are often commented about as he draws comparison to Brock Lesnar.

While both fighters usually have a distinct advantage on the ground over their opponent, I see this ground matchup being a wash. Many people incorrectly assume that because Carwin’s a wrestler, he will dominate Gonzaga on the ground like Randy Couture. First, Carwin’s a freestyle wrestler while Randy’s a Greco-Roman wrestler. This is huge because Greco forbids attacks below the waist; meaning that takedowns are all from the clinch. Second, Randy set up the bulk of his takedowns with his striking and excellent footwork. Neither are things that Carwin possesses. Additionally, not only did Gonzaga break his nose in the first two minutes of the fight and gassed before the end of the 1st round, he has improved his wrestling in the past 18 months since that fight. Contrastingly, Carwin’s wrestling ability is slightly overrated. He is not an elite wrestler like Koscherk, Lesnar or Maynard is and relies as much on wrestling as he does on pure power to win the ground game.

With the ground game a wash, I see this fight being won the feet. Here I give the definitive advantage to Gonzaga. Though Carwin has the longer reach by a couple inches, it won’t be a factor because of Gonzaga’s superior footwork and the wide array of strikes that he throws. Moreover, Gonzaga is comfortable on his feet and has no problem fighting a kickboxing match. Carwin on the other hand, is willing to stand and trade but is always looking for an opportunity to get the fight to the ground. Many times, he rushes forward while throwing punches in an attempt to overwhelm you and get you to the ground. Other times, he sits in the pocket and throws a 1-2, waiting for you to over commit so he can take you down. In either case, he’s going to get hurt on the feet. If he rushes forward, he’s going to get popped once when rushing in, again when throws a punch, and then eat another shot to the face or a leg kick when Gonzaga turns out. Even if Carwin’s sitting in the pocket throwing a 1-2, he’s not good at finding his range and is heavy on his front leg. This is a recipe to eat some vicious leg kicks. Another thing that a lot is being made of Carwin’s punching power. Yes, he hits hard and is probably the harder hitting of the two; but Gonzaga also packs KO power. It doesn’t matter if a Honda Accord hits you going 70 or a Sixteen Wheeler hits you going 100, you’re doing to die either way.

As in any fight where you’re up against a fighter with KO power, there’s always that puncher’s chance you get caught and lose. Just look at Koscheck’s last fight; he was the vastly superior fighter but got caught (and unfortunately cost me). Carwin does have better than a puncher’s chance in this fight but not the 45% chance his odds are giving him. He looks great on the surface but as you go deeper, you find out that he’s a lot more hype than substance. It sounds impressive that he’s a perfect 10-0 and has never been out of the first round. But he hasn’t fought anyone of note so how impressive is it? Even though Gonzaga hasn’t really beaten an elite fighter, there is some value in fighting opponents of this caliber. People are also impressed with Carwin’s size, strength, wrestling accolades, and athleticism, and seem him in a similar light as Brock Lesnar. The problem with this is that he’s smaller, not as good of a wrestler, not as athletic, and older than Brock. Right now, he’s at best a poor man’s Brock Lesnar.

This is fight that has had me perplexed from the opening lines because I couldn’t believe Gonzaga opened so low. Even now, his odds still haven’t dropped and have actually gotten slightly better (you can get him at -155). The main reason for this? All the hype surrounding Shane Carwin. The hype’s not completely unfounded but it’s a little much. Carwin’s a solid fighter and has potential to make some noise in the HW division (it’s not guaranteed because he’s already 34). This just isn’t going to be his coming out party. He has never faced someone of Gonzaga’s skill level and this is a big step up for him. The way I see it, Carwin’s going to be on the losing end of the standup affair and will attempt a sloppy takedown after being hurt. The takedown will not only be stuffed but will result in him being put on his back and getting pounded out by Gabriel Gonzaga. This might be a bold prediction but I think Carwin’s going to keep his streak alive of never getting out of the first round as Gonzaga wins by TKO RD1.

TheGovernor11 · 03-07-09, 02:08 PM

Non Plays

I'm not betting these but will be tracking them as part of my MMA individual record.

Quinton "Rampage" Jackson over Keith Jardine
Tamdan McCroy over Ryan Madigan
Aaron Riley over Shane Nelson

The HOFF · 03-07-09, 04:11 PM

Hey Gov, Do you like Aaron Riley? He is my biggest bet on the card. If that hits I'll go big on Maynard too.

TheGovernor11 · 03-07-09, 05:20 PM

I like Aaron Riley to win, just not a fan of the line. I'm going to add that to my list of non plays. Also considering Tim Boetsch, Jason Day, and Matt Brown.

JerseyRob · 03-07-09, 07:02 PM

GG has NO HEART! He is a complete front runner. When things are going well he looks good but the second his opponent applies pressure he mentally breaks down. MMA "experts" can say what they want about Crawin but the fact is Nate Marquardt, Rashad Evans, Keith Jardine and the rest of the guys from Jackson's Camp say he is the real deal. It's the best camp going right now and the guy is amazingly athletic for his size. If GG can land something early he can win but the longer it goes Carwin will eventually break him. I wouldn't touch it but I would take Carwin.

TheGovernor11 · 03-07-09, 08:23 PM

I'm not sold either way if he does or does not have heart. Maybe you're right but he did fight an additional round and half with a broken nose while getting pounded by Randy (definitely could of just folded in the first) and Werdum was hitting him with flush shots. And everybody on any fight team always says guy from their camps the real deal and is a world beater. Bas Rutten and guys from Legends MMA was saying Kimbo Slice was the real deal. Hendo, Lindland, and the guys from Team Quest was saying Sokodjou was the real deal.

TheGovernor11 · 03-07-09, 08:26 PM

Updated results **spoiler**

Updated results here with spoilers.

5.5* Brandon Vera -550 vs. Mike Patt (Bodog)...WIN
5* Gabriel Gonzaga -160 vs. Shane Carwin (Bodog)
3* Parlay
— Brandon Vera -550 vs. Mike Patt (Bodog)
— Gabriel Gonzaga -160 vs. Shane Carwin (Bodog)
2* Grey Maynard -160 vs. Jim Miller (5Dimes)
1* Grey Maynard -170 vs. Jim Miller (5Dimes)

1-0 +1.00 units
-
-
-
-
-

TheGovernor11 · 03-07-09, 10:36 PM

Updated results

Only posting the results of fights that have been shown on the PPV.

5* Gabriel Gonzaga -160 vs. Shane Carwin (Bodog)
3* Parlay
--- Brandon Vera -550 vs. Mike Patt (Bodog)
--- Gabriel Gonzaga -160 vs. Shane Carwin (Bodog)
2* Grey Maynard -160 vs. Jim Miller (5Dimes)...WIN
1* Grey Maynard -170 vs. Jim Miller (5Dimes)...WIN

1-0 +1.84 units

TheGovernor11 · 03-08-09, 12:35 AM

Final results

5.5* Brandon Vera -550 vs. Mike Patt (Bodog)...WIN
5* Gabriel Gonzaga -160 vs. Shane Carwin (Bodog)...loss
3* Parlay...loss
— Brandon Vera -550 vs. Mike Patt (Bodog)
— Gabriel Gonzaga -160 vs. Shane Carwin (Bodog)
2* Grey Maynard -160 vs. Jim Miller (5Dimes)...WIN
1* Grey Maynard -170 vs. Jim Miller (5Dimes)...WIN

MMA Individual Matches
4-2

MMA Bets
2-2 -5.16 units

Think the only reason why I'm not more upset over the Gonzaga loss is because it was going EXACTLY how I predicted it too. Awful run for me over the past two events but I'll (hopefully) bounce back.

shantystar · 03-29-09, 08:10 PM

googluck next time too,message me for any help.