Went 12-3 for yesterdays wagers.
Let's get it goin' for todays card...
TAKE ME TO THE CASH MACHINE!!!!!!!!!!!
Jared Papazian +150 is the play, boys and gentlemen!!!!!! Not a biased play. Dude is a beast, especially at 125. He is the biggest 125er in the division, Ian McCall included. Don't let the Dustin Pague fight fool you. He would have completely tooled Pague. He would have gotten up from the ground, too, if not for that awful ref that interfered and wouldn't let him use the cage to get to his feet. Besides that fight, when have you EVER seen a ref tell a fighter he can't use his feet on the cage? Anyway, Papazian should be a -220 fav going into this, so I'll happily snatch him up at +150. Only reason he's a dog is 'cos of the flukey Pague loss. Don't be fooled, kids. Play the Papa.
I expect James Head +180 to earn a decision here, if not earn a late stoppage. He's got the size advantage (which is hard to have against Pyle,) the stand-up advantage, and most importantly the cardio advantage. You can't trust wagering on a guy like Pyle, but on a guy like Head who is currently on a hot streak and isn't a quitter like Pyle is and at such a dog price, you can safely give it a go. This fight is a lot closer to a coin-flip, with the edge going to Head because A) Pyle has shitty cardio and B) he often doesn't show up. Locked him up already, as I'm afraid he'll be +130 by fight time.
Gonna have a small play on Marcos Vinicius +200; I like his chances of scoring a KO or submission at that price. This is another fight closer to a coin-flip, but unlike Mike Pyle, Johnny Bedford is always a game opponent, so this can only be a small play for me. Waiting til last minute to get the best possible line, I could see him ending up at +235.
Just so much value on this card! I'm all over Jonathan Brookins +230!! I'll wait to see if it hits +250 before locking it in... I don't believe Poirier has the same TDD Erik Koch has, so if Brookins applies a similar grinding game plan, he shouldn't have problem walking away with the decision. Poirier was exposed in his last fight, and we all know who Brookins is and what he's capable of. He really needs a win here and I am banking on him having a solid gameplan to earn him that win. I will also be on the Over in this fight. I think his line move closer to +250, so I'll wait before making my move.
Shane Del Rosario -220 and Shane Del Rosario ITD (no line yet) are the plays for me. Shane will impose his size on Barry, take him down, and find a way to get a submission. Barry might escape from one or two, but will eventually slip into a tap. This loss should make him consider a move to 205.
I am taking Colton Smith +220 over "my boy Ricci"-- I believe Smith is the more powerful of the two. I see him controlling Ricci for at least the majority of two rounds; enough to earn him a decision. His gameplan is going to be to get in there, take Ricci down, and impose his will. I think he will be able to do just that. Hard to say that since it's against an up and coming Tri-Star Star (lol) but it's how I see this fight playing out. Note: Colton Smith was my least favorite cast member on the show 'cos of his cheapshot takedown in the season premiere. He's grown on me a bit, though. I don't think either of these guys will finish each other, even though a lot of people think Ricci will KO Smith, so I'm going to have a play on the Over, as well.
I will have a small play on Rustam Khabilov -230. I capped him at -170, so I shouldn't take him at -230, but my gut just tells me he will take a decision here. I will be on the Over as well, likely for a large wager. If he loses, which he probably won't, the over should more than save me.
I will also be wagering on TJ Waldbuger -120 because I see this fight hitting the mat sooner or later and I believe our boy Teej will manage to lock somethin' up. The Jersey Devil's Welterweight debut is unfortunately (for him) going to result in a tap. Though, he will probably look impressive until it does so.
My last play will be on Matt Mitrione +220. I think he will do just enough to beat Roy in a 5 round decision, so I will also be on the Over in this fight. It will probably be set at 1.5, so should be an easy hit. I expect both their chins to hold up for at least 2 rounds, if not all 5.
Let's get it goin' for todays card...
TAKE ME TO THE CASH MACHINE!!!!!!!!!!!
Jared Papazian +150 is the play, boys and gentlemen!!!!!! Not a biased play. Dude is a beast, especially at 125. He is the biggest 125er in the division, Ian McCall included. Don't let the Dustin Pague fight fool you. He would have completely tooled Pague. He would have gotten up from the ground, too, if not for that awful ref that interfered and wouldn't let him use the cage to get to his feet. Besides that fight, when have you EVER seen a ref tell a fighter he can't use his feet on the cage? Anyway, Papazian should be a -220 fav going into this, so I'll happily snatch him up at +150. Only reason he's a dog is 'cos of the flukey Pague loss. Don't be fooled, kids. Play the Papa.
I expect James Head +180 to earn a decision here, if not earn a late stoppage. He's got the size advantage (which is hard to have against Pyle,) the stand-up advantage, and most importantly the cardio advantage. You can't trust wagering on a guy like Pyle, but on a guy like Head who is currently on a hot streak and isn't a quitter like Pyle is and at such a dog price, you can safely give it a go. This fight is a lot closer to a coin-flip, with the edge going to Head because A) Pyle has shitty cardio and B) he often doesn't show up. Locked him up already, as I'm afraid he'll be +130 by fight time.
Gonna have a small play on Marcos Vinicius +200; I like his chances of scoring a KO or submission at that price. This is another fight closer to a coin-flip, but unlike Mike Pyle, Johnny Bedford is always a game opponent, so this can only be a small play for me. Waiting til last minute to get the best possible line, I could see him ending up at +235.
Just so much value on this card! I'm all over Jonathan Brookins +230!! I'll wait to see if it hits +250 before locking it in... I don't believe Poirier has the same TDD Erik Koch has, so if Brookins applies a similar grinding game plan, he shouldn't have problem walking away with the decision. Poirier was exposed in his last fight, and we all know who Brookins is and what he's capable of. He really needs a win here and I am banking on him having a solid gameplan to earn him that win. I will also be on the Over in this fight. I think his line move closer to +250, so I'll wait before making my move.
Shane Del Rosario -220 and Shane Del Rosario ITD (no line yet) are the plays for me. Shane will impose his size on Barry, take him down, and find a way to get a submission. Barry might escape from one or two, but will eventually slip into a tap. This loss should make him consider a move to 205.
I am taking Colton Smith +220 over "my boy Ricci"-- I believe Smith is the more powerful of the two. I see him controlling Ricci for at least the majority of two rounds; enough to earn him a decision. His gameplan is going to be to get in there, take Ricci down, and impose his will. I think he will be able to do just that. Hard to say that since it's against an up and coming Tri-Star Star (lol) but it's how I see this fight playing out. Note: Colton Smith was my least favorite cast member on the show 'cos of his cheapshot takedown in the season premiere. He's grown on me a bit, though. I don't think either of these guys will finish each other, even though a lot of people think Ricci will KO Smith, so I'm going to have a play on the Over, as well.
I will have a small play on Rustam Khabilov -230. I capped him at -170, so I shouldn't take him at -230, but my gut just tells me he will take a decision here. I will be on the Over as well, likely for a large wager. If he loses, which he probably won't, the over should more than save me.
I will also be wagering on TJ Waldbuger -120 because I see this fight hitting the mat sooner or later and I believe our boy Teej will manage to lock somethin' up. The Jersey Devil's Welterweight debut is unfortunately (for him) going to result in a tap. Though, he will probably look impressive until it does so.
My last play will be on Matt Mitrione +220. I think he will do just enough to beat Roy in a 5 round decision, so I will also be on the Over in this fight. It will probably be set at 1.5, so should be an easy hit. I expect both their chins to hold up for at least 2 rounds, if not all 5.
