Georges St. Pierre is a lock....

Vaughany · 03-10-13, 04:22 PM

could you not of offered this incredible insight in the 158 thread brah? THor is not impressed wit your performance

Imsmarterthanu · 03-10-13, 05:32 PM

There are no locks in high level MMA

NunyaBidness · 03-10-13, 05:39 PM

Locks will not come in MMA until DDL switches over.

Hannibal · 03-10-13, 05:47 PM

I dont wager on oscars
how did you determine that DDL was a lock? Did you evaluate his performance based on your understanding of acting? looked at expert opinion? market value on in-trade? look at the lack of competition? probably a quite a few variables

I really have no idea. Was there one factor in particular, or one primary reason that took DDL to lock status?

Vaughany · 03-10-13, 06:02 PM

the closing -50000000000000000 line was a good indicator!

pouyasophy · 03-10-13, 06:06 PM

I will not say anything else...this fight is a

whether you like it or not. It is not likely that anyone knows what I am doing, but it is ok. The ends justify the means. If you do your research, you will understand what is happening here.

NunyaBidness · 03-10-13, 06:10 PM

I will say that award shows are unique in sports betting in that there is no variance in the choosing of the winner. A poor performance by Jennifer Lawrence (say, falling down on her walk to the stage) on the night of will not affect whether she wins or not.

Hannibal · 03-10-13, 06:30 PM

I can see how variance is not a factor. After all Oscars are based on a one time performance that has already taken place. It's not like a political election where events or actions leading up the vote will have any effect
I think i dont get it, cause it doesnt seem liek a very satisfying answer to me
isnt there something subjective in evaluating the performance of an actor?

Beelzebubzy · 03-10-13, 06:32 PM

Originally posted by pouyasophy

I will not say anything else...this fight is a

whether you like it or not. It is not likely that anyone knows what I am doing, but it is ok. The ends justify the means. If you do your research, you will understand what is happening here.

bet slip?

NunyaBidness · 03-10-13, 06:42 PM

Originally posted by Hannibal

I can see how variance is not a factor. After all Oscars are based on a one time performance that has already taken place. It's not like a political election where events or actions leading up the vote will have any effect
I think i dont get it, cause it doesnt seem liek a very satisfying answer to me
isnt there something subjective in evaluating the performance of an actor?

Sure, but you're making a mistake in assuming we are evaluating the performance of an actor. We're analyzing how a select group of people will vote to determine who the best actor is.

Furthermore, this is a largely homogenous group of old, white, wealthy, liberals who all live in the same city. Furthermore, they vote in preliminary elections (DGA, SAGs, etc) that give us a lot of information to run with.

If you're asking specifics on how I beat Oscars, I covered a lot of it in my thread.

Hannibal · 03-10-13, 07:03 PM

thanks, that explains a lot
Now if the judges vote one way in a preliminary election, and there is no variance, aren't they expected to vote exactly the same way when it comes to the final vote for the oscars?
If some of them change their vote, doesnt that imply there is some variance at play?

NunyaBidness · 03-10-13, 07:26 PM

Originally posted by Hannibal

thanks, that explains a lot
Now if the judges vote one way in a preliminary election, and there is no variance, aren't they expected to vote exactly the same way when it comes to the final vote for the oscars?
If some of them change their vote, doesnt that imply there is some variance at play?

What changes is there is a slightly different group of people voting in each group. For example, only actors can vote in the SAG awards, while all industry professionals vote at AMPAS.

Sacrelicious · 03-10-13, 09:21 PM

Originally posted by Hannibal

I can see how variance is not a factor. After all Oscars are based on a one time performance that has already taken place. It's not like a political election where events or actions leading up the vote will have any effect
I think i dont get it, cause it doesnt seem liek a very satisfying answer to me
isnt there something subjective in evaluating the performance of an actor?

I would imagine that being subjective in analyzing the performance of an actor would be precisely what you do NOT want to do,

In fact, I'd assume it would be easiest to bet on something like the oscars if you never even watched any of the movies or actors involved so that emotions and subjective opinion do not get involved.

Am I correct in this assumption, Nunya?

Hannibal · 03-10-13, 09:36 PM

what?
the fact is that you wager on who the judges think will win
the judges are people. their opinions are somewhat subjective, otherwise they would all vote the same thing. The very nature of judging is subjective, otherwise a winner would just be stated based on the given scoring criteria

NunyaBidness · 03-10-13, 09:53 PM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

I would imagine that being subjective in analyzing the performance of an actor would be precisely what you do NOT want to do,

In fact, I'd assume it would be easiest to bet on something like the oscars if you never even watched any of the movies or actors involved so that emotions and subjective opinion do not get involved.

Am I correct in this assumption, Nunya?

I disagree, it's hard to have a basis on what the lines should be without seeing the films. To your point, I think you need to avoid emotion when betting on any event, you need to be able to bet on GSP even if Diaz is your favorite fighter if you think the price on GSP is +EV. I HATE Jennifer Lawrence, but still saw value in the price, even though I wanted her to lose.

Thor4140 · 03-10-13, 09:56 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

could you not of offered this incredible insight in the 158 thread brah? THor is not impressed wit your performance

Sacrelicious · 03-10-13, 10:01 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

I disagree, it's hard to have a basis on what the lines should be without seeing the films. To your point, I think you need to avoid emotion when betting on any event, you need to be able to bet on GSP even if Diaz is your favorite fighter if you think the price on GSP is +EV. I HATE Jennifer Lawrence, but still saw value in the price, even though I wanted her to lose.

Fully understood, I think I may be oversimplifying things in my head.

Imsmarterthanu · 03-11-13, 12:25 AM

wait so this thread is now about the oscars ?

Vaughany · 03-11-13, 04:25 AM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

bet slip?

ha yeah, I assume he has put thousands on GSP seeing as he's an uber-lock

pouyasophy · 03-11-13, 05:46 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

ha yeah, I assume he has put thousands on GSP seeing as he's an uber-lock

No comment

For anyone that wants to know what's happening here, all you need to do is research my other

threads in NCAAB and NBA. I do not know of any other way I can be indirectly direct...

pouyasophy · 03-11-13, 05:49 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

could you not of offered this incredible insight in the 158 thread brah? THor is not impressed wit your performance

First of all, the pagan god of thursday has no affect on me. It is he who should be trying to impress Thoth. Second of all, this thread is not about insight. It's about YOU! If you see what I'm doing, you will follow.

Vaughany · 03-11-13, 07:00 AM

so its a either a cunning strategy to improve the Nick Diaz line, or a reverse jinx!

CDMKMP · 03-11-13, 02:21 PM

No one is a lock in MMA considering the deplorable state of judging and the fact GSP could easily get cut and have the fight stopped.

And that's all separate from getting hit with a lucky punch or something like that.

pouyasophy · 03-14-13, 07:22 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

so its a either a cunning strategy to improve the Nick Diaz line, or a reverse jinx!

No comment

Vaughany · 03-14-13, 07:25 AM

ha well Im sure thousands have been hammering the GSP line now because of this thread. Probably explains why Diaz has gone all way up to +425 on 5dimes now

pouyasophy · 03-14-13, 07:36 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

ha well Im sure thousands have been hammering the GSP line now because of this thread. Probably explains why Diaz has gone all way up to +425 on 5dimes now

I didn't make this thread so people would hammer GSP...I made this thread so no one would hammer the baddest man on the planet. The human middle finger, the only REAL fighter left in the UFC...not some punk athlete who does his best to keep the fight boring and "safe."
A bit off topic, but back in the last lifetime when I was in my trolling prime, I remember making a serious topic about basketball and you didn't respond to my thread but posted that pic of Frankie Edgar with that annoying smirk on his face...haha that was classic...you know how to push my buttons...shortly after i was banned and was never able to give you your props.

Beelzebubzy · 03-14-13, 07:39 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

ha well Im sure thousands have been hammering the GSP line now because of this thread. Probably explains why Diaz has gone all way up to +425 on 5dimes now

Poo said he was a lock. Therefore I said bubzy poo said this what should you do? Put a grand down and let poo speak the truth

Vaughany · 03-14-13, 07:42 AM

Originally posted by pouyasophy

I didn't make this thread so people would hammer GSP...I made this thread so no one would hammer the baddest man on the planet. The human middle finger, the only REAL fighter left in the UFC...not some punk athlete who does his best to keep the fight boring and "safe."
A bit off topic, but back in the last lifetime when I was in my trolling prime, I remember making a serious topic about basketball and you didn't respond to my thread but posted that pic of Frankie Edgar with that annoying smirk on his face...haha that was classic...you know how to push my buttons...shortly after i was banned and was never able to give you your props.

ha yeah, I meant to put Diaz not GSP!

hahah yeah I remember that. Good times!

pouyasophy · 03-14-13, 08:02 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

ha yeah, I meant to put Diaz not GSP!

hahah yeah I remember that. Good times!

It used to annoy me, but now I just think the pic is hilarious...still can't stand the guy or his fights...seriously, who wants to watch a fight that is 100% going to be a "close" fight where the guy moves around like a fly and doesn't throw any power shots?

caveira · 03-14-13, 08:22 PM

I am not so sure, Diaz is no joke man.

pouyasophy · 03-15-13, 12:47 AM

Originally posted by caveira

I am not so sure, Diaz is no joke man.

Vaughany · 03-15-13, 04:01 AM

lol

Yotone · 03-16-13, 11:44 AM

Diaz seemed like a joke when he got out classed by Condit.

pouyasophy · 03-16-13, 05:15 PM

Originally posted by Yotone

Diaz seemed like a joke when he got out classed by Condit.

You mean when Condit ran away and outpointed him in a close decision?

I'd hardly say anyone was outclassed or that Diaz looked like a joke.
Does Nick Diaz deserve a title shot right now? No. Did he deserve one a year or 2 ago? Definitely.