The highly cerebral bets of Sacrelicious

4 Team Parlay

2/23/13
11:59pm Props Fighting 1009
Rousey wins inside distance -801* vs Not Rousey inside distance

2/23/13
11:30pm Props Fighting 1116
Any other result -1125* vs Henderson wins in round 1

2/23/13
11:00pm Props Fighting 1237
Faber/Menjivar starts round 2 -507* vs Fight won't start round 2

2/23/13
10:00pm Props Fighting 1437 Lawler/Koscheck starts round 2 -345* vs Fight won't start round 2

Sacrelicious · 02-22-13, 05:33 PM

Originally posted by proposition joe

Then why the Machida play?

Eh, "live dog" is probably the wrong term. I really really don't see Hendo winning this fight, but I dont think its a terrible play to make.

Sacrelicious · 02-22-13, 05:35 PM

Adding 68$ on Perez/Hovhannesyan over 9.5 -170

JamesKim · 02-22-13, 09:16 PM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

Eh, "live dog" is probably the wrong term. I really really don't see Hendo winning this fight, but I dont think its a terrible play to make.

You don't think a backpeddling + blitzing combo southpaw is gonna have trouble against someone who aggressively moves forward with a beastly right hand with a chin made out of titanium?

Sacrelicious · 02-22-13, 09:18 PM

20 bucks on Owens, -115

Sacrelicious · 02-22-13, 10:08 PM

28 on Eagans -140

Sacrelicious · 02-22-13, 10:45 PM

Oops, forgot to post ths earlier. 64 on Perez/Hovhanesyan over 9.5 -170

Educ8d Degener8 · 02-22-13, 11:39 PM

Originally posted by MD

If he puts 50% of his bankroll on Mo (we'll assume he starts off with $6000, based on what he said), that leaves him with $3000.
$600 on the Mo-Newton under would return a profit of 300, leaving him with a bankroll of $3300. Going all-in on Sham at +200 would result in a return of $6600, for a final bankroll of $9600, which is a 60% increase.

No more late night math from me... (a little disappointed Nunya didn't roast me for that one)

Sacrelicious · 02-23-13, 01:19 AM

60$ Holt +250 LOSS
28$ on Eagans -140 LOSS
20$ on Owens, -115 WIN
68$ on Perez/Hovhannesyan over 9.5 -170 WIN
50$ on Pearl Gonzales +100 WIN

Up about 30 bucks for the night, talk about big ballin. :P

NunyaBidness · 02-23-13, 01:26 AM

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

No more late night math from me... (a little disappointed Nunya didn't roast me for that one)

Too busy trying to figure out who to go all in on, if my 50% bet on DDL loses.

Sacrelicious · 02-23-13, 01:34 AM

Adding:

125$ Villefort -125
20$ Villefort by Sub +385

50$ Manly +140

Sacrelicious · 02-23-13, 05:34 AM

50$ on Peter Turkson is the next pope +150

MD · 02-23-13, 08:00 AM

Why would anyone bet Villefort except for a weigh-in fade? I don't understand. I'm starting to think no one has seen him fight, he's terrible.

Sacrelicious · 02-23-13, 09:03 AM

I'm counting on either a sub or scoring the first two rounds with ground control. I think he out wrestles here, but the cardio is certainly an inssue.

PunisherIND · 02-23-13, 10:18 AM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

50$ on Peter Turkson is the next pope +150

Oof. Much better odds available.

NunyaBidness · 02-23-13, 10:22 AM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

50$ on Peter Turkson is the next pope +150

Time to step up your prop game homes. +350 is available. (And still not worth it IMO)

PunisherIND · 02-23-13, 10:47 AM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Time to step up your prop game homes. +350 is available. (And still not worth it IMO)

sacko, you should do a little research. check the lines at some other books even if you dont have an account. check intrade. at least you will have a better idea of the market. 5dimes literally has the worst line on turkson.

Sacrelicious · 02-23-13, 10:57 AM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

sacko, you should do a little research. check the lines at some other books even if you dont have an account. check intrade. at least you will have a better idea of the market. 5dimes literally has the worst line on turkson.

I'll check it out, I need to start opening at several more books, I can't even imagine what its doing to my bottom line.

NunyaBidness · 02-23-13, 11:01 AM

I mean, hell, you can get the entire continent of Africa at +225, that's like 1,000,000,000 times better.

GigaOuts · 02-23-13, 11:16 AM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Prop bet?

I post ten tickets, nine real, one fake. You get the best minds at 4 to sniff it out. How much you want to bet?

Brilliant minds over at 2+2.

Evidence here:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/67...blonde-617645/

No bet. I don't think you will agree with my term and I have no time since ufc 157 is today. I am not sure how people cap fights but I spend the whole week to cap Bellator/UFC and whole fight day line shopping (this is my full time job....lol)

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

You do realize that BFO misses lots of line movements, and lines don't move on every single bet, right? I thought you were kidding in your prior post where you posted pictures.

Do you really think there were only like 10 bets on Mo?

And LOL at everyone who says "oh my god, I moved the line at 5d with my $100 bet, I'm a linemover"

Yes BFO misses lots of lines movement, they even miss opening line. BFO indicate Shamwow open at -105 but 5Dimes actual open him at +160. We are not talking about poster claiming $50, $100 bet that BFO might not catch, we are talking about 3g! if BFO can not catch a 3g bet than it won't catch any bet at all but that is not the case.

If you look at my 2g bet, I bet on Jan 26, 2013 (day of the fight) at 4:18 pm. That means my bet is close to the end of the graph at +190 which is the same as the opening line. Do you see where the graph dip at +190 end of the graph? A 3g bet will certainly move line, it can be cross reference by many things, I only list 3.

I have no idea why you think I think there is only 10 bet on Mo? Moving on.

Poster who claim to move line with $100 bet at 5Dimes definitely believable. I don't need proof especially back than when lines open - max base bet is $100. Why wouldn't you believe that? So you believe a 3g bet more than poster claiming he move 5Dimes line with a $100 bet when the lines open?

NunyaBidness · 02-23-13, 11:27 AM

When you get 4 guys pushing a car out of a snow bank, every one of them thinks they did all the work.

omalley21 · 02-23-13, 11:36 AM

I took Turkson +300. I like the play. He's talking about one world government and one world currency.

NunyaBidness · 02-23-13, 11:56 AM

Originally posted by omalley21

I took Turkson +300. I like the play. He's talking about one world government and one world currency.

Hope it works out for you.

I personally think there's too many things going on behind closed doors to really get a handle on a true line. Maybe if intrade had some volume, you could determine it better. Right now they're saying fair line is +/-400

Sacrelicious · 02-23-13, 01:43 PM

WEEKLY TARDLAY:

164859863-1	2/23/13 6:18am	$60.00	$47.20	Pending	7 Team Parlay
				Pending	2/23/13 4:00pm Props Fighting 104 Fight won't go distance -2000* vs Thompson/Price goes distance
				Pending	2/23/13 4:00pm Props Fighting 324 Field wins Prizefighter Heavyweights III -1050* vs Martin Rogan wins Prizefighter
				Pending	2/23/13 11:59pm Props Fighting 1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance -1750* vs Carmouche/Rousey goes 5 round distance
				Pending	2/23/13 11:30pm Props Fighting 1122 Any other result -1125* vs Machida wins in round 1
				Pending	2/23/13 11:00pm Props Fighting 1216 Any other result -900* vs Faber wins in round 1
				Pending	2/23/13 10:00pm Props Fighting 1422 Any other result -675* vs Koscheck wins in round 1
				Pending	2/23/13 9:30pm Props Fighting 1508 Not Johnson by 3 round decision -1700* vs Johnson wins by 3 round decision

GigaOuts · 02-23-13, 04:31 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

When you get 4 guys pushing a car out of a snow bank, every one of them thinks they did all the work.

Yes very true statement.

So your point is 4 guys is equal as $10, $100, $500, $2000 bet. They have the same weight, a $10 bet move line as much as 2g bet? Ok you wins.

NunyaBidness · 02-23-13, 04:38 PM

Yes, clearly that was my point.

BTW,

Sacrelicious · 02-23-13, 05:26 PM

164977407

2/23/13
5:23pm

Wager Won

164735072-2

$20.00

$170.00

Win

2/23/13 4:00pm
Boxing Fighting 101
Tony Thompson +850* vs David Price

Sacrelicious · 02-23-13, 05:28 PM

164977428

2/23/13
5:23pm

Wager Won

164776975-1

$20.00

$200.00

Win

2/23/13 4:00pm
Boxing Fighting 101
Tony Thompson +1000* vs David Price

Sacrelicious · 02-23-13, 05:29 PM

Nights off to a good start.

Sacrelicious · 02-23-13, 05:37 PM

Sacrelicious · 02-23-13, 05:38 PM

Pending	7 Team Parlay
		Win	2/23/13 4:00pm Props Fighting 104 Fight won't go distance -2000* vs Thompson/Price goes distance
		Win	2/23/13 4:00pm Props Fighting 324 Field wins Prizefighter Heavyweights III -1050* vs Martin Rogan wins Prizefighter
		Pending	2/23/13 11:59pm Props Fighting 1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance -1750* vs Carmouche/Rousey goes 5 round distance
		Pending	2/23/13 11:30pm Props Fighting 1122 Any other result -1125* vs Machida wins in round 1
		Pending	2/23/13 11:00pm Props Fighting 1216 Any other result -900* vs Faber wins in round 1
		Pending	2/23/13 10:00pm Props Fighting 1422 Any other result -675* vs Koscheck wins in round 1
		Pending	2/23/13 9:30pm Props Fighting 1508 Not Johnson by 3 round decision -1700* vs Johnson wins by 3 round decision

Catchn_Picks · 02-23-13, 05:41 PM

gotta say sac...I have never seen a 7 team par that did not pay even money at least...wow...lol

I actually has a great shot at winning. Johnson is a gasser if he doesn't win early. Machida rarely comes out quickly as he touches gloves with the pitter-patter stuff until he measures the opponent. gl

Sacrelicious · 02-23-13, 05:47 PM

Thanks man, good luck to you as well.

Sacrelicious · 02-23-13, 05:54 PM

Another 20 bucks on Villefort by sub, +385, for 60 total. Its my fringe bet of the card. My threads become a mess, I'll try my best to sort through all this garbage at the end of the night.

Sacrelicious · 02-23-13, 08:41 PM

Reduced line on Schaub is just too tempting. Throwing down another 80.

hougigo · 02-23-13, 10:10 PM

Good hit on the Thompson win man, my under got blow to smithereens, lol