PuckIt's 2012 MLB Picks

PuckIt · 07-31-12, 07:39 AM

Official plays went 1-0 yesterday for +3.5u. Had I played my leans later in the day, they would have gone 3-2.

For today, I am looking at A's, Twins, Mets, Cubs, and Royals...I like the A's a lot.

PuckIt · 07-31-12, 06:55 PM

7/31/12 Plays:

2.3x to win 2x - A's ML -115
1.5x to win 2.055x - Twins ML +137
1.25x to win 1x - Twins +1.5 -125

PuckIt · 08-01-12, 04:51 PM

1-2 last night.

08/01/12:

Reds -1 (-140)
Indians ML (-102)

PuckIt · 08-02-12, 03:06 PM

Reds RL
Mets ML
Cards ML
Braves ML
Phillies ML
Texas ML

PuckIt · 08-03-12, 10:40 AM

going to try something interesting today...I will put 2u (risk) on every team in this list and see if i can come out on top. Being that this is experimental (lol) i will be using SBR points.

Date:	Team:	Risking / To Win	Ticket#:
STRAIGHT BET	Aug 03	MLB [901] MIAMI +158 [Action]	20.00 SBR / 31.60 SBR	1595524
STRAIGHT BET	Aug 03	MLB [903] ARIZON -112 [Action]	20.00 SBR / 17.86 SBR	1595525
STRAIGHT BET	Aug 03	MLB [905] PITTSB +135 [Action]	20.00 SBR / 27.00 SBR	1595526
STRAIGHT BET	Aug 03	MLB [908] ATLANT -275 [Action]	20.00 SBR / 7.27 SBR	1595527
STRAIGHT BET	Aug 03	MLB [910] ST. LO -170 [Action]	20.00 SBR / 11.76 SBR	1595528
STRAIGHT BET	Aug 03	MLB [911] SAN FR -160 [Action]	20.00 SBR / 12.50 SBR	1595529
STRAIGHT BET	Aug 03	MLB [913] NY MET -130 [Action]	20.00 SBR / 15.38 SBR	1595530
STRAIGHT BET	Aug 03	MLB [916] LA DOD -155 [Action]	20.00 SBR / 12.90 SBR	1595531

PuckIt · 08-03-12, 04:12 PM

Adding:

Ticket#:1596104
Aug 03 07:05 PM

Internet / -1

Aug 03 05:12 PM

MLB

STRAIGHT BET
[902] WASHIN -150
( ACTION )

20.00 / 13.33

PuckIt · 08-04-12, 10:16 AM

Finished 6-3 +2.761...typical when I don't use real money! Let's try again today:

WagerType:	Date:	Team:	Risking / To Win	Ticket#:
STRAIGHT BET	Aug 04	MLB [952] WASHIN -180 [Action]	20.00 SBR / 11.11 SBR	1596935
STRAIGHT BET	Aug 04	MLB [953] ARIZON +123 [Action]	20.00 SBR / 24.60 SBR	1596936
STRAIGHT BET	Aug 04	MLB [956] CINCIN -130 [Action]	20.00 SBR / 15.38 SBR	1596937
STRAIGHT BET	Aug 04	MLB [958] ATLANT -201 [Action]	20.00 SBR / 9.95 SBR	1596938
STRAIGHT BET	Aug 04	MLB [959] MILWAU +176 [Action]	20.00 SBR / 35.20 SBR	1596939
STRAIGHT BET	Aug 04	MLB [962] COLORA +136 [Action]	20.00 SBR / 27.20 SBR	1596940
STRAIGHT BET	Aug 04	MLB [963] NY MET +126 [Action]	20.00 SBR / 25.20 SBR	1596941
STRAIGHT BET	Aug 04	MLB [966] LA DOD -290 [Action]	20.00 SBR / 6.90 SBR	1596942

PuckIt · 08-04-12, 10:53 AM

My #'s changed from overnight, and now the value looks to be on the Astros +185, but it's too late for me to make a change. I also still feel that the Braves have a 63-64% chance of winning, so I don't feel too bad about the play, but if you want the actual *smart value* play, its the Astros.

The Atlanta Braves are 31-25 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the Houston Astros who are 10-45 on the road this season. The Braves have a better than 55% chance of winning. Braves' starter Paul Maholm is forecasted to have a better game than Astros' starter Lucas Harrell. Paul Maholm has a 70% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Lucas Harrell has a 52% chance of a QS. If Paul Maholm has a quality start the Braves has a 72% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 5.2 and he has a 47% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Braves win 67%. In Lucas Harrell quality starts the Astros win 53%. He has a 17% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 53%. The most productive batter for the Atlanta Braves is Chipper Jones who averaged 2.3 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 40% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Braves have a 78% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Houston Astros is Jose Altuve who averaged 1.78 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 25% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Astros have a 53% chance of winning.

PuckIt · 08-05-12, 11:54 AM

Phillies -141
Braves -235
Rockies +142
Cubs +161
Cards -167
Nats -230
Reds -115

PuckIt · 08-05-12, 12:11 PM

Pirates U8 -105

PuckIt · 08-05-12, 12:34 PM

Phillies U8 -135

PuckIt · 08-05-12, 06:43 PM

Cards -1 (-132)

PuckIt · 08-06-12, 11:50 AM

Today's most UNDER RATED teams:

Nats ML - (-185) Line gives them +/- 63% chance of winning. I put them around 72%.
Rockies ML - (+168) Line gives them +/- 36% chance of winning. I put them around 46-47%.
Detroit ML - (-177) Line gives them +/- 63% chance of winning. I put them around 70%.
Boston ML - (+125) Line gives them +/- 43% chance of winning. I put them at 53%.
LA Angels ML - (-145) Line gives them +/- 58% chance of winning. I put them at 69%.

*These are not specifically what I am playing, just some information for you guys. I am sticking to the NL side value trend.

PuckIt · 08-06-12, 11:52 AM

Plays:

GameDate	User/Phone	Date Placed	Sport	Description	Risk/Win
Ticket#:1599250 Aug 06 07:05 PM	Internet / -1	Aug 06 08:55 AM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [951] ATLANT -120 ( ACTION )	20.00 / 16.67
Ticket#:1599251 Aug 06 07:05 PM	Internet / -1	Aug 06 08:55 AM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [953] ARIZON -115 ( ACTION )	20.00 / 17.39
Ticket#:1599252 Aug 06 08:05 PM	Internet / -1	Aug 06 08:55 AM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [955] WASHIN -185 ( ACTION )	20.00 / 10.81
Ticket#:1599253 Aug 06 08:10 PM	Internet / -1	Aug 06 08:55 AM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [957] CINCIN +115 ( ACTION )	20.00 / 23.00
Ticket#:1599254 Aug 06 10:05 PM	Internet / -1	Aug 06 08:55 AM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [961] CHI. C +115 ( ACTION )	20.00 / 23.00
Ticket#:1599255 Aug 06 10:10 PM	Internet / -1	Aug 06 08:55 AM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [963] COLORA +156 ( ACTION )	20.00 / 31.20
Ticket#:1599450 Aug 06 08:15 PM	Internet / -1	Aug 06 12:51 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [959] SAN FR EV ( ACTION )	20.00 / 20.00

PuckIt · 08-07-12, 05:00 PM

Originally posted by PuckIt

Today's most UNDER RATED teams:

Nats ML - (-185) Line gives them +/- 63% chance of winning. I put them around 72%.
Rockies ML - (+168) Line gives them +/- 36% chance of winning. I put them around 46-47%.
Detroit ML - (-177) Line gives them +/- 63% chance of winning. I put them around 70%.
Boston ML - (+125) Line gives them +/- 43% chance of winning. I put them at 53%.
LA Angels ML - (-145) Line gives them +/- 58% chance of winning. I put them at 69%.

*These are not specifically what I am playing, just some information for you guys. I am sticking to the NL side value trend.

Nats - WIN
Rockies - WIN
Detroit - WIN
Boston - WIN
Angels - WIN

...can't believe I didn't play these!

PuckIt · 08-07-12, 05:05 PM

8/7/12 - Most UNDER RATED teams:

Phillies - (-136) Line: 56% / My #'s: 66%
Brewers - (+105) Line: 48% / My #'s: 56%
Cards - (-200) Line: 65% / My #'s: 71%
Rockies - (+159) Line: 38% / My #'s: 47%
Mariners - (+121) Line: 44% / My #'s: 55%
Indians - (+100) Line: 49% / My #'s: 61%
Rangers - (+104) Line: 48% / My #'s: 57%
White Sox - (-206) Line: 66% / My #'s: 71%

I will be playing the ones in Bold.

PuckIt · 08-07-12, 09:30 PM

Wow - White Sox and Cards are really gonna blow it.

PuckIt · 08-08-12, 04:21 PM

3x Mets -1
2x Padres ML

PuckIt · 08-10-12, 02:13 PM

Cubs +1.5
Cubs O6
Cards
Pirates -1
Yanks -1

PuckIt · 08-14-12, 12:18 PM

Pirates -2.5 (+345)

PuckIt · 08-15-12, 04:51 PM

Dodgers TT O4 +100
LAD / PIT O3 [1st 5] (-140)

PuckIt · 08-15-12, 04:58 PM

Red Sox + 119

PuckIt · 08-16-12, 08:35 AM

2-1 yesterday.

Today we'll start with LAD +120 and LAD -1.5 +185.

PuckIt · 08-16-12, 08:56 AM

Lad tt o3.5 +105
tor tt o3.5 -125

PuckIt · 08-16-12, 05:25 PM

CWS / TOR O4 [1st 5] -140

PuckIt · 08-16-12, 08:48 PM

Stl o8 -105

PuckIt · 08-17-12, 10:19 AM

Royals TT O3 -120
CWS / KC O8 +105
Arizona TT O5 -115
Arizona -1.5 -110

PuckIt · 08-17-12, 04:55 PM

Trying something a little interesting here:

Parlay:
SAN Silver Stars -400
Minnesota lynx -1800
Diamondbacks -182
Detroit Tigers -275

Total: +178

PuckIt · 08-17-12, 10:33 PM

Originally posted by PuckIt

Royals TT O3 -120 --> WIN
CWS / KC O8 +105 --> LOSS
Arizona TT O5 -115 --> LOSS
Arizona -1.5 -110 --> WIN

Originally posted by PuckIt

Trying something a little interesting here:

Parlay:
SAN Silver Stars -400
Minnesota lynx -1800
Diamondbacks -182
Detroit Tigers -275

Total: +178 --> WIN!

Not bad! Parlay came in huge.

PuckIt · 08-17-12, 11:05 PM

A bit of soccer tomorrow:

Newcastle (ENG-P) +172 vs Tottenham (ENG-P)
Southampton (ENG-P)/Manchester City (ENG-P) O3 -120

PuckIt · 08-29-12, 11:22 AM

Go figure when I stop posting plays:

21-4-3

PuckIt · 09-01-12, 02:59 PM

Brewers - Brewers are 31-4 against the buccos when they play at home and in their opponents previous game their opponent was the dog and lost.

Detroit - Tigers have gone 25-6 against the AL Central when they play with the total set at 8.5 and in their previous game they were the favorite, and won, and their opponents lost their previous game.

Colorado - Rockies are 56-16 in the 2nd game of a series and in the opponents previous game their opponent was the dog and won.

SEA / LAA Under - Seattle has gone UNDER 23 out of the last 31 games in the 2nd game of a series with King Felix starting and in their previous game they were a dog, and in the opponents previous game they were a favorite, and won.

STL Under 8

Rangers

Dodgers