Bellator 80

[MD]

the line is where it should be. This fight wouldn't get sanctioned in any other state. Complete mismatch. Try and convince yourself that Evinger's good value, but he will lose and your money will be gone. No value in that my friend.

I understand your logic, but it's technically incorrect. I fully understand why you come to this conclusion, and I don't think you're stupid or anything for thinking the way you do, but I do believe that you're wrong. Best of luck with your bets on the card, though.

[Grabaka]

If Warren gets a 4 second ko it doesn't answer the question as to whether or not there is value in the Evinger line.

I agree.

[tanner]

If Warren gets a 4 second ko it doesn't answer the question as to whether or not there is value in the Evinger line.

only the individual bettor determines if there is value in the line. I studied the matchup and my line on this fight was Warren -1400. Someone else looking at the fight may think the line is way too high based on there methods of handicapping the fight, and there for believe there is value in evinger My opinion on the fight is the line is right where it should be.

[NunyaBidness]

only the individual bettor determines if there is value in the line.

That is the dumbest thing I've ever seen posted here.

Value exists when a line is off of the true probability of an event occurring. There is an exact number for every event possible, although it may be impossible for us to determine what it is.

There is no such thing as subjective truth, only truth.

[NunyaBidness]

I studied the matchup and my line on this fight was Warren -1400.

So you must have at least 7% of your bankroll on this fight then.

[MMAbetMASTA]

That is the dumbest thing I've ever seen posted here.

Value exists when a line is off of the true probability of an event occurring. There is an exact number for every event possible, although it may be impossible for us to determine what it is.

There is no such thing as subjective truth, only truth.

Oh we've seen dumber, nunya... All those memories...

[tanner]

That is the dumbest thing I've ever seen posted here.

Value exists when a line is off of the true probability of an event occurring. There is an exact number for every event possible, although it may be impossible for us to determine what it is.

There is no such thing as subjective truth, only truth.

Totally agree with that. But isn't it are job to study the fights, and form an opinion on the line. And if our opinion suggests that there is value in a certain line, we bet into it. Obviously no one is right 100% of the time.

[MD]

Obviously no one is right 100% of the time.

Some would disagree, cousin.

[gabe]

What a dumb thing to say. If evinger makes it a fight even in a loss he had value. If he gets manhandled then theres no value. No rocket science.

not really. a lot of the time these ridiculous fights are close and the heavy favorite wins, even when he deserves to lose the decision.

[Grabaka]

not really. a lot of the time these ridiculous fights are close and the heavy favorite wins, even when he deserves to lose the decision.

Come on cousin. You have good picks but you are not allowed to talk about how value works.

[gabe]

Volkov + Martinez

A little bit of respek goes a long way in this neighba'hood

[Crassus]

Volkov going on beast mode. Lucky for him the ref is a boxing guy.

[NunyaBidness]

A little bit of respek goes a long way in this neighba'hood

Everybody was on Volkov and Martinez obv.

[tanner]

Volkov going on beast mode. Lucky for him the ref is a boxing guy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFWmQKyReQk

[gabe]

Come on cousin. You have good picks but you are not allowed to talk about how value works.

you call it a value bet, i call it a sucker bet.

[gabe]

Everybody was on Volkov and Martinez obv.

everybody? lmao right

i know a lot of people were on wagney

[tanner]

you call it a value bet, i call it a sucker bet.

Truth. If you pick winners and practice good money managment, you make money. Losers talk about value after the fact when their bets lose and are looking for an excuse.

[Grabaka]

you call it a value bet, i call it a sucker bet.

If at the end of the month im up in sucker bets im in.

[Grabaka]

Truth. If you pick winners and practice good money managment, you make money. Losers talk about value after the fact when their bets lose and are looking for an excuse.

You must be picking bad value bets hence no value.

[Grabaka]

Gabe is your Nedkov bet a sucker bet?

[MD]

Truth. If you pick winners and practice good money managment, you make money. Losers talk about value after the fact when their bets lose and are looking for an excuse.

Wow.

[tanner]

i like winning bets

[Grabaka]

Tanners n Gabbers

[MD]

i like winning bets

That's cool and all, but you don't understand gambling theory. Neither does Gabe (no hate Gabe, keep winning buddy), but he apparently makes money pretty well, so if what you want to do is attempt to pick winners -> bet -> make money, that's fine, but don't criticize those of us who understand fundamental and mathematically-supported probability principles. It honestly makes you look like you have no idea what you're talking about. Thinking a bet is only good if it wins is similar to thinking a fight is only good if the guys stand there and blast each other in the face. People see your point, but no one is going to think you're very knowledgeable in the subject.

[tanner]

You must be picking bad value bets hence no value.

i pick winning bets. More winners than losers, and good money management = straight cash homie. Watch tape, study the matchups, come up with an opinion, and bet accordingly. thats what its all about. No one knows the true line and mathamatical odds of Joe Warren beating Evinger. form an opinion, come up with your own line, compare it to the marketplace, and bet accordingly. thats all you can do.

[LiveAction916]

I took Volkov and Martinez as well. CASH IT!!!

[sideloaded]

joe warren f-cking sucks

[tanner]

That's cool and all, but you don't understand gambling theory. Neither does Gabe (no hate Gabe, keep winning buddy), but he apparently makes money pretty well, so if what you want to do is attempt to pick winners -> bet -> make money, that's fine, but don't criticize those of us who understand fundamental and mathematically-supported probability principles. It honestly makes you look like you have no idea what you're talking about. Thinking a bet is only good if it wins is similar to thinking a fight is only good if the guys stand there and blast each other in the face. People see your point, but no one is going to think you're very knowledgeable in the subject.

not trying to piss you guys off. Im just a little old school. I watch alot of tape, come up with my own line, and bet on the guy i think is gonna win the fight. I just think of the word value, and the only time it is brought up is after the fight, when the bettor loses, but says, oh well it was good value. at the end of the day, aren't we all value bettors. if i see a fight that has a line that is way off from the line i came up with, and i think the line presents value, i bet into it. No one knows what the true odds are of a matchup. We study it, and come up with our own numbers. some are better at it than others.

[Grabaka]

But if nunya finds value in Evinger you come and say " i dont think there is value there because bla bla bla" and then we can stablish a conversation. But you come and say "i like to save you guys from throwing your money to the trash cos im tanner". I mean...thats no old school...thats rude and newschool.

[tanner]

But if nunya finds value in Evinger you come and say " i dont think there is value there because bla bla bla" and then we can stablish a conversation. But you come and say "i like to save you guys from throwing your money to the trash cos im tanner". I mean...thats no old school...thats rude and newschool.

yes that was a bit rude of me. I shouldn't of said that.

[Grabaka]

Ok sorry too. We all back to happy now

[PunisherIND]

But if nunya finds value in Evinger you come and say " i dont think there is value there because bla bla bla" and then we can stablish a conversation. But you come and say "i like to save you guys from throwing your money to the trash cos im tanner". I mean...thats no old school...thats rude and newschool.

I'm having flashbacks of wannabet and fosho lol.

[Grabaka]

And Jon Jones. lol

[MD]

not trying to piss you guys off. Im just a little old school. I watch alot of tape, come up with my own line, and bet on the guy i think is gonna win the fight. I just think of the word value, and the only time it is brought up is after the fight, when the bettor loses, but says, oh well it was good value. at the end of the day, aren't we all value bettors. if i see a fight that has a line that is way off from the line i came up with, and i think the line presents value, i bet into it. No one knows what the true odds are of a matchup. We study it, and come up with our own numbers. some are better at it than others.

This is, exactly, what a value bet is. If you do it, why would you criticize us for doing the same?

And don't worry, you're not pissing me off or anything. You were abrasive with your responses earlier, but it's a forum, I'm not going to take anything personally. It tends to make it harder to take your points seriously if you're phrasing them in insulting ways, though.

[tanner]

the thing i hate is when i here guys say" i don't really like fighter A to win the fight, but at +350 its worth a shot. it's good value". then after the fact they will say, oh well, it was a value bet.No, it was a losing bet. You bet on the guy you think is gonna win the fight.