MMA Predictions

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  • onemorebet
    SBR Rookie
    • 01-25-09
    • 41

    #1
    MMA Predictions
    Jon Jones vs Stephan Bonnar

    You make a sound argument for Bonnar but you seem to have left out some the the crucial negative aspects that go along with him. He was suspended for using steroids after his first fight with Griffin and has not been the same fighter since then. The use of steroids puts a strain on tendons and ligaments with the expansion of muscle mass and leads to serious injury...Coincidence Bonnar has been out for 15 months due to a serious knee injury?? Maybe but he has not been the same fighter since he was caught he has lost twice and beat scrubs that in no way resemble the style of Jon Jones. Jones has superior wrestling and I would compare him to a raw form of Rashad Evans given his wrestling background. But Rashad is the champ?? Right but he also had a terrible reach advantage against Bonnar which led to the fight going to a decision. Jones is 6' 4'' and a better wrestler and I'm betting he actually knows what he is getting into in this fight. Bonnar look really bad against Evans who had no idea what to do on top of the guard and Bonnar's "superior" ground game looked terrible. I see this fight going much of the same way. Jones will push the pace and rack up point with takedowns and have a better defense. We saw in the last fight he had a strong chin and Bonnar is extremely slow and methodical. Someone as unorthodox as Jones is tough to fight because he is unpredictable. I'm betting the ring rust, lack of roids, and slow pace in Bonnar will lead to a decision in favor of Jones because he will predict the pace. I could be wrong but at least there is a better risk reward value at a +140...

    Also, does anybody remember the 1st fight on Affliction?? The kids name was Green and listed his style of fighting as "hood". He was so bad but was unpredictable and if is wasn't for his complete lack of knowledge and 3 blows under the belt, this kid could have taken this fight to a victory. Jones was the same way. He had two low blows and was throwing SPINNING BACK FISTS haha as his offense that he learned from movies and youtuube videos... Since then he has been training and learned some technique

    I'm taking the true athlete here in Jones because you can't teach speed and this kid has something...

    First Pick Jon Jones +140

    Other strong leans...
    Machida -300 (I like Silva but he is always looking to put on a show... I need to see some more video of these two fighters because Silva looked sloppy in his last fight (was caught on a kick to the head in rd 1) and would like to see if he could finish this fight on the ground...


    Jon Jones -600 LOCK
    Nate Diaz -125 LOCK (watch Guida's last fight on Fight Night...He had no KO power with his punches, looked sloppy on his feet, and couldn't keep Danzig on his back. Clay will be sloppy and try to push the pace and set himself up for Nate... Also Guida never seems like he is willing to improve his came and seems content with what he has, he will come out swinging and make a pretty slam but don't be suprised to see him tap against Nate)
    Matt Arroyo -180 (Backed out of fight in TUF claimed and injury but have you seen Dan "pretty Boy" Cramer's heel hook loss on TUF?? Terrible fighter and fought sloppy with no knock out threat...At least Arroyo was ranked 2nd to Danzig on TUF 6)
    BJ Penn +135 Thats right I said it... GSP has worse standup and can get tapped on the ground... The only way Penn can lose is if he does not have the stamina and I'm not betting against someone as experienced as BJ will really let it become a factor in a fight at this magnitude... Penn was robbed in the first fight and must win this time in order to make his statement...Again you can't teach natural ability even if GSP is taking shots of HGH in the ass!!
    You think muscle mass means you are in shape?? Watch Victor Belfort vs Randy the "natural" and see how steroids did for him. (Belfort) More muscle mass means more oxygen needed to be fed to help in recovery time... Regardless of the supplements GSP is currently taking the point is I don't want to hear how good and in shape he looks at the weigh-in from brainless posts...Muscle mass means nothing in MMA and does not mean you are physically fit to withstrand a 5 round fight. Jumping over hurdles really fast like GSP did on primetime means nothing to me and the outcome of this fight.
  • onemorebet
    SBR Rookie
    • 01-25-09
    • 41

    #2
    Also

    Take a look at this Stephan Bonnar interview...Watch him bounce and jitter while answering questions- Does he look like he is ready for this fight? He shouldn't be working on his stand-up but rather looking to get some submissions because that is the only way he can finish this fight. His problem is that he never looks to finsih because he is not a boxer. "He doesn't like us MMA guys" in reference to Floyd? Then why are you training there?
    Also watch stephan work out and see how slow he moves and then take an educated guess as to whether he will be able to keep up with the fast moving and more athletic 21 year old National Champion wrestler (pinned every opponent except final match) and All-American Greco Roman Wrestler in Jon Jones...

    Comment
    • Bread
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 03-16-08
      • 23726

      #3
      LOL...I'm against you on every pick you've posted. And truth be told, I picked on who had the funniest last name.

      Take care.
      Comment
      • SportsLockPicks
        SBR MVP
        • 12-03-07
        • 3386

        #4
        bonnar will knock his ass out cold
        Comment
        • brooks85
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 01-05-09
          • 44709

          #5
          did you even watch jones last fight? could have been first fight jitters, possible, but no way i would bet on him. Also, this isn't a wrestling match.
          Comment
          • onemorebet
            SBR Rookie
            • 01-25-09
            • 41

            #6
            Watch this video Bonnar never did this!

            Comment
            • onemorebet
              SBR Rookie
              • 01-25-09
              • 41

              #7
              Dan Cramer gassed in rd 1

              Wow he sucks

              Comment
              • tsilvetti
                SBR High Roller
                • 01-26-09
                • 156

                #8
                Strongly liked the write up on Jones , I too will be betting on him , Jones has great wrestling skills and thats huge , Bonnar will look to slow this fight down but I feel Jones will come at him with a high tempo , Bonnar being off 15 months I just dont think hes going to be able to bounce back to what he once was.

                NASTY KO!


                Tottaly diagree with you saying Diaz is a lock ( cant help it , im a huge Guida fan )
                Comment
                • onemorebet
                  SBR Rookie
                  • 01-25-09
                  • 41

                  #9
                  You're I did not put Diaz in a parlay because of Diaz always takes a beating but Guida hasn't shown a stron enough ground and pound for three rounds to convince me and I think he has an advantage of the fight if it goes to a decision. Here are my finals plays...

                  Penn: Who has Pierre beat that makes him such a strong favorite? I went over the fight Pierre vs Koscheck and was shocked to see how close the match was. The Pierre went on to beat the 35 year old Hughes and Matt Serra and those fights mean nothing to me. Penn is better on his feet and on the ground. Watch this fight with Koscheck and look for Pierre on top of the guard. His base is vulnerable and wouldn't be surprised to see him swept to the mount tonight.
                  http://mmavideolinks.to/fighter-vide...-koscheck.html

                  Jone Jones: Bonnar is slow and has been out of the game. I see this a lot like the fight against Evans for Bonnar. I bet Jones here and cover the risk with a parlay from the undercard.

                  Diaz: Clay Guida fights to impress the crowd and his win over Danzig means nothing to me. His fight against Huerta sums it all up, he gains confidence and was defeated in the 3rd. Diaz takes beatings but stays calm and finds ways to finish by constantly working for subs. Guida doesn't hit hard enough to scare me off this play.

                  Chris Wilson
                  Jon Fitch
                  Jake O'Brien
                  Matt Arroyo
                  I would make different parlays with these picks but evey name on here is someone who I feel is going to win today. Since 2005 favorites are 76-25 in the UFC. I think the main reason for this is because the undercards who do not make the cut on tv are used to develop prospects. The Ufc wants to build up their brand names to use them again next time. I've gone over film on all of these picks and their opponents and feel really confident with what I have.
                  Comment
                  • onemorebet
                    SBR Rookie
                    • 01-25-09
                    • 41

                    #10
                    UC Fight Night

                    Rich Clementi vs. Gleison Tibau
                    Rich-is 32 and 12 with 14 subs and 10 knockouts, he has 8 decision victories and 7 lost by decision. This tells us he can at least push the pace. Has lost to (6-0) Gray Maynard,(12-7) Roan Carneiro (BJJ training), Din Thomas, and wrestler Caol Uno (27-9). He has beaten Terry Etim, Sam Stout, Melvin Maynard, Antoine Skinner, Anthony Johnson, Kyle Gibbons, and Ross Pointon.
                    Gleison Tibau has one inch height advantage and is 15-6. Lost to Nick Diaz in 2006 and moved to the lightweight. Has then beat Jason Dent, Antonio Moreno, Jeff Cox, Terry Etim, and then recently lost to Tyson Griffin and Joe Stevenson. He is a BJJ fighter and hasn’t beaten any good competition.
                    http://mmavideolinks.to/fighter-videos/212.html (Gleison’s fights)
                    http://mmavideolinks.to/fighter-videos/152.html (Clementi’s fights)
                    Rob Emerson (9-6) vs. Kurt Pellegrino 12-4
                    All of Kurt’s fights- http://mmavideolinks.to/fighter-videos/148.html
                    Kurt lost to Stevenson, Drew Fickett, and Nate Diaz
                    This is an article about one of Emerson’s opponents and his lack of talent. The guy was 13-2 but 0-2 in the UFC.
                    http://mmafrenzy.com/1779/ufc-81-rob-emerson-vs-keita-nakamura/
                    Just by looking at this You have to go Kurt, but I’ll still watch the tapes.
                    Mac Danzig vs. Josh Neer
                    http://mmavideolinks.to/fighter-videos/131.html Danzig fights
                    http://mmavideolinks.to/fighter-videos/147.html Neer fights
                    I'll get into these then check out more later...Also in case you don't know neer was arrested on Jan, 2, I wonder if he is training hard check it out.
                    Comment
                    • onemorebet
                      SBR Rookie
                      • 01-25-09
                      • 41

                      #11
                      UFC Fight Night 17 Locks

                      Kurt Pellegrino
                      Cain
                      Anthony "Rumble" Jones
                      Comment
                      • onemorebet
                        SBR Rookie
                        • 01-25-09
                        • 41

                        #12
                        Picks

                        Cain Velasquez is my parlay man for this event. I also have a lot of confidence in Joe Lauzon. His experience is the key in this fight. He has trained with some of the best and his family breeds fighters. Jeremy Stephens is a very sloppy fighter who will drop his hands going for the knockout. I give him the power edge standing up, but Lauzon will get this fight to the ground and finish strong. Dan Miller is another strong lean for this bought. Fighting in an IFL league is tough, especially because of the short time between fights. Jake is strong and an impressive wrestling background. The fight that sold me on Dan Miller was that against Ryan McGivern. McGivern fights out of the Miletich camp, a wrestler himself, and strong on his feet. I think Jake is too young and trigger happy to fend off Miller for three rounds. Miller has really impressive standup and can see him winning standing up or on the ground. I can't see him laying on his back taking a ground and pound. He did lose to Messenzio, but that was a long time ago. Still not sold on Kurt yet because of his shit fight with stevenson. Emerson also looks like he is taking something. His physical condition has changed and turned his career around. Must be protein shakes...
                        I am leaning on Danzig because his boxing has much improved and also looking to parlay Anthony Johnson. Rumble is naturally 30lbs heavier than his division and will be too big for luigi. He had ten lbs to cut as of Sunday and seems to be on track. His last loss was on short notice and had to cut a lot off weight fast.
                        Comment
                        • Bread
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 03-16-08
                          • 23726

                          #13
                          Oh no I'm on the same side as you for this one. There goes my bankroll
                          Comment
                          • onemorebet
                            SBR Rookie
                            • 01-25-09
                            • 41

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Bread
                            Oh no I'm on the same side as you for this one. There goes my bankroll
                            Hahaha...
                            You know when you saw my picks you began the Gibson fist pump in victory. I know Cain is my lock of the night hands down. A close second is Joe Lauzon. The reason is the Jeremy Stephens fight vs Rafeal dos Anjos in UFC 91. This is a perfect example of why you should watch fights and not just look at results on paper. Rafael ended round one nearly dislocating the shoulder of Jeremy. Jeremy was taken down when Rafael was in trouble on his feet, had his guard passed easily, and couldn't recompose from his back. Rafael is nothing special and clearly is not as strong as Jeremy. Jeremy also lost to Spencer Fisher, an opponent who also fought Dan Lauzon-Joes bro-. Dan was in total control and dominating, until he gassed late in the round, at only 18 years of age. Joe Lauzon is vulnerable to a wrestler with great takedowns and a great base. Jeremy does not fit this profile.
                            I think Cain and Joe Lauzon is a lock in a parlay, and will also play Dan Miller and Cain Velasquez in a parlay to cover myself on either end.
                            Comment
                            • brooks85
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 01-05-09
                              • 44709

                              #15
                              aha playing six-ways to kevin bacon are we?? Cole miller is a very similar fighter to Lauzon, and look what stephens did to him.
                              Lauzon is FAR from a lock. If anything, he is at a disadvantage. He has been KO'd 2 times and take a closer look at Stephens only 2 submission loses, you'll notice something. We saw what happens when a tougher/stronger opponent,K-flo, fought J-lau and I expect stephens to do the same. Also, Fisher is a elite figher, and the fact Stephens went 3 rounds with him mean something.
                              Comment
                              • brooks85
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 01-05-09
                                • 44709

                                #16
                                ahhah HOW DID I KNOW. I just watched the Dan lauzon/Fisher fight. If you call the 4 mins he spent on top with no serious damage domination I would love to know what fights you are comparing that too. That was called controlling a fight, not even close to dominating. Lauzon didn't gas either, he caught some knees, one to the mouth, then a flying knee, then a knee to the abdomen.

                                this fight has nothing to do with the other one, imo, too long ago and all 3 are better fighters by now. There is no doubt in my mind now, lauzon can beat stephens but Im betting on a KO or ref stoppage.
                                Comment
                                • brooks85
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 01-05-09
                                  • 44709

                                  #17
                                  im liking cain/pellegrino/miller parlay 1.57/1.

                                  and a small bet on stojnic/pellegrino/miller parlay 10/1.
                                  If you see any of stjonic fights you have to like his "chances." The motto every fighter has a punchers chance rings true here. Cain is a rookie, only 4 fights, none of which have gone past the first round. He is not battle tested. Stojnic, though sloppy, always pushes forward. I mean always. I fully expect Cain to win but i have to put a little on those odds.
                                  Comment
                                  • brooks85
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 01-05-09
                                    • 44709

                                    #18
                                    .
                                    Comment
                                    • onemorebet
                                      SBR Rookie
                                      • 01-25-09
                                      • 41

                                      #19
                                      Lauzon's gasping for air and open mouth was because of a knee?? Not gassed from coming out hard and early? Thats why he couldn't throw punches in defense for the final 45 seconds of the round?? Because it hurt? I call his takedowns and constant punching Fish in the face a beatdown. Controlling would mean passing someone's guard and maintaiining side-mount. Dominating is MULTIPLE TAKEDOWNS, standing in an open guard landing shots, and then passing. I was shocked when Dan lost because he was dominating this fight. He controlled everything including the tempo.
                                      Comment
                                      • brooks85
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 01-05-09
                                        • 44709

                                        #20
                                        he had fisher in a bodyclinch and got kneed right in the face,they separated, then he got kneed right in the face by a flying knee, that is not gassing, that it called getting rocked.

                                        AND besides its completely irrelevant, it happened over 2 years ago and not even the same lauzon.
                                        Comment
                                        • brooks85
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 01-05-09
                                          • 44709

                                          #21
                                          here is something to think about. How can you control a fight while your gassing?? He had control of that fight, right until he caught a knee.
                                          Comment
                                          • onemorebet
                                            SBR Rookie
                                            • 01-25-09
                                            • 41

                                            #22
                                            What does that mean at least he went three rounds? So did Griffin with Rampage but what happened with Rashad Evans? Do you think Evans can beat Rampage? Lauzon lost to Florian, STephens to DIN THOMAS... as long as you want to throw out some past fights why not that? It was Lauzon's recent loss? Lauzon is so much more technical and stephens looked really bad against Rafael. He looked bad because he doesn't know shit about the ground. He sucks and could defeat opponents who try to fight with strength because he is a tough kid. Lauzon doesn't fight with strength. If you bet Stephens pray for a ko
                                            Comment
                                            • onemorebet
                                              SBR Rookie
                                              • 01-25-09
                                              • 41

                                              #23
                                              It isn't even about if he was gassed. He shoulkd have won the fight but shit happens. My point is look how an 18 year old Lauzon did against a common opponent. This is what Lauzon will do all day on stephens
                                              Comment
                                              • onemorebet
                                                SBR Rookie
                                                • 01-25-09
                                                • 41

                                                #24
                                                Contest

                                                Pick a winner for each fight, whoever has less wins has to not post for a month? Deal?
                                                Comment
                                                • brooks85
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 01-05-09
                                                  • 44709

                                                  #25
                                                  ya im going to have pray for a KO from a guy who has 10 KO's out of 14 wins, only 2 submission loses, and only two of this 17 fights have gone the distance.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • brooks85
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 01-05-09
                                                    • 44709

                                                    #26
                                                    ive already listed my picks
                                                    Comment
                                                    • onemorebet
                                                      SBR Rookie
                                                      • 01-25-09
                                                      • 41

                                                      #27
                                                      There you go. Beating Nick Walker and Vern Jefferson is very impressive... Just Call Din Thomas' fight, which he did prepare for, a fluke loss. Going back to Lauzon's loss in Feb of 06' means nothing to someone who is 23. Stephens won fights in which he should have lost. He was down 2 rounds to rafael and he landed a luch shot.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Bread
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 03-16-08
                                                        • 23726

                                                        #28
                                                        Yea, Cain might be worth putting in some parlays. Nothing worth playing alone. GL.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • onemorebet
                                                          SBR Rookie
                                                          • 01-25-09
                                                          • 41

                                                          #29
                                                          Bets

                                                          Lauzon
                                                          velasquez
                                                          miller
                                                          Johnson
                                                          Catone

                                                          If I had to pick
                                                          Pellegrino
                                                          Danzig
                                                          Clementi
                                                          Greach
                                                          Riddle
                                                          Comment
                                                          • onemorebet
                                                            SBR Rookie
                                                            • 01-25-09
                                                            • 41

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by onemorebet
                                                            Lauzon
                                                            velasquez
                                                            miller
                                                            Johnson
                                                            Catone

                                                            If I had to pick
                                                            Pellegrino
                                                            Danzig
                                                            Clementi
                                                            Greach
                                                            Riddle
                                                            5-0 on my bets tonight, and 10-2 on card predictions
                                                            Comment
                                                            • onemorebet
                                                              SBR Rookie
                                                              • 01-25-09
                                                              • 41

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by brooks85
                                                              aha playing six-ways to kevin bacon are we?? Cole miller is a very similar fighter to Lauzon, and look what stephens did to him.
                                                              Lauzon is FAR from a lock. If anything, he is at a disadvantage. He has been KO'd 2 times and take a closer look at Stephens only 2 submission loses, you'll notice something. We saw what happens when a tougher/stronger opponent,K-flo, fought J-lau and I expect stephens to do the same. Also, Fisher is a elite figher, and the fact Stephens went 3 rounds with him mean something.
                                                              Far from a lock? I think not my friend... Keep trying buddy I'll give an A for effort
                                                              Comment
                                                              • brooks85
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 01-05-09
                                                                • 44709

                                                                #32
                                                                ahah did you even watch the fight??? hahahahah a LOCK
                                                                Comment
                                                                • brooks85
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 01-05-09
                                                                  • 44709

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by onemorebet

                                                                  Penn: Who has Pierre beat that makes him such a strong favorite? I went over the fight Pierre vs Koscheck and was shocked to see how close the match was. The Pierre went on to beat the 35 year old Hughes and Matt Serra and those fights mean nothing to me. Penn is better on his feet and on the ground. Watch this fight with Koscheck and look for Pierre on top of the guard. His base is vulnerable and wouldn't be surprised to see him swept to the mount tonight.
                                                                  http://mmavideolinks.to/fighter-vide...-koscheck.html
                                                                  .
                                                                  just a few of the many quotes you have given us ha
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • onemorebet
                                                                    SBR Rookie
                                                                    • 01-25-09
                                                                    • 41

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Ufc 95

                                                                    Sanchez
                                                                    Maia
                                                                    Gouveia
                                                                    Koscheck
                                                                    Jr Dos Santos
                                                                    Cobb
                                                                    Grove
                                                                    Kelly
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Bread
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 03-16-08
                                                                      • 23726

                                                                      #35
                                                                      My, what big chalk you have.

                                                                      I'm with you except on Gouveia. GL kind sir.
                                                                      Comment
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