UFC 95 Line movements

brooks85 · 02-08-09, 11:01 AM

I would guess it will go down more, like -300. I have no idea but I personally think Diego outmatches him. Ill be rocking the diego/kos parlay hard.

TheGovernor11 · 02-08-09, 03:26 PM

Gonna agree with you on that one. Just got five units on Diego right now at -260. This is going to be less of a fight and more of a mugging.

brooks85 · 02-11-09, 02:28 AM

20 days until the fight and I already got -300 odds for it

I need to save up a side pot just for mma events, that way when I feel very comfortable with certain fights I can go ahead a bet it a couple weeks ahead.

shady610 · 02-12-09, 01:17 AM

i wouldnt touch this fight. Joe daddy is to unpredictable and should never be bet on. I cant even remember diegos last fight so i have no clue as to if he is still a top level contender.

TheGovernor11 · 02-12-09, 02:00 AM

Joe Daddy's not being bet on, he's being bet against

. But seriously, how is he unpredictable? He likes to use his crappy striking to get you against the fence so he can take you down and then either pound you out or submit you. He's cardio blows so if you push the pace he will fade and he has yet to beat a top tier opponent.

Diego was a beast and cardio machine at 170 and only lost to the top of the division. Even though he's a bit one dimensional (great ground fighter, okay at best striking), it won't be a problem against Joe Daddy who has terrible takedown defense because he relies too much on his overrated BJJ.

This fight is pretty easy to call. Diego is going to charge in, take Joe Daddy down, and just start raining down punches and elbows. Joe Daddy's best (only real) chance of winning this fight is if Diego doesn't make weight and is DQ'd.

brooks85 · 02-12-09, 02:22 AM

I agree. Jo-daddy is a tough sob and I think he is good 155er. But, Diego moving down in weight, he will dominate him. Diego might get a ref-stoppage but I thinking it will be a submission.

fishbowl · 02-14-09, 12:25 PM

He keeps on dropping..

(graph from http://www.bestfightodds.com)

brooks85 · 02-15-09, 01:08 AM

-320

TheGovernor11 · 02-15-09, 01:35 AM

Now the decision for you is if you think it keeps dropping or stops.

NickBaragona · 02-15-09, 09:33 AM

I think I'm going to take a parlay of Koscheck/Nate

brooks85 · 02-15-09, 11:56 AM

Wow I forgot he even started at -180. Seems many moons ago. Final stretch is here. Weigh-ins in 5 days.

TheGovernor11 · 02-15-09, 01:17 PM

You'll be better off parlaying Kosheck and Diego. I think Marquardt is a little high and should be around -240. And Gouveia has solid chance of winning this fight.

innovator · 02-15-09, 04:14 PM

nate is becoming a beast, he's gonna gsp wilson, and outwork him.

NickBaragona · 02-16-09, 08:45 AM

Is a Parlay of

Sanchez inside distance +115
Nate Marquardt -270
Josh Koshcheck -450

How risky is Sanchez finishing the fight? I really like the odds.

TheGovernor11 · 02-16-09, 09:41 AM

Marquardt's always been a beast and is (or at least should be) the number two contender behind Yushin Okami. But Gouveia has the potential to win this fight and I just think the odds are a little too high to bet on Marquardt. Regardless, it should be a good scrap.

Nick, that's a pretty sound parlay if I say so myself. Diego's going to want to make a big statement in his first fight at lightweight and stopping Joe Daddy will definitely do that. I wouldn't say it's a lock and go bet the house on it or anything but if I could, I'd make that play.

NickBaragona · 02-16-09, 01:59 PM

Yeah, I'm going to make it a small play, which is 2% of my bankroll. I put 5% on Koscheck straight up, and 5% on a parlay of Koscheck and Marquardt.

The President · 02-17-09, 08:42 PM

Any of you guys just lke the "Fight Won't go 3 Round Dist." with 5Dimes. I played it at -155 and it's now -185. I like that better than taking Diego at around -300...plus we can always get a 'backdoor' cover...you never know!

TheGovernor11 · 02-17-09, 10:08 PM

I haven't deposited at 5Dimes yet (been too lazy) but if Bodog had that prop I'd take it. Like I said before, Diego will overwhelm Joe Daddy and finish this fight either in the first or second round.

fishbowl · 02-18-09, 07:15 AM

I'm on the opposite side of that one. I don't think Sanchez will be able to finish Stevenson. I doubt he's gonna submit him and last time Stevenson lost by TKO/KO was 9 years ago. At +155 it's a great bet imo.

Skanless1 · 02-19-09, 12:23 AM

don't think stevenson will make it to the 3rd round... diego's a man on a mission and his intensity will be too much for stevenson.

like koschek also; he's really been on a roll. Etim also looking nice.

only dog i'd consider is sonnen.

TheGovernor11 · 02-19-09, 02:22 AM

Couldn't agree with you more on the Sanchez fight. I see it the exact same way.

I'd be careful playing Sonnen. I was looking into him earlier today but realized that I was just buying into the hype. More so, he matches up terribly against Maia. Simpely, he's a ground fighter who's severely over matched on the ground. The only reason why people (myself included) would even consider betting him is because he beat a shell of Paulo Filho's former self.

walbjj · 02-19-09, 08:21 AM

what do u mean twice beat? he beat him the second fight, lost the first on an armbar, but he was winning the fight

TheGovernor11 · 02-19-09, 08:39 AM

Thanks, nice catch. Post edited.

Skanless1 · 02-20-09, 01:34 AM

agreed, i'm not saying that he'll win the fight, i'm just saying the value might be worth a small bet on him.. i don't think a sonnen win is out of the question.

TheGovernor11 · 02-20-09, 05:27 PM

I agree that the win's not out of the question. It's just that most books aren't giving good enough odds. I feel around +300 he'd be worth playing for value. I like his chances to win as much as I like Gouveia's chances to win.

shantystar · 03-29-09, 08:09 PM

googluck next time too,message me for any help.

shantystar · 03-29-09, 08:12 PM

googluck next time too,message me for any help.

shantystar · 03-29-09, 08:15 PM

googluck next time too,message me for any help.