I can't drive...UFC 95!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If you ever visit cool sites like http://www.sbrodds.com/, you can find all kinds of helpful tools to assist you in deciding who to play. One of my favorite features is to look at trends. When you look at team or matchup’s trends, it gives you a great idea of what kind of a streak or rut a team might be in. So here is a trend for you: The last time that the UFC took place in Europe, Bread went 5-0 with his plays, and also hit a 4-fighter parlay. This might not mean much to some of you, but it means the world to me.
UFC 95 airs on SPIKE at 9 PM EST, but be sure to get your wagers in before 3 ET, as the telecast is not live. The card is not spectacular, but holds much potential. I find myself backing all huge chalk favorites for this one. I’m not thrilled about that, but I have to follow the money wherever it may take me. I’ll probably throw in some fight prop bets and parlays to try to increase profits. All listed lines are from 5dimes.
Diego Sanchez -320
Joe Stevenson +260
I like “Daddy” Stevenson (34-9-0). I really do. But the thing is, I am scared silly of Diego Sanchez (21-2-0). I mean, this guy truly scares me. What is the ceiling for Sanchez? If he ripped off Joe Rogan’s arms during a post-fight interview ala Travis the Chimp, would I be surprised? No, I wouldn’t be. The UFC has some ridiculous nicknames, but “Nightmare” is pretty apropos for Mr. Sanchez.
Diego scares me
Sanchez’s two losses have come against some heavy competition – Jon Fitch and Josh Koscheck. Along the way, he has taken down some tough opponents. Stevenson has also lost to some strong fighters in Kenny Florian, B.J. Penn and Josh Neer. The difference is his wins have come against some mediocre guys. Tibau, Pellegrino, Guillard and Cummo read off like a who’s who list of UFC stepping stones. I’d like to have a picture of these guys lying on their stomachs with no shirts on, with a poem about God’s footprints hanging on my wall.
The thing is, I don’t think that Sanchez can be denied. The guy is straight nuts. We’ve all wanted to smack our Daddy around from time to time. Let’s settle for watching the UFC’s “Daddy” get beat up for a few rounds. And I do feel this will go three rounds, and will be playing that also at +155.
Nate Marquardt -320
Wilson Gouveia +250
It’s been awhile since I’ve mentioned my favorite UFC phenomenon – The Pink Hamster Brigade! This fight hits hard on that level with both fighters for me. First we have Marquardt (30-8-2) who is a natural P.H. These days he’s sporting the Homeless Anchorman scruff, which could only add humor to any situation.
Marquardt’s house
Then there is the heavy-handed Gouveia (12-5-0). The last time he was in the Octagon, he was making me some sad Bread by submitting the ultimate Pink Hamster, Jason MacDonald, in the first round. I lost a bit of change on that one, and I’m still bitter.
Marquardt has quite a buzz about him. His last fight ended in a TKO victory over Martin Kampmann, much to the dismay of the Aryan Nation. Gouveia has quite a melon on his shoulders, and I look for Nate “The Great” to ring his bell often. I’m also playing that the fight won’t last the full three rounds at -320.
Josh Koschceck -550
Paulo Thiago +425
Paulo Thiago +425
OMG I think that the UFC should hold an event pitting all the Thiago’s and all the Silva/Silvia’s against each other. Our latest installment, Paulo (10-0-0), looks like a serial killer. I’m not a fan of Koscheck (19-3-0), but this will be a romp. Thus the high odds.
Kos is coming off the first ever double K.O. against Yoshiyuki Yoshida, which further solidified my thesis on Asian fighters in the UFC. Thiago still works as a cop in Brazil. My guess is that sometime in the future when I visit Rio de Janeiro for Carnival to see the pretty naked women, there is a good chance that Thiago will arrest me. Koscheck will still be fighting in the UFC at a high level. You do the math. Bonus points for the fight not going the distance at -195 as Kos puts another opponent in the hospital.
Paul Kelly -350
Troy Mandaloniz +260
Troy Mandaloniz +260
Completing my huge chalk evening is this fight buried way at the bottom of the card. I’ve watched Kelly fight a couple times and he’s a pretty exciting Brit. I also watched “Rude Boy” Mandaloniz on TUF, and feel like I have a pretty good feel of what he brings to the table as well. But this fight can be judged on two things.
Both fighters seem pretty quick to throw out the names of the UFC megastars that have befriended them. For Kelly, it’s Britain’s most popular athlete, Michael Bisping. With Mandaloniz, it’s fellow Hawaiian B.J. Penn. I’ve always disliked Bisping, but Penn’s antics following the pummeling that he received at the hands of GSP have been downright embarrassing. If I were Rude Boy, I’d distance myself from the legend like Seinfeld did to Kramer. Advantage Kelly.
But it gets worse. Here is an actual quote from Mandaloniz: “Growing up in Hawaii, it’s kind of a rough place to be brought up. You need to know how to defend yourself.” Yea, it’s really rough out there in paradise. Take the hometown UK favorite in Kelly and slam a pint for me.
Realizing that these heavy favorites could be difficult to work with for some, let me suggest a parlay. I’ll be playing Sanchez, Marquardt and Koscheck together which will pay out at close to 1-1 odds. Give me another perfect night and you can find me partying on those mean streets of Honolulu.
So scary!
