UFC 159: Jones vs. Sonnen

[sideloaded]

probably going to one of the title loan car places with my honda civic title and putting it all on mcmann. If I lose I will lose my job also because I wont be able to get to-and-fro.

[MD]

Parlay it with Jones. Jones is the definition of a lock. Wins at least 95% here, probably more.

[Fragoel2]

I like Bisping at the current odds. And I think Magalhes has value, am I the only one?

[sideloaded]

Jones -800 is good value, I agree MD, cheal wont be 16.9 more than an average man like his first fight with silva.

[Rubber Guard]

Never been that impressed with Phil. I think Vinny may have a little value. I could see it just being a rangy kick fest from Phil tho. Roy and Bisping both seem like value to me. No way Kongo holds him against the fence without getting hit in the chin a few times.

[Grabaka]

I wish Chael could win.

[brokenbrain]

Don't you like Jones ITD @ -330 better than FTW @ -800?

[Grabaka]

I think Vinny has value. I would dare to say his standup is better than Phils and thats why i see value. But honestly this is a fight that i feel i need to watch tape cos im not possitive about it.

[Grabaka]

Don't you like Jones ITD @ -330 better than FTW @ -800?

Not for a car loan bet. But yeah, its better.

[MD]

Don't you like Jones ITD @ -330 better than FTW @ -800?

Jones is a lot more tentative than he used to be, but he should finish Sonnen. The issue is that by taking Jones ITD, you're adding uncertainty to an almost sure-thing. This is one of the most one-sided fights in championship history, but Jones winning by decision isn't unthinkable. I'm willing to accept a bit of risk, so I'll probably play Jones ITD, but for almost-free money, Jones straight is the play.

[MD]

Speaking of which:

		$100.00	$849.88	Pending	7 Team Parlay
				Win	3/2/13 11:30pm Props Fighting 1203 Gomi/Sanchez goes 3 round distance -170* vs Fight won't go 3 round distance
				Win	3/2/13 11:00pm Props Fighting 1312 Not Lombard by 3 round decision -560* vs Lombard wins by 3 round decision
				Win	3/2/13 10:00pm Props Fighting 1503 Bahadurzada/Kim goes 3 round distance -215* vs Fight won't go 3 round distance
				Win	3/2/13 9:30pm Props Fighting 1603 Tavares/Fukuda goes 3 round distance -245* vs Fight won't go 3 round distance
				Win	3/2/13 8:30pm Props Fighting 1806 Not Tokudome inside distance -280* vs Tokudome wins inside distance
				Win	3/16/13 11:00pm Props Fighting 1011 St-Pierre wins by 5 round decision -230* vs Not St-Pierre by 5 round decision
				Pending	4/27/13 11:00pm Props Fighting 1009 Jones wins inside distance -380* vs Not Jones inside distance

Soooo close.

[Vaughany]

I think Vinny has value. I would dare to say his standup is better than Phils and thats why i see value. But honestly this is a fight that i feel i need to watch tape cos im not possitive about it.

yeah. Not sure I have the confidence to play him, like you say I need to watch some more footage and get the highlight reels up next to eachother. But still, Davis' stand-up is still pretty damn bad...he gets by because he so rangy that it's difficult for opponents to get inside - and obviously if they do get inside they are opening themselves up for the takedown. I think because of his awkward frame he'll never develop decent striking, just seems so off balance. You can see his telegraphed headkicks from a mile off and he doesnt have any combinations. Straight away that makes me like Vinny more as his main weakness is obviously his stand-up and questionable ability to absorb punishment which he isnt going to have to worry too much about in this fight (unlike against Bader). And if Davis takes him to the ground which he most probably will it's not like Vinny is going to be worried or upset about that! Davis is most-likely going to be strong enough to ride it out and avoid getting subbed but this aint Brian Cann, Boetsch, Prado, or Wallace...Vinny aint gonna just be a turtle stuck on his back for three-rounds letting Davis do what he wants with them! Has potential to be a very intriguing fight, but at same time could end up being a terrible stand-up fight

[sideloaded]

Speaking of which:

		$100.00	$849.88	Pending	7 Team Parlay
				Win	3/2/13 11:30pm Props Fighting 1203 Gomi/Sanchez goes 3 round distance -170* vs Fight won't go 3 round distance
				Win	3/2/13 11:00pm Props Fighting 1312 Not Lombard by 3 round decision -560* vs Lombard wins by 3 round decision
				Win	3/2/13 10:00pm Props Fighting 1503 Bahadurzada/Kim goes 3 round distance -215* vs Fight won't go 3 round distance
				Win	3/2/13 9:30pm Props Fighting 1603 Tavares/Fukuda goes 3 round distance -245* vs Fight won't go 3 round distance
				Win	3/2/13 8:30pm Props Fighting 1806 Not Tokudome inside distance -280* vs Tokudome wins inside distance
				Win	3/16/13 11:00pm Props Fighting 1011 St-Pierre wins by 5 round decision -230* vs Not St-Pierre by 5 round decision
				Pending	4/27/13 11:00pm Props Fighting 1009 Jones wins inside distance -380* vs Not Jones inside distance

Soooo close.

should've left an open leg for sara mcmann brah

[Dwil125]

Jones itd is the anchor for like 5-6 parlays for me. I'm thinking about taking jones by ud just in case, I have no idea what the point spread would be on jones.

[MD]

yeah. Not sure I have the confidence to play him, like you say I need to watch some more footage and get the highlight reels up next to eachother. But still, Davis' stand-up is still pretty damn bad...he gets by because he so rangy that it's difficult for opponents to get inside - and obviously if they do get inside they are opening themselves up for the takedown. I think because of his awkward frame he'll never develop decent striking, just seems so off balance. You can see his telegraphed headkicks from a mile off and he doesnt have any combinations. Straight away that makes me like Vinny more as his main weakness is obviously his stand-up and questionable ability to absorb punishment which he isnt going to have to worry too much about in this fight (unlike against Bader). And if Davis takes him to the ground which he most probably will it's not like Vinny is going to be worried or upset about that! Davis is most-likely going to be strong enough to ride it out and avoid getting subbed but this aint Brian Cann, Boetsch, Prado, or Wallace...Vinny aint gonna just be a turtle stuck on his back for three-rounds letting Davis do what he wants with them! Has potential to be a very intriguing fight, but at same time could end up being a terrible stand-up fight

Davis's problem isn't his frame, it's that he's afraid to get hit. He doesn't have any chin issues from what we've seen, but he's terrified of eating a punch to the face, and his striking game is intended to reflect that. He doesn't make any secrets of it from the way he fights.

[Vaughany]

Davis's problem isn't his frame, it's that he's afraid to get hit. He doesn't have any chin issues from what we've seen, but he's terrified of eating a punch to the face, and his striking game is intended to reflect that. He doesn't make any secrets of it from the way he fights.

maybe, but you cant deny that his physique is very unusual. Only have to look at him at weighins and see his ridiculous wide lats...just looks awkward and like he doesnt really know how to use it to his advantage (his reach). BUt yeah, he clearly doesnt like getting hit

[Sacrelicious]

Jones itd is the anchor for like 5-6 parlays for me. I'm thinking about taking jones by ud just in case, I have no idea what the point spread would be on jones.

-9.5 I'd assume. I would not expect a good price on it either.

[MD]

maybe, but you cant deny that his physique is very unusual. Only have to look at him at weighins and see his ridiculous wide lats...just looks awkward and like he doesnt really know how to use it to his advantage (his reach). BUt yeah, he clearly doesnt like getting hit

Bullshit. You expect me to believe that you're English and you haven't seen Action Man toys a thousand times?

[Vaughany]

never heard of it! I just had Ken and Barbie dolls!

[MD]

never heard of it! I just had Ken and Barbie dolls!

Must have set your hog analysis back five years.

[Sacrelicious]

Really good chance I make a very large play on Jones here.

-700 is an excellent price.

[Beelzebubzy]

never heard of it! I just had Ken and Barbie dolls!

You are like a Ken doll... Neither of you have balls

[Sacrelicious]

You are like a Ken doll... Neither of you have balls

[Digo]

Really good chance I make a very large play on Jones here.

-700 is an excellent price.

I am sure it is. It's even better than JDS vs Mir, like MD said: "Jones is the definition of a lock". Sonnen doesn't have even the punch power to do the miracle. Jones just lose this fight if he has a heart attack or something like that inside the octagon.

[Vaughany]

You are like a Ken doll... Neither of you have balls

lol

[Beelzebubzy]

lol

I love you V the same way gabe loves nunya

[getlucky2win]

i bet jones v sonnen over 1.5 rnds -120. now -135 at dimes

[Vaughany]

[The iron sheik]

I really don't see what Vinny has to offer against Phil

[Beelzebubzy]

I really don't see what Vinny has to offer against Phil

Play is Phil straight hedged with in round 1

[MD]

Phil by decision is free money.

[Sacrelicious]

Phil by decision is free money.

I'm not taking the risk that he does not sub him.

Phil straight up is a large play for me.

[MD]

I'm not taking the risk that he does not sub him.

Phil straight up is a large play for me.

That Phil Davis doesn't sub Vinny Magalhaes?

[Sacrelicious]

That Phil Davis doesn't sub Vinny Magalhaes?

Correct.

Think of it like your play on Jones straight up that you described a few posts up, I do not believe Davis does not have the tools to sub Vinny.

I'll be large on Phil FTW.

[ArchieUD]

Looks like I will be paying some juice on this card!

Unibet har released Bedford (+140) vs Perez (-200), anybody think this could turn out to be a mini version of Fitch vs E.Silva?