Quick check to see if your play is +EV

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  • v1y
    SBR MVP
    • 05-02-11
    • 1138

    #1
    Quick check to see if your play is +EV
    Step 1: Are you betting a +money Russian in Bellator?
    Step 2: Your bet is +EV

    Shlemenko at around +400 against Hess and Baker
    Shamhalaev at +170 against Martinez at +200 against Richman
    Khasbulaev at +200 against Guerrero
    Volkov opened +money against Rogers
    Aliev opened at like +200 against Parlo.
    Koreshkov closed +130 against Good

    some dogs have lost too obviously... tsarev, machaev, stepanyan, but you're massively ahead if you've bet every russian dog.
  • Beelzebubzy
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 06-06-11
    • 6995

    #2
    Or
    Or did your bet get his hand raised after the fight? If so your bet is +ev cause winnerzzzzz are +ev
    Comment
    • sideloaded
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 08-21-10
      • 7561

      #3
      i always go with hawg size
      Comment
      • omalley21
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 11-08-10
        • 908

        #4
        Kicking myself for not betting aliev +200.
        Comment
        • Sacrelicious
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 11-29-12
          • 5984

          #5
          I have noticed that Russians seem to be the logical bet in Bellator, regardless of who they are fighting. Hog size is also a huge factor though.
          Comment
          • Grabaka
            SBR MVP
            • 02-19-11
            • 3216

            #6
            Problem with the Russians is that hog size analysis doesnt really work. Cold has them all shrink but as soon as they come to America or any other place with semi hot weather the hog releases his full potential, so you never really know.
            Comment
            • Sacrelicious
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 11-29-12
              • 5984

              #7
              Originally posted by Grabaka
              Problem with the Russians is that hog size analysis doesnt really work. Cold has them all shrink but as soon as they come to America or any other place with semi hot weather the hog releases his full potential, so you never really know.
              There are some valuable nuggets of wisdom in these words that we would all benefit from deeply reflecting upon.
              Comment
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