Attn! MMA math model has Sara McMann winning 52% of time

[ibetkellybro]

It's way easier to scrape from the books themselves. Hard part is getting the names to line up.

what happened to bookmaker? do they care about mma anymore? Seems the new guy has a hard on for grappling though.

[Vaughany]

Ye bookmaker is a wasteland for pre-live betting mma!

[ibetkellybro]

classic jiujitsu nerd flawed logic. Two things.

1) insanely old videos. One video is from 2009 when mcmann has less than 6 months bjj training. The Penny Thomas sweep was 2011 when Penny was 15 lbs heavier and the best bjj player at her weight in the world and mcmann still didnt get submitted.

2) assuming this is going to be a grappling match and/or Sara wants to be on top in the guard





just look at his comments. predicts a FIRST round armbar. Even though the market for over 1.5 rounds is well over -200.

[ibetkellybro]

this bjjscout is not too bright with the finer details. Excluding his giant boner for Ronda.

mel din

2 days ago

maybe her style is unique and affective that's the way she gets her win. she is anOlympian medalist. or she could use some pointer and beat ronda rousey. I hope she does.




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BJJSCOUT1 day ago



she has had a year plus since her last fight, her BJJ could be completely different now

Sara fought Gaff in April of 2013 it will be less than a year when they fight in February. He goes on to say Sara is still doing this now. When he has no proof of that in his video. There are numerous newer videos of Sara rolling that he did not include. I think on purpose. He saw that flaw and went to town with it. The Baszler fight was fought mostly on the feet with Baszler ever getting close to a take down. If Sara didnt take her down that flaw doesn't pop up. Not a huge leap to guess Sara has cleaned this up and changed the game plan for Rousey. And Sara is training to survive on the ground and pop up rather to getting dominant position on top. Oh well looks like bjj scout is affecting the whole hive mind and improving the line for Sara.

[ibetkellybro]

also his sycophants polish his balls talking about his videos winning them money in mma. Quick check he uploaded the GSP video after the fight and the Ronda video before the miesha fight when Ronda was -1200 and bet down. I dont see how his analysis has won anyone money. Maybe Im missing something here.

[ibetkellybro]

unsubscribing, this guy is just an ass and bjj nuthugger. No idea what the hell he is talking about

BJJSCOUT1 day ago



+UnaNoch3
yep, too bad no 125 division. Mcmann is fighting in a weight class above.

Uh What? McMann wrestled at 63 kg's and walks above 145. She said she could make 125 but would feel so bad she couldn't fight. The dude is seriously smoking crack.

[ibetkellybro]

BJJSCOUT2 days ago



Yeah I think Mcmann is too green on the ground to handle Ronda, at least Tate is quite a good grappler. And Ronda has a size advantage and has been manhandling the girls in her division who are bigger. Mcmann has some serious BJJ defensive liabilities (let alone offence) and she has to go against some one who can find the armbar from crazy scrambles and off her back. I don't really see why Mcmann is a much smaller underdog than Tate

Tate is a good grappler? She was awhile ago. But the breast implants and abuse of the horse meat has dropped her gas tank to about 1.5 rounds. Add in the brain damage from the Kedzie fight I dont see how tate should be closer odds than mcmann.

Ronda has a grand total of one armbar from her back. Early in her career. "Crazy scrambles?" You mean the crazy scramble of Ronda snatching arms from full mount or back mount? At least try to make some god damn sense.

[PAULYPOKER]

just reran my model in wolfram alpha's mathematica and McMann's implied probability is 52. Bet accordingly

So who won?