Win here, win there, win win everywhere

Bagalut · 02-03-13, 09:52 AM

Great Night !

Woodleys performance was really impressive.
Aldo gassed in the later rounds as expected but won the deserved decision.

WINNING!

YTD + 311 €

Bagalut · 02-12-13, 04:08 PM

289361015-1 1	1:01pm 12-Feb-13	2:15pm 16-Feb-13	Gemischte Kampfsportarten Money Line	Cub Swanson vs Dustin Poirier für Spiel.	1.840	373.00	313.45	Offen
289361015-2 2	1:01pm 12-Feb-13	11:00am 16-Feb-13	Gemischte Kampfsportarten Money Line	Danny Castillo vs Paul Sass für Spiel.	1.917	186.00	170.64	Offen
						559.00

SWANSON
Just really impressed with Swansons performance in his last fights. Think he got the clear advantage standing and he probably will be the first to knock Poirier out. So maxbet at pinnalce is 373€ right now...might add more later.

SASS
He will submit Castillo. Very confident with this. Castillo´s striking is nothing worth talking about. Maybe we will even see Sass taken the better of the striking exchanges. He might be able to go wrestle mode and take Sass down. But Sass will submit him with a triangle choke in round 1. So maxbet 186€ on pinnacle atm, might add more later aswell.

Bagalut · 02-13-13, 04:13 PM

289361015-1 1	1:01pm 12-Feb-13	2:15pm 16-Feb-13	Gemischte Kampfsportarten Money Line	Cub Swanson vs Dustin Poirier für Spiel.	1.840	373.00	313.45	Offen
289361015-2 2	1:01pm 12-Feb-13	11:00am 16-Feb-13	Gemischte Kampfsportarten Money Line	Danny Castillo vs Paul Sass für Spiel.	1.917	186.00	170.64	Offen
289506781-1 3	1:11pm 13-Feb-13	1:45pm 16-Feb-13	Gemischte Kampfsportarten Money Line	Cyrille Diabate vs Jimi Manuwa für Spiel.	3.100	183.47	385.29	Offen
						742.47

Added a play on Diabate.
See this fight going the distance and Manuwa will gas like a bitch in the 2nd round. Only fast knockout of manuwa screws me up.

GigaOuts · 02-13-13, 05:23 PM

I like to be your friend...lol. I have the same picks.
GL to us.

Oh yeah I also have Jose Aldo and Tyrone Woodley too last card.

fitguy67 · 02-13-13, 06:46 PM

gonna join u guyz on Sass, but Swanson-Poirier seems like a potential-FON...and those are as hard to call as they are easy to enjoy!

Bagalut · 02-14-13, 02:19 AM

We ride together, we die together

fitguy67 · 02-15-13, 02:14 AM

Originally posted by Bagalut

We ride together, we die together

how 'bout "We get rich together...or we bitch together"...gl Diabate & Sass & Swansson

Bagalut · 02-15-13, 07:43 AM

Ye let's just get rich together

fitguy67 · 02-16-13, 02:35 AM

In addition to Diabate +203 and Sass =105 already placed...

I just started a "roll my own" 3-fight Parlay with Gomes-220

If it hits, I'll do the 2nd leg= Etim -315

if still alive, 3rd leg=Nelson -270

odds may change on these later legs a bit, but the whole 3-bet parlay will be about +160

These are all 5dimes special "reduced" ML prices (quite similar to pinny) now...but if i tried to lock in the whole parlay, I'd get the standard prices (more like b365)...each one a few% worse than if i went straight up, one after another...so for ufc (assuming prices don't change--a big assumption) i get a much better price for rolling my own parlay...

BOL

so my 3rd play is Gomes+Etim+Nelson, parlay, about +160...that's the idea anyhow...by doing it this way, odds may move (for or against me)...but i also maintain flexibility to react to such things and apply it to the rest of the progression of bets in the progression...

Let's cash tomoro!

KushMoney · 02-16-13, 01:09 PM

Originally posted by Bagalut

289361015-1 1	1:01pm 12-Feb-13	2:15pm 16-Feb-13	Gemischte Kampfsportarten Money Line	Cub Swanson vs Dustin Poirier für Spiel.	1.840	373.00	313.45	Offen
289361015-2 2	1:01pm 12-Feb-13	11:00am 16-Feb-13	Gemischte Kampfsportarten Money Line	Danny Castillo vs Paul Sass für Spiel.	1.917	186.00	170.64	Offen
289506781-1 3	1:11pm 13-Feb-13	1:45pm 16-Feb-13	Gemischte Kampfsportarten Money Line	Cyrille Diabate vs Jimi Manuwa für Spiel.	3.100	183.47	385.29	Offen
						742.47

Added a play on Diabate.
See this fight going the distance and Manuwa will gas like a bitch in the 2nd round. Only fast knockout of manuwa screws me up.

Dang I see Manuwa using takedowns/dragging the fight out while holding down Diabete to avoid gassing out, then Diabete going for it in the 3rd Round!

Bagalut · 02-16-13, 06:32 PM

Meh.... -56 € tonight...luckily Swanson was my biggest play...I should have sticked to that fight since it was the one I was most confident in.

What I learned tonight:

Swanson looked great tonight. Maybe a bit arrogant here and there...If he faces Siver next, I´ll bet half my bankroll on him.

from SASS: dont bet on one trick pony´s...I should have learned this already with Palhares but obv. I had to do this mistake again...NEVER doing it again though... I hope

from DIABATE: dont place bets on old and gay frenchman...

YTD: + 255 €

fitguy67 · 02-17-13, 02:07 PM

Originally posted by Bagalut

Meh.... -56 € tonight...luckily Swanson was my biggest play...I should have sticked to that fight since it was the one I was most confident in.

What I learned tonight:

Swanson looked great tonight. Maybe a bit arrogant here and there...If he faces Siver next, I´ll bet half my bankroll on him.

from SASS: dont bet on one trick pony´s...I should have learned this already with Palhares but obv. I had to do this mistake again...NEVER doing it again though... I hope

from DIABATE: dont place bets on old and gay frenchman...

YTD: + 255 €

good after-event summary, Bag...from now on, once i think I've identified some value in a live dog...i'll have to remember to apply your OGF (Old, Gay, Fat) disqualifcation clause...

1 out of the 3=reconsider,
2 out of the 3 =stay out or even hedge-out if necessary
3 out of the 3 (as Diabate on Saturday)=pound the favored opponent instead

fitguy67 · 02-17-13, 02:10 PM

more seriously...your "one trick pony" clause is useful...i can't see why people keep betting on Rampage...especially after Bader...his last fight against Texeira, even as a +3xx dog he was over-valued

applies also to the upcoming Hendo (one-trick reliance for last several years now) vs Machida...

Bagalut · 02-23-13, 02:02 PM

291176273-1 1	10:57am 23-Feb-13	8:45pm 23-Feb-13	Gemischte Kampfsportarten Money Line	Dan Henderson vs Lyoto Machida für Spiel.	3.100	50.00	105.00	Offen
291176273-2 2	10:57am 23-Feb-13	6:45pm 23-Feb-13	Gemischte Kampfsportarten Money Line	Brendan Schaub vs Lavar Johnson für Spiel.	2.210	100.00	121.00	Offen
						150.00

No big bets for me...don´t really like to bet on this card.
Seeing value in Hendo and predict him to knock Machida out in the 2nd round.
Lavar might be fast enough to touch Schaubs chin before he gets taken down...If he touches Schaub once its all over.

Ticket	Angenommen	Ereignis Datum	Art	Beschreibung		Sie riskieren	Siegwette	Wager Status
287713972-1 1	8:11am 2-Feb-13	9:15pm 2-Feb-13	Gemischte Kampfsportarten Money Line	Frank Edgar vs Jose Aldo für Spiel.	1.556	200.00	111.11	Offen
287714565-1 2	8:12am 2-Feb-13	6:15pm 2-Feb-13	Gemischte Kampfsportarten Money Line	Jay Hieron vs Tyron Woodley für Spiel.	1.870	230.00	200.00	Offen
						430.00