UFC 158 predictions, tail for a winning night

[Rubber Guard]

Hunt +320 vs. JDS is a steal.

[Vaughany]

Hunt +320 vs. JDS is a steal.

will probably only get better

[The Fobfather]

Laid a hundo on it. If it gets significantly better, probably put more on it.

[Vaughany]

You played them drawnobet i guess....whta price?

unfortunately it's gonna be 2am over here when this game starts so im gonna be asleep! Im arbing out with the Tigres +115 line so got a risk free play on Seattle to win 50 squid. Got a couple biggish plays tomorrow that Im more confident in and dont wanna be going in to them with a minus figure cos Seattle shiit the bed!

[gabe]

Agree with Dillashaw. Just pay the juice, he doesnt lose here. He can come in on his worse day and still out work this guy. Dillashaw is a top prospect with strong wrestling. Tamura is a B-league'r; I cant see him staying around for long.

Worth the juice for a straight play but would rather use him in parlays

[Rubber Guard]

will probably only get better

I was thinking the opposite. If the public is any bit behind Hunt like I think it is.

But I'll take your word over mine on the subject.

If JDS chooses to stand...always has thus far....how he seems like he loves boxing and offense.....how he is Brazilian, it is basically a pickem fight. Maybe JDS slightly because of his movement, long punches, and speed. Even if JDS wants to wrestle, I think Hunt proved his is capable of some sort of escape or or stuffing a TD or 2.

[Jesus Christ]

Good luck Gabe...

[gabe]

Good luck Gabe...

Damn man, I've missed ya. I was gone for the forum for the past three months myself

[Vaughany]

Well, sounds like you got a good deal there. Really my guy is dumb and i just dont watch soccer anymore. So you are better off without me. Im recruiting a new guy now tho. I must know someone good at this.

BTW im gonna tail you....fuuukkk etttttt!!!!

Ca$$$h it cuzin! Seattle win 3-1. Got lucky tho as they were 1-0 down and then Tigres had a player sent-off on stroke of half-time.

[gabe]

Adding parlay

Marquardt +145
+
Dillashaw -520


and thinking about

Marquardt +145
+
Cruickshank -170

[Sacrelicious]

Hunt +320 vs. JDS is a steal.

I dont know if I would call it a "steal", that might be too strong a word.

Its a decent line though... and V is right, it will get better.

[getlucky2win]

Adding parlay

Marquardt +145
+
Dillashaw -520


and thinking about

Marquardt +145
+
Cruickshank -170

Cruickshank -110 now cuz. i put a lil on it

[Dwil125]

Im just hoping dillashaw doesnt take one of tamura's shots flush, the guy hits really hard for a bantamweight. I think thats the only way issei can win

[gabe]

Johny Hendricks via 3rd Round KO

Wait til before fight time to get best odds on him, will probably end up the dog at +120

[Hannibal]

Johny Hendricks via 3rd Round KO

Wait til before fight time to get best odds on him, will probably end up the dog at +120

sounds highly unlikely to me
hendricks has a way of catching guys while they're still cold, but if they make it out of the first round, they generally go the distance

not to mention condit gets stronger as the fight progresses, and has one of the best ability to take shots and recover. I think hendricks on the other hand slows down, and loses his effectiveness after guys get a good read on his ability to close distance and land with his short arms
If you like hendricks its either 1st rd KO or decision

[gabe]

I think if he loses at least 1 of the first 2 rounds, he will come out desperately looking to finish. don't fock wid a texan who puts his mind to somethin, yo.

i don't think he will start the fight looking for a finish.

[Hannibal]

unless you have some inside information.. i dont think its wise to predict that a fighter will fight outside of his character
my assessment is based on evidence shown in all his previous outings

what are your basing your theory on? i think its dangerous make predictions on a fighter's mentality such as "i think he's more motivated than usual for this fight", or "i think he's gonna want to knock him out right away", or "i think he's going to try to sit back and not go for the knockout until later"

[Vaughany]

Hendricks KO'ing Condit in third round when he'll probably be tired...ambitious!

[Hannibal]

I should probably stay away from this one..
I have a bad read on condit. I've faded him against diaz, mcdonald, kim, ellenberger and got burned on them all

something about condit vibes with me the wrong way... maybe its his tiny pink nipples, or the fact that he talks in such a deep voice that it seems incredibly forced. Like he's trying so hard to exude manliness with his scruffy beard and the voice sounds like a teenager trying to impersonate a tough guy.

I know you love him though, V

[Rubber Guard]

I dont know if I would call it a "steal", that might be too strong a word.

Its a decent line though... and V is right, it will get better.

If it was guaranteed that they would both stand for 3 rounds what would you set the line at? I would call it almost even. The toughest striker JDS has ever fought is Roy Nelson. Hunt is probably a better striker, he just lacks in physical skills, length, height, quickness, overall athleticism.

And you have to think this has a good chance of staying standing. JDS likes to bang and put on a show. Even if he takes Hunt down it is no promise Hunt is in grave danger.

I think the line is ridiculous.

[Rubber Guard]

Hendricks said he believes a grinding win still gets him a title shot. And it basically has too. I think if things aren't going his way he will defiantly look for a TD or a wall grind.

[Vaughany]

I should probably stay away from this one..
I have a bad read on condit. I've faded him against diaz, mcdonald, kim, ellenberger and got burned on them all

something about condit vibes with me the wrong way... maybe its his tiny pink nipples, or the fact that he talks in such a deep voice that it seems incredibly forced. Like he's trying so hard to exude manliness with his scruffy beard and the voice sounds like a teenager trying to impersonate a tough guy.

I know you love him though, V

I do have a semi for him!

[Hannibal]

must be the nipples

[Vaughany]

must be the nipples

mostly the deep menacing tone of his voice

[GigaOuts]

Good luck Gabe...

Hope you don't lose too big on Struve since you like him so much.

I dodge the bullet when I have 5.5g+ on Struve in first fight that got cancel when the odd is +110.
I only lost $320 since the odd is -160 for Struve....Phew

[Jesus Christ]

Hope you don't lose too big on Struve since you like him so much.

I dodge the bullet when I have 5.5g+ on Struve in first fight that got cancel when the odd is +110.
I only lost $320 since the odd is -160 for Struve....Phew

Nah man this weekend is gonna be the first UFC event I've bet since 156 I believe...but yea that result was mad disappointing to see..that was a weird fight for Struve I don't think I've ever seen him gas that badly..gotta give it to Hunt dude hits like a penetrating mac truck.

Glad to hear it was a minor loss and not 5.5gs

[GigaOuts]

Nah man this weekend is gonna be the first UFC event I've bet since 156 I believe...but yea that result was mad disappointing to see..that was a weird fight for Struve I don't think I've ever seen him gas that badly..gotta give it to Hunt dude hits like a penetrating mac truck.

Glad to hear it was a minor loss and not 5.5gs

Not just the gas part is weird but trying to win by sub when he gas so badly. He could have easily won if he just ride the top position like GSP instead of give up position for the submission. Maybe he really need the submission of the night bonus or something.

Anyway hope you are back bigger and better, and find those nice underdog play again.

My lock picks(most confidence) this weekend is:
1.3g+ on Chris Camozzi at +105
1.2g+ on Johny Hendricks at -120 (not too confidence in the 3rd round, likely hedge down to $500)

[Sacrelicious]

Best of luck Gabe, I'm only with you on one bet, but I'm only fading you on one or two. Here is to a winning night for both of us

[gabe]

unless you have some inside information.. i dont think its wise to predict that a fighter will fight outside of his character
my assessment is based on evidence shown in all his previous outings

what are your basing your theory on? i think its dangerous make predictions on a fighter's mentality such as "i think he's more motivated than usual for this fight", or "i think he's gonna want to knock him out right away", or "i think he's going to try to sit back and not go for the knockout until later"

I didn't say thats his game plan, I said I predict that's how it will play out.

I don't think it was Hendricks game plan to KO Fitch and Kampmann right away, it just happened. He was expecting a 3 round war with both.

[pouyasophy]

Best of luck Gabe, I'm only with you on one bet, but I'm only fading you on one or two. Here is to a winning night for both of us

can you please post all your picks sacrelicious? I've built a pretty good bankroll the last few weeks and I'm planning to fade all your plays this weekend and make it a 4-5 figure night

[Vaughany]

Not just the gas part is weird but trying to win by sub when he gas so badly. He could have easily won if he just ride the top position like GSP instead of give up position for the submission. Maybe he really need the submission of the night bonus or something.

Anyway hope you are back bigger and better, and find those nice underdog play again.

My lock picks(most confidence) this weekend is:
1.3g+ on Chris Camozzi at +105
1.2g+ on Jony Hendricks at -120 (not too confidence in the 3rd round, likely hedge down to $500)

It's just how Struve is, he likes to be exciting and finish, and not just cruise to decisions

[gabe]

he's still one of the youngest fighters in the ufc... and crazy that his career might be over.

[GigaOuts]

Fighter like Tito and GSP take top position working GnP as long as they can without looking to finish make the most $$$ in mma. Dana want exciting fight, yet he paid most $$$ to boring fighters....oh the irony.

UFC should change their pay scale for all fighters.
30% to fight, 50% to win, 100% to finish!
So for new fighter: $8,000 to fight, $13,500 to win, $25,000 to finish!

This format UFC would be way more exciting, who entertain the fan deserve more $$$.

[gabe]

Adding

George Roop +115 small play

My main plays remain Dillashaw, Cruickshank, Mein, and Elkins

[gabe]

2-0 start, sons.