Christ Like Boxing, MMA & UFC Betting

[gabe]

LOL

I really have no respect for you as far as sports betting and handicapping goes. The fact that you think you would have to use actual data to predict a half-time score only goes to show how little you really know and how poorly I'm sure you do. I still can't believe you thought Kyle Kingsbury stood a chance against Jimi Manuwa lol

Note: You have never posted any plays (aside from politics) that people could tail and profit. Me, I've posted more than you can keep track of.

[gabe]

Nun, meet me at a poker table in vegas. i wanna take u for all you've got.

[Beelzebubzy]

Interesting play jc, best of luck

[Sacrelicious]

YTD 2-1 +$1,162.50

Gonna play this now and prolly again closer to Saturday.

I'm playing Diaz +3.5 points on the cards...I think we all can say that Bendo prolly isn't gonna finish Diaz...I think if this goes to the cards it's cause it's a closely fought affair with both guys having their moments...at this time I think Bendo is gonna win a controversial decision that most see going Diaz way....so as of now I'm taking the points....in a few days I may decide I also want a bet on Diaz straight...but we shall see.

Hey question about a prop like this. Lets assume Diaz does score 4 rounds and then hendo makes a freak finish, does it still cash? I'm assuming not, but just wondering.

[Mercersux]

Hey question about a prop like this. Lets assume Diaz does score 4 rounds and then hendo makes a freak finish, does it still cash? I'm assuming not, but just wondering.

Nope. All the handicap plays I've ever seen cash if your guys scores a ko/tko or sub before the scorecards.

[Sacrelicious]

I think I'm either misunderstanding your answer or you my question.. I'm saying if DIAZ, hypothetically, scores a four point lead over the first round, thus fufilling the circumstances of the wager. Then Henderson knocks him out, winning the fight, but giving, in terms of the cards and the judges total a plus 4 lead, betting the wager, would this still be a win?

Which also raises the other point, if you handicap your pick to win x amount of points in a decision and then they knock out thier opponent prior to doing so, does that also count as a win on your part?

[Sacrelicious]

I mean I suppose theres always fine print on these things, I'm just asking out of curiosity.

[DirtyX]

??

MLB is arguably the lowest variance sport to bet, whilst MMA is arguably the highest.

I disagree. In Baseball, you have nine players on the field, each of whom have the ability to make an error and change the outcome of the game. In MMA you have two people who can really control what the outcome of the fight may be... Well, minus the ref and the judges. Has there been some bad judging? sure.. But most of the time, they get it correct. I have lost money on some stoppages due to cuts and DQ's also. Other than that I don't know how you can say MLB has the lowest variance and MMA the highest...?

In baseball, you have to worry about weather, your bullpen, offense, defense, who is injured and who isn't, etc.. The whole team needs to align and work together correctly in order to work. Kinda like a well oiled automobile. If anyone of those listed above has a bad night, the outcome of the game becomes completely different. I personally feel more confident in MMA myself. I understand there is random shit in MMA also that happens all the time. But in some fights, if I feel a fighter will follow through on a smart game plan, and execute what I think he needs to win, it's money. These fights do not come up very often, but to give you a few examples:

Larkin vs Lawler - Strikeforce

Barao vs Faber - UFC

Alistar vs Lesnar - UFC

Jones vs Shogun - UFC

Anyways, I think those fights were gifts for the odds offered at the time.

[Mercersux]

I think I'm either misunderstanding your answer or you my question.. I'm saying if DIAZ, hypothetically, scores a four point lead over the first round, thus fufilling the circumstances of the wager. Then Henderson knocks him out, winning the fight, but giving, in terms of the cards and the judges total a plus 4 lead, betting the wager, would this still be a win?

Which also raises the other point, if you handicap your pick to win x amount of points in a decision and then they knock out thier opponent prior to doing so, does that also count as a win on your part?

A finish for either fighter in a hadicap bet nullifies whatever there is on the score card. It's an automatic win for whichever fighter scores the finish. Only time the handicap comes into play is when there's an actual decision @ the end of 3 or 5 rnd fights.

[Sacrelicious]

Gotcha! Thanks man.

[Vaughany]

YTD 2-1 +$1,162.50

Gonna play this now and prolly again closer to Saturday.

I'm playing Diaz +3.5 points on the cards...I think we all can say that Bendo prolly isn't gonna finish Diaz...I think if this goes to the cards it's cause it's a closely fought affair with both guys having their moments...at this time I think Bendo is gonna win a controversial decision that most see going Diaz way....so as of now I'm taking the points....in a few days I may decide I also want a bet on Diaz straight...but we shall see.

This could well be the best bet to make, interested in adding this to fight goes the distance play. Really dont see Henderson finishing Diaz

[gabe]

I don't see either fighter finishing one another, I hope the over 4.5 line isn't -300

[gabe]

goes to decision is -180, seems like a steal

[bjpenn85]

This bet means that diaz needs to win 3 rounds or more on the judges score cards?

[Vaughany]

I don't see either fighter finishing one another, I hope the over 4.5 line isn't -300

-180 on sportbet/5dimes

[Vaughany]

goes to decision is -180, seems like a steal

yeeah seems too eassy tho!

[bogbat]

Its extremely hard picturing Nate being stopped, but could Nate stop Bendo somehow? Bendo appears almost un-submittable, and I am having trouble recalling when he was knocked down other than when he was on the butt end of the famous showtime kick.

[Vaughany]

Its extremely hard picturing Nate being stopped, but could Nate stop Bendo somehow? Bendo appears almost un-submittable, and I am having trouble recalling when he was knocked down other than when he was on the butt end of the famous showtime kick.

Got dropped by Edgar and Jim MIller. Shane Roller dropped him early in their fight as well

[bogbat]

Got dropped by Edgar and Jim MIller. Shane Roller dropped him early in their fight as well

lol just remembered Guida dropped him too and attempted a follow up guillotine.

[bogbat]

^^ that's probably the only way it could happen, a knock down submission chain.

[Vaughany]

Henderson tends to get dropped then likes to make out like he slipped or something... Done it a couple of times, like against Edgar he grabbed his foot as if he slipped! Crafty devil

[bjpenn85]

i think frankie edgar dropped him in their first fight. The angle was very awkward and i remember the preview in the rematch had a clip of that incident as well.

[bjpenn85]

didnt see this obviously.

[PunisherIND]

This bet means that diaz needs to win 3 rounds or more on the judges score cards?

bj, the points handicap, in this case diaz +3.5, means the bet wins in the following situations:

1) diaz wins inside distance
2) diaz wins by decision
3) diaz loses by decision, by 3 total rounds or less when you combine all 3 judges scorecards (e.g., if he loses 48-47, 48-47, 48-47 the bet still wins)

[MD]

I disagree. In Baseball, you have nine players on the field, each of whom have the ability to make an error and change the outcome of the game. In MMA you have two people who can really control what the outcome of the fight may be... Well, minus the ref and the judges. Has there been some bad judging? sure.. But most of the time, they get it correct. I have lost money on some stoppages due to cuts and DQ's also. Other than that I don't know how you can say MLB has the lowest variance and MMA the highest...?

In baseball, you have to worry about weather, your bullpen, offense, defense, who is injured and who isn't, etc.. The whole team needs to align and work together correctly in order to work. Kinda like a well oiled automobile. If anyone of those listed above has a bad night, the outcome of the game becomes completely different. I personally feel more confident in MMA myself. I understand there is random shit in MMA also that happens all the time. But in some fights, if I feel a fighter will follow through on a smart game plan, and execute what I think he needs to win, it's money. These fights do not come up very often, but to give you a few examples:

Larkin vs Lawler - Strikeforce

Barao vs Faber - UFC

Alistar vs Lesnar - UFC

Jones vs Shogun - UFC

Anyways, I think those fights were gifts for the odds offered at the time.

Your logic is faulty. I think you're also gravely misunderstanding the concept of variance. How can you say that baseball is higher variance because nine people have the ability to make an error and change the course of the game, versus MMA, which only has one? If there are nine players, each with their own capacity to perform mistakes, and to have good/bad days, then a mistake or a bad day from one doesn't have as large an impact on the game as a mistake or a bad day from an MMA fighter. There are obviously exceptions; sometimes all nine players can play near-perfectly in a very close, competitive game, and one mistake can lose the game for either team, but the truth is, the likelihood that one mistake from one player cost the entire team the game is extremely low. You see to be assuming that if a game is tied 4-4 in the final inning and one player makes a mistake, giving up a run, then that player cost the team the game. The reality is, every mistake that every player made collectively cost the team the game, in addition to their inferiority to the other team. If the losing team hadn't given up that run in the fourth, they wouldn't have lost, either. Let's assume for the following example that your goal is to invest your money with the least variance possible: if I wagered you $900 on the results of a fair coin flip, and I gave you the opportunity to flip the coin nine times and distribute the money pool in $200 increments based on the results, you would rather flip the coin just once?

There's a reason that baseball is considered the lowest-variance sport, and it's because it's considered a true statistician's sport. Numbers and figures take priority over instinct, and the biggest winners are incredibly studious, and vigilant in their strategies.

[PunisherIND]

So you're saying that "variance" does not mean "variables"?

Next your going to tell me robbie lawler isnt tom lawlors older brother.

[Vaughany]

lol

[DirtyX]

Your logic is faulty. I think you're also gravely misunderstanding the concept of variance. How can you say that baseball is higher variance because nine people have the ability to make an error and change the course of the game, versus MMA, which only has one? If there are nine players, each with their own capacity to perform mistakes, and to have good/bad days, then a mistake or a bad day from one doesn't have as large an impact on the game as a mistake or a bad day from an MMA fighter. There are obviously exceptions; sometimes all nine players can play near-perfectly in a very close, competitive game, and one mistake can lose the game for either team, but the truth is, the likelihood that one mistake from one player cost the entire team the game is extremely low. You see to be assuming that if a game is tied 4-4 in the final inning and one player makes a mistake, giving up a run, then that player cost the team the game. The reality is, every mistake that every player made collectively cost the team the game, in addition to their inferiority to the other team. If the losing team hadn't given up that run in the fourth, they wouldn't have lost, either. Let's assume for the following example that your goal is to invest your money with the least variance possible: if I wagered you $900 on the results of a fair coin flip, and I gave you the opportunity to flip the coin nine times and distribute the money pool in $200 increments based on the results, you would rather flip the coin just once?

There's a reason that baseball is considered the lowest-variance sport, and it's because it's considered a true statistician's sport. Numbers and figures take priority over instinct, and the biggest winners are incredibly studious, and vigilant in their strategies.

Maybe I am just a noob and I am misunderstanding this. Not gonna lie. My point is I believe baseball has too many variables "People" or "external factors" such as weather that one must consider before making a play.

With MMA, it's two guys inside a cage, with one goal, which is to stop the other or to win the decision. I think having to account for 18 people on a field, and how they are all feeling on any given night, night after night, is completely different than MMA, with two people, for 15 or 25 minutes. Also, baseball teams play almost every other day, for months on end, whereas fighters fight twice, maybe three times a year. In MMA, you have two guys who have been doing nothing but training for months for this one night. It's apples and oranges imo.

In baseball, A-Rod and Jeter going 0-5 can change a game, just like if Holiday can't throw strikes and the opposing team hammers him in the first inning, this significantly changes the game.

For me, studying and researching MMA seems much easier, requiring less research and time to be relatively accurate. Match ups, (example - Wrestler vs Boxer or BJJ vs Muai Thai) make the fights, and seeking out these fights is how I have been successful betting MMA, well somewhat successful. I did ok in 2012, nothing special, but I am ahead for the year. I assume the same could be said for any sport, NFL, NBA, etc. However, I believe Baseball to be the most intrecate and the most strategic sport of all, thus making it unfavorable for me betting wise, but that's just my opinion. I would rather have to account for two people instead of 18 people, but I do understand what you are saying and it makes sense.

Thanks for the reply, and schooling me. I really do appreciate it, seriously..

[Beelzebubzy]

Uncle nunya phd will come in soon and enlighten us

throws up the bat symbol

[PunisherIND]

Uncle nunya phd will come in soon and enlighten us

throws up the bat symbol

On advice of counsel, Nunya only responds to a ricebowl symbol ever since he received the cease and desist from bruce wayne.

We believe wannabet blew the whistle.

[MD]

Maybe I am just a noob and I am misunderstanding this. Not gonna lie. My point is I believe baseball has too many variables "People" or "external factors" such as weather that one must consider before making a play.

With MMA, it's two guys inside a cage, with one goal, which is to stop the other or to win the decision. I think having to account for 18 people on a field, and how they are all feeling on any given night, night after night, is completely different than MMA, with two people, for 15 or 25 minutes. Also, baseball teams play almost every other day, for months on end, whereas fighters fight twice, maybe three times a year. In MMA, you have two guys who have been doing nothing but training for months for this one night. It's apples and oranges imo.

In baseball, A-Rod and Jeter going 0-5 can change a game, just like if Holiday can't throw strikes and the opposing team hammers him in the first inning, this significantly changes the game.

For me, studying and researching MMA seems much easier, requiring less research and time to be relatively accurate. Match ups, (example - Wrestler vs Boxer or BJJ vs Muai Thai) make the fights, and seeking out these fights is how I have been successful betting MMA, well somewhat successful. I did ok in 2012, nothing special, but I am ahead for the year. I assume the same could be said for any sport, NFL, NBA, etc. However, I believe Baseball to be the most intrecate and the most strategic sport of all, thus making it unfavorable for me betting wise, but that's just my opinion. I would rather have to account for two people instead of 18 people, but I do understand what you are saying and it makes sense.

Thanks for the reply, and schooling me. I really do appreciate it, seriously..

The variables are different between the two sports. The constant playing is one of the reasons why the variance is lower in baseball; you generally know what you're getting. If you've seen the players quite recently, it gives you a better idea about how they're going to perform. An MMA fighter takes 3+ months between fights generally; often a lot longer. So much can change about both fighters in these times.

Baseball is indeed one of the most strategic sports. It can be quite difficult to handicap, and statistics are pretty much king when it comes to forming opinions. A degree in probability & statistics is probably more useful than intuition when it comes to baseball (semi-serious).

No problemo, happy to help.

[DirtyX]

The variables are different between the two sports. The constant playing is one of the reasons why the variance is lower in baseball; you generally know what you're getting. If you've seen the players quite recently, it gives you a better idea about how they're going to perform. An MMA fighter takes 3+ months between fights generally; often a lot longer. So much can change about both fighters in these times.

Baseball is indeed one of the most strategic sports. It can be quite difficult to handicap, and statistics are pretty much king when it comes to forming opinions. A degree in probability & statistics is probably more useful than intuition when it comes to baseball (semi-serious).

No problemo, happy to help.

Very good points. Thanks again.

[Jesus Christ]

I just don't see Bendo blowing Diaz out of the water....finish, 50-45, 49-46 etc..

I expect Diaz to compete in this one...he can win a decision..maybe even get a finish...at worst I see a 3-2 unanimous for Bendo which still pays...I'm either gonna double up on this prop or play one of Diaz to win..still undecided

[Jesus Christ]

One I'm keeping an eye out for is Brown/Swick...I like Brown even at the current odds but I still think I can get a better price +140ish so I'm waiting it out

[BIGDAY]

Will be waitin with ya on Brown.

Hope to get great odds close to fight time.