Major line moves alert

[Catchn_Picks]

Is anybody else noticing some big moves right now? Thought I would be smart and play Spider at -220 before the public does...that is what I get for thinking. He is -192 right now on 5D.

I thought I would wait for Gonzaga line to go up via the public late and play Herman who is now +148???

I laid -220 on Cub before his line jumps late...what square is going to play Siver?

Cub now -178.

Damn!!!

[NunyaBidness]

The market has changed dramatically in the past year. Predicting line movement was the thing I was best at, I expected late movement to come in on Silva, Siver, Gracie, Munoz, Herman, and Leben. Looks like 2 out of 6.

[rocky16]

Was really expecting the casuals to start hammering Silva as the fight approaches. Don't know what the fock is going on.

[Catchn_Picks]

I cannot believe this late money is square...makes no sense.

[rocky16]

I cannot believe this late money is square...makes no sense.

What makes it square? Its opposite of you?

[Catchn_Picks]

Weidman, Siver and Herman are far less known worldwide than Silva, Gonzaga and Cub. That's all. Most cappers would expect the less informed public looking for a bet before the fights to go with those fighters they know best.

gl

[Utilted]

The entire "Square Public" is still betting Silva; and the line keeps dropping (reverse line alert). People keep saying Weidman hasn't fought anyone are marginalizing him. He destroyed Munoz, who is not a stiff in the slightest. He's a better wrestler then Sonnen, and a much more accomplished BJJ, along with being a decent not great striker. Weidman has "wrestling victories" over both Phil Davis and Ryan Bader two supreme wrestlers who fight an entire weight class above Weidman in the UFC. Yes, Silva is the most lethal striker in the UFC and if the fight stays standing Silva will remain the champ BUT I think Weidman has the perfect skill set to finally end the Spider's Reign and at the odds "if" you can still get them at +200 I think are worth the risk. I got Weidman at +225 before they dipped again today; take Chris & enjoy the profits.

[Vaughany]

The entire "Square Public" is still betting Silva; and the line keeps dropping (reverse line alert). People keep saying Weidman hasn't fought anyone are marginalizing him. He destroyed Munoz, who is not a stiff in the slightest. He's a better wrestler then Sonnen, and a much more accomplished BJJ, along with being a decent not great striker. Weidman has "wrestling victories" over both Phil Davis and Ryan Bader two supreme wrestlers who fight an entire weight class above Weidman in the UFC. Yes, Silva is the most lethal striker in the UFC and if the fight stays standing Silva will remain the champ BUT I think Weidman has the perfect skill set to finally end the Spider's Reign and at the odds "if" you can still get them at +200 I think are worth the risk. I got Weidman at +225 before they dipped again today; take Chris & enjoy the profits.

Munoz was fat and injured, at the time he was a stiff!

[baconbets]

square public is doing what dana and chael tell them to do. UFC hype machine and mma journalists have cooperated to make weidman look like a good challenge. is it impossible for weidman to win? no, but rarely do you see this kind of effort made just to make a fight appear competitive. fighters like dan henderson, vitor belfort, and rich franklin dont need a hype machine telling the fans "these guys can fight, really, they can." weidman needs that kind of boost, because he has no record and no footage which suggest that he can win a fight against someone with silva's style or ability. paying +200 for a completely theoretical matchup advantage is beyond stupid, but mma is still confusing and complex to most of the betting public. the better lines were weidman's decision or submission props. i think one guy on this forum reportedly got +1600 for weidman via sub, which is a pretty good shot in the dark.

[Utilted]

Square Public is hammering Silva so you are just flat out incorrect with your take the Public is buying what Dana white is selling. Wiedman is an accomplished wrestler; more so then Sonnen vs better competition. He doesn't possess the same glaring weaknesses as Sonnen and Sonnen was destroying the Spider. Again, I didn't say it's a forgone conclusion, Silva is a KO artist but Silva fanboys continue to dismiss the Sonnen fights as "flukes" when he is actually vulnerable to elite wrestlers. Nothing is theoretical to the fact Wiedman opened as a 3 to 1 to 2.5 to 1 dog on most sites & now the sharpest books/casinos on the net Pinnacle/5Dimes have him at +170/+165 despite the lop sided public betting % on Silva; so either you believe Vegas is exposing their books due to "Dana White Hype" or they know Wiedman is a legit opponent & are adjusting the lines accordingly. I tend to be of the camp that Vegas knows what they are doing more then Joe Q fan public. I won't be surprised if Silva wins; he's the champ but my money is in at +225 for Wiedman & the line movement shows I'm on the right side at least with regards to value/pricing.

[jizay]

square public is doing what dana and chael tell them to do. UFC hype machine and mma journalists have cooperated to make weidman look like a good challenge. is it impossible for weidman to win? no, but rarely do you see this kind of effort made just to make a fight appear competitive.

They have done an absolutely amazing job of hyping Weidman and this fight.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Gonzaga has a foot injury?

[NunyaBidness]

Gonzaga has a foot injury?

Is this a rumor you're trying to start or is there some weight to it?

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Is this a rumor you're trying to start or is there some weight to it?

I am asking. Someone with no skin in the game made a comment that Gonzaga had some sort of foot injury. I didn't think much of it until I checked the lines and there was tremendous movement on Gonzaga. I put a little on Herman then posted the question to see if anyone could confirm the rumor. I have a feeling it is probably true. I would not have put a little on Herman if I thought otherwise.

[Utilted]

The line movement would suggest a potential foot injury; haven't heard anything official but he opened -250/-260; he's now down to -180 at most sharp books.
An for the guys continuing to claim Weidman is a product entirely of the Dana White Hype machine; the argument doesn't hold when the Vegas odd movement have been so drastic in favor of Weidman despite Silva receiving the lion's share of the public bets. Vegas books do not care about hype or who's selling what, they care about their bottom lines. Promoter hype only affects PPV numbers not betting lines.

[Utilted]

My plays for the night
2.5 units on Weidman @ +225
1 unit on Herman @+160
1 unt on Boetsch @ -120

[jizay]

My plays for the night
2.5 units on Weidman @ +225
1 unit on Herman @+160
1 unt on Boetsch @ -120

Where on earth are you getting Weidman +225 now?

[NunyaBidness]

The line movement would suggest a potential foot injury;

I guess Gonzaga, Parke, Silva, and Munoz all hurt their foot then.

[MD]

I guess Gonzaga, Parke, Silva, and Munoz all hurt their foot then.

Or maybe somebody let the fact that they all share a foot out of the bag.

[NunyaBidness]

Or maybe somebody let the fact that they all share a foot out of the bag.

So, it's Munoz fault, he broke THE foot over a year ago.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

I am asking. Someone with no skin in the game made a comment that Gonzaga had some sort of foot injury. I didn't think much of it until I checked the lines and there was tremendous movement on Gonzaga. I put a little on Herman then posted the question to see if anyone could confirm the rumor. I have a feeling it is probably true. I would not have put a little on Herman if I thought otherwise.

Well there goes $50 I'll never get back. So much for the rumor mill.

[Utilted]

Herman's toast guess gonzaga's foot is fine...oh well!
I got +225 on Weidman last night when i saw the lines were shifting.

[Utilted]

baconbets, Jizay, and Vaughany those ripping my take in this thread...The lack of a "nice bet" or even the rare "I wasn't as informed" as you comment would have been nice but typical of these boards so it's no big deal. Quotes from earlier "Dana white and MMA journalists hyping this up pretending this guy can fight" & on Wiedman beating up Munoz who looked great last night as well "Munoz was fat and a stiff when Wiedman beat him so that means nothing". One of the Silva fanboys on these boards should probably go wake him up, it's getting late this morning and as he's still sleeping.
I'll take solace in the nice 5.5 unit win +225 paid; and just hope a few other folks took my advice and made some dough too.

[MD]

baconbets, Jizay, and Vaughany those ripping my take in this thread...The lack of a "nice bet" or even the rare "I wasn't as informed" as you comment would have been nice but typical of these boards so it's no big deal. Quotes from earlier "Dana white and MMA journalists hyping this up pretending this guy can fight" & on Wiedman beating up Munoz who looked great last night as well "Munoz was fat and a stiff when Wiedman beat him so that means nothing". One of the Silva fanboys on these boards should probably go wake him up, it's getting late this morning and as he's still sleeping.
I'll take solace in the nice 5.5 unit win +225 paid; and just hope a few other folks took my advice and made some dough too.

Does it tell you anything about yourself that MD, one of the biggest douchebags on SBR, thinks you're a pretentious douchebag?

Seriously, I hope you leave and never post again. SBR doesn't need more people like you.

[Utilted]

Sorry you take gambling losses so hard; typical of a square or emotional bettor. Anderson Silva got KO'd, I won some money; had the roles been reversed I'd have gladly stated "Hey I was on the wrong side of that one, Silva is great (which I already alluded to in earlier posts) when commenting on the fight before it happened. I tried to have a legit dialogue pre-fight as to why I was betting Wiedman was a solid play, some guys participated with legitimate insight on both sides; some did not. I feel no remorse calling those out who lack the intellect to have legit discussion or debate as to why someone is leaning the way they are. As for "MD" I'd have to actually care who you are before I ever worried about your opinion as to when or how I should post. You speak as if having a reputation on the SBR Boards is something to be proud of; that alone tells me all I need to know about you.

[MD]

Sorry you take gambling losses so hard; typical of a square or emotional bettor. Anderson Silva got KO'd, I won some money; had the roles been reversed I'd have gladly stated "Hey I was on the wrong side of that one, Silva is great (which I already alluded to in earlier posts) when commenting on the fight before it happened. I tried to have a legit dialogue pre-fight as to why I was betting Wiedman was a solid play, some guys participated with legitimate insight on both sides; some did not. I feel no remorse calling those out who lack the intellect to have legit discussion or debate as to why someone is leaning the way they are. As for "MD" I'd have to actually care who you are before I ever worried about your opinion as to when or how I should post. You speak as if having a reputation on the SBR Boards is something to be proud of; that alone tells me all I need to know about you.

I didn't lose last night, I was very publicly on Weidman. Doesn't change the fact that you're an idiot who joined the day of an Anderson Silva fight, posted that Anderson would lose, and then started rubbing it in people's faces when he lost in the most ridiculous way possible, as if that was some sort of likely outcome. You're exactly the kind of retard that this board attracts; the kind that thinks that any bet that cashes is a good bet, and that variance doesn't exist.

[Utilted]

See there you go again mistakenly thinking I care or follow what you are doing on these "boards". If you won money on Weidman congrats; I joined the day of the fight as I stumbled across these boards & figured I'd share my take on Weidman & see if anyone had any legitimate insight on the other side. Please spare me the big gambling buzz words like "variance" that you looked up in the "how to not sound like a square/donk guide book"; it may impress others but for someone who's been gambling for years it just appears as if you are attempting to sound smart with out actually using it in any meaningful way. You used "variance" trying to make some grand point that Weidman's KO was likely; like if pointing out that in "gambling" random occurrences (even unlikely ones) may happen is some grand knowledge only you are aware of. Ignoring that variance is essential to gambling's very nature, and basically kid's stuff in the gambling world. "Game Theory" accounts for variance in a much more in-depth and insightful way; but I'm sure you've probably written several books on the subject as you used such a big word like "variance". Also, please continue with the ad-hominem attacks such as "idiot, retard, douche" it's the easiest way to spot weak arguments, as they are the crutch of the weak. Now run along back to terrorize other people's threads I'm done busting you up for the day. If you ever decide to have a legit conversation, I'll be around these boards from now on, despite your pleas to the contrary.

[MD]

See there you go again mistakenly thinking I care or follow what you are doing on these "boards". If you won money on Weidman congrats; I joined the day of the fight as I stumbled across these boards & figured I'd share my take on Weidman & see if anyone had any legitimate insight on the other side. Please spare me the big gambling buzz words like "variance" that you looked up in the "how to not sound like a square/donk guide book"; it may impress others but for someone who's been gambling for years it just appears as if you are attempting to sound smart with out actually using it in any meaningful way. You used "variance" trying to make some grand point that Weidman's KO was likely; like if pointing out that in "gambling" random occurrences (even unlikely ones) may happen is some grand knowledge only you are aware of. Ignoring that variance is essential to gambling's very nature, and basically kid's stuff in the gambling world. "Game Theory" accounts for variance in a much more in-depth and insightful way; but I'm sure you've probably written several books on the subject as you used such a big word like "variance". Also, please continue with the ad-hominem attacks such as "idiot, retard, douche" it's the easiest way to spot weak arguments, as they are the crutch of the weak. Now run along back to terrorize other people's threads I'm done busting you up for the day. If you ever decide to have a legit conversation, I'll be around these boards from now on, despite your pleas to the contrary.

You post is too long so I only read the first sentence, but if you "don't care", then why are you taking time to reply? Degens have a lot of time it seems.

[Vaughany]

baconbets, Jizay, and Vaughany those ripping my take in this thread...The lack of a "nice bet" or even the rare "I wasn't as informed" as you comment would have been nice but typical of these boards so it's no big deal. Quotes from earlier "Dana white and MMA journalists hyping this up pretending this guy can fight" & on Wiedman beating up Munoz who looked great last night as well "Munoz was fat and a stiff when Wiedman beat him so that means nothing". One of the Silva fanboys on these boards should probably go wake him up, it's getting late this morning and as he's still sleeping.
I'll take solace in the nice 5.5 unit win +225 paid; and just hope a few other folks took my advice and made some dough too.

Also hope people didnt take ur advice on herman and boetsch!

[jizay]

baconbets, Jizay, and Vaughany those ripping my take in this thread...The lack of a "nice bet" or even the rare "I wasn't as informed" as you comment would have been nice but typical of these boards so it's no big deal. Quotes from earlier "Dana white and MMA journalists hyping this up pretending this guy can fight" & on Wiedman beating up Munoz who looked great last night as well "Munoz was fat and a stiff when Wiedman beat him so that means nothing". One of the Silva fanboys on these boards should probably go wake him up, it's getting late this morning and as he's still sleeping.
I'll take solace in the nice 5.5 unit win +225 paid; and just hope a few other folks took my advice and made some dough too.

As you can see by my 400 posts in 4 years, I don't always check back on threads right away. I also can't see where I was "ripping" your take (I was confused because I thought you said you had just taken Weidman at +225, but obviously I misread). Anyway, nice bet homie.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

See there you go again mistakenly thinking I care or follow what you are doing on these "boards". If you won money on Weidman congrats; I joined the day of the fight as I stumbled across these boards & figured I'd share my take on Weidman & see if anyone had any legitimate insight on the other side. Please spare me the big gambling buzz words like "variance" that you looked up in the "how to not sound like a square/donk guide book"; it may impress others but for someone who's been gambling for years it just appears as if you are attempting to sound smart with out actually using it in any meaningful way. You used "variance" trying to make some grand point that Weidman's KO was likely; like if pointing out that in "gambling" random occurrences (even unlikely ones) may happen is some grand knowledge only you are aware of. Ignoring that variance is essential to gambling's very nature, and basically kid's stuff in the gambling world. "Game Theory" accounts for variance in a much more in-depth and insightful way; but I'm sure you've probably written several books on the subject as you used such a big word like "variance". Also, please continue with the ad-hominem attacks such as "idiot, retard, douche" it's the easiest way to spot weak arguments, as they are the crutch of the weak. Now run along back to terrorize other people's threads I'm done busting you up for the day. If you ever decide to have a legit conversation, I'll be around these boards from now on, despite your pleas to the contrary.

And the winner by 1st round KO! The newcomer Utilted! I like your style son. You are a welcomed addition to the board.

[Utilted]

Thanks Ron_Paul; and Jizay my apologies I went back and reread your post and you are correct your post wasn't really ripping just inquiring where I got +225 my mistake to lump you in with others who weren't willing to engage in a meaningful take on the fight. Vaugh I freely admitted the 1 unit Herman pick was last second addition based on line movement & then the fake injury rumors that ended up being a dopey pick. If you look back through my original posts, I didn't start by posting claiming I am the King of All MMA picks & I'll never lose. I just stated "Weidman is a great value bet tonight due to the line movement & that his style matches up perfectly against Silva"; all the extra smack came post fight once a nobody decided to chime in to a conversation he wasn't privy to prior to the fight. In the end it's all good there's fortunately enough solid cappers & gamblers to counter act the "trolls" on these forums to keep it interesting & they are worth checking their takes from time to time on games so I'll be around.