MLB Fade Plays. I pick em, and keep track of the + money fading me.

[H1Cypher]

May 8th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
Toronto Blue Jays -115 vs Oakland Athletics +105 to win 2 units

ESPN has me thinking this is easy money. Like yesterday I wanted to make the Rangers a 3x play becacuse I am deep in the red and need to figure out how to get back in the black. Well this pick isn't as strong as the Rangers according to accuscore and the odds are less juiced. However, the write up is on the Blue Jays more so than it was on the Rangers yesterday. So I'm liking this obviously. Thanks ESPN write up .

[H1Cypher]

May 6th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
Cincinnati Reds -124 vs Pittsburgh Pirates +119 to win 1 unit
Atlanta Braves -114 vs Colorado Rockies +104 to win .5u

May 7th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold:
Total Runs Under 8.5 +105, over is -120 St Louis Cardinalsvs Arizona Diamondbacks risk 1 unit
-128 Texas Ranges vs Baltimore Orioles +118 to win 2 units

+1.5 units on May 6th for me. +1u on May 7th = +2.5u betting my amount for me
-1.5u fading my amount May 6th. -2u for the Orioles loss +1 unit for the total = -2.5u fading to my amount
-2 units on May 6th. -1u loss for the Orioles +1 for the total making it a push for May 7th.

MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
My Record 31-36 +/-: -9.845u
Fade Record with Moneyline dogs fading my amount rather than +1 or +1.5 as the fade bet: 36-31 +9.607 units
Fade Record Playing Opposite me with Runline +1 or +1.5:36-31 fade +/-: +8.745 units

Flat Bet Fading my MLB picks on the moneyline 1 unit per pick: 36-31 +13.49u

Went 1-1 on May 8th have yet to update that record, will do that combined with todays results.

[H1Cypher]

May 9th(my picks are in bold):
New York Yankees -135 vs Tampa Bay Rays(+125) to win .5 unit

May 8th picks:
Texas Rangers -105 vs Baltimore Orioles -105 to win 1 unit Win
Toronto Blue Jays -115 vs Oakland Athletics +105 to win 2 units Loss

[H1Cypher]

May 9th(my picks are in bold):<br>
<strong>New York Yankees -135 vs</strong> Tampa Bay Rays(+125) to win .5 unit <img src="http://forum.cloud.static-files.com/vb4/images/smilies/thumbsdownsmileyanim.gif" alt="" title="Thumbsdownsmiley" smilieid="53" class="inlineimg" border="0"><br>

May 8th picks:<br>
<strong>Texas Rangers -105 </strong>vs Baltimore Orioles -105 to win 1 unit Win <img src="http://forum.cloud.static-files.com/vb4/images/smilies/20090121/machinegun.gif" alt="" title="MachineGun" smilieid="1579" class="inlineimg" border="0"><br>
<strong>Toronto Blue Jays -115</strong> vs Oakland Athletics +105 to win 2 units Loss <img src="http://forum.cloud.static-files.com/vb4/images/smilies/thumbsdownsmileyanim.gif" alt="" title="Thumbsdownsmiley" smilieid="53" class="inlineimg" border="0">

I saw +130 was easy to get for the Rays even after I posted it I saw it go back tot -140 for the Yankees for some time and some spots. I'll play it as +128 instead of +130.
Fading to my amount drops 1.05 units but is makes back 2.1u with the Athletics and anoher +.64 with the Yankees loss. +1.69 past 2 days fading to my amount. Same for runline cause I didn't play a runline just totals and moneylines.

Flat fading is -1.05 for the Orioles +1.05 for the Athletics, and +1.28 for the Rays. +1.28 for the past 2 days flat bet fading.

Betting to my amount I win 1 unit but give it drop 2.3u on the Blue Jays, and another .675u on the Yankees. -1.975 for the day for me

MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
My Record 32-38 +/-: -11.82u
Fade Record with Moneyline dogs fading my amount rather than +1 or +1.5 as the fade bet: 38-32 +11.297 units
Fade Record Playing Opposite me with Runline +1 or +1.5:38-32 fade +/-: +10.44 units

Flat Bet Fading my MLB picks on the moneyline 1 unit per pick: 38-32 +14.77u<br>
<br>

[H1Cypher]

May 10th.
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold)
+114 Oakland Athletics vs Detroit Tigers -124 to win 1.14 units
-142 Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins +132 to win 1 unit
Total Runs Under 9 -110 Cleveland Indians vs Boston Red Sox over is -110 to win .5units

It seems like when I say easy money my moneyline pick loses, just coincidental ya know. What happens if I say it in back to back days? will have no effect coincidental things dont happen every time.

Both of these moneyline picks feel like easy money after viewing all the ESPN write ups; the Blue Jays felt like SUCH EASY MONEY I almost didn't play it- didn't want to give my fade a loss... but I can't not post a play just because I think it is too easy and no way I lose. I might split but I see no way I lose 2 and I think I could potentially win both. Not sure if I wanted to go with Red Sox under 5 -125 or under 9 -110. Played both teams hopefully it doesn't backfire.

[H1Cypher]

May 10th.
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold)
+114 Oakland Athletics vs Detroit Tigers -124 to win 1.14 units
-142 Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins +132 to win 1 unit
Total Runs Under 9 -110 Cleveland Indians vs Boston Red Sox over is -110 to win .5units

I knew the Blue Jays was just too easy money. Even though I haven't watched an inning of baseball in my life. After reading so many ESPN write ups I know which teams are horrible and which are not. Should've just not posted it but that would go against the methodology. Should have picked a different game to ESPN pre write up cap that I could have done.

Steady sailing

Betting to my amount I drop 1 unit on the Athletics, regain it back with the Blue jays. But drop .55u on the total loss for -.55u on the day.
Fading to my amount: +1u -1u +.5u = +.5u
Flat bet fade goes is +1u -1u +1u = +1u

MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
My Record 33-40 +/-: -12.37u
Fade Record with Moneyline dogs fading my amount rather than +1 or +1.5 as the fade bet: 40-33 +11.797 units
Fade Record Playing Opposite me with Runline +1 or +1.5:40-33 fade +/-: +10.94 units

Flat Bet Fading my MLB picks on the moneyline 1 unit per pick: 40-33 +15.77u

Only been making the picks for about a month, a real small sample size. I am already amused at how there is less variance fading me, =D. Where as LTA is trying his best to pick winners and he can't make more money than my thread. And I also gave him a 10 unit lead, lol!

Give a winning capper a 10 unit lead, and still end up being + more units than him.

[H1Cypher]

May 11th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold)
Houston Astros +121 vs Pittsburgh Pirates -131 risk 1 unit

Will have at least 1 more tomorrow. It was either this the yankees, the under in the yankee game or the under in the red sox game. I ended up going with the Astros for the 7 pm game.

[BeBrave]

OIC what you did there....

[H1Cypher]

May 11th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold)
St Louis Cardinals -138 vs Atlanta Braves +128 to win 3 units

Big winning streak over the Braves for the Cardinals according to ESPN pre game. Cardinals basically dominate this team especially at home says ESPN write up. Nothing seems wrong with this. I dunno dare I say it's just too easy.

[H1Cypher]

May 11th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold)
Houston Astros +121 vs Pittsburgh Pirates -131 risk 1 unit
St Louis Cardinals -138 vs Atlanta Braves +128 to win 3 units

I had to say it didn't I, lol 'easy money'. It's like the magic word for lightning to strike.

I win 1.21 with the Astros but take a huge hit when I drop 4.14 units playing the Cardinals.
Fading to my amount is a 1.31 unit loss but a 3.84 gain = +2.53 units
Same for runline I didn't play any of those.
Flat bet fading is down .03 units.


MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
My Record 34-41 +/-: -15.3u
Fade Record with Moneyline dogs fading my amount rather than +1 or +1.5 as the fade bet: 41-34 +14.327 units
Fade Record Playing Opposite me with Runline +1 or +1.5:41-34 fade +/-: +13.47 units

Flat Bet Fading my MLB picks on the moneyline 1 unit per pick: 41-34 +15.74u


May 12th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold)
Over 7.5 Total Runs -125 Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Under is +105 to win .5u

I wanted to take the over but that is -105 so I just made it easier for me to win. And bought a half a point making my play the chalked favorite. Will put up another 2 today just getting in the early game.

[H1Cypher]

May 12th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold)
Over 7.5 Total Runs -125 Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Under is +105 to win .5u

Winner. Man these totals are too easy. If I tried a bit harder I could make money off totals. I can't seem to lose 2 out of 3 of these. My original pick was the Rangers over the Angels, and the Rangers lost but that was off the board. *shrug*

May 12th:
MLB Fade Plays:
LA Dodgers -124 vs Colorado Rockies +114 to win 2 units

My other pick was going to be the Orioles for the mid day time. I dunno about picking 1 dog a day though that might be too much; the 4 pm games there wasn't much I wanted to play. Not much about these two teams in the write up. Just gibberish about how one guy is struggling and the other pitcher had a good game yesterday. Accuscore has the Dodgers as huge favorites over 60% and at -124, this is a must play =p.

[H1Cypher]

May 13th:
MLB Fade Plays:
Cincinnati Reds -128 vs Washington Nationals +118 to win 1 unit
Nationals at Cincinatti Reds Total Runs under 8.5 -130 vs Over 8.5 +110 to win 2 units

ESPN write up has me fairly confident in this total judging by the chalk it makes sense. Also fairly confident in the Reds themselves. This is my first time going with a total and a team in the same game will see how it works out. Will have 1 or 2 more tomorrow.

Yesterdays results:
May 12th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold)
Over 7.5 Total Runs -125 Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Under is +105 to win .5u
LA Dodgers -124 vs Colorado Rockies +114 to win 2 units

Went 2-0 yesterday. I win 2.5 units. Fading to my amount drops 2.5u. Flat bet fading drops 2 units. Pretty simple today.


MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
My Record 36-41 +/-: -12.8u
Fade Record with Moneyline dogs fading my amount rather than +1 or +1.5 as the fade bet: 41-36 +11.827 units
Fade Record Playing Opposite me with Runline +1 or +1.5:41-36 fade +/-: +10.97 units

Flat Bet Fading my MLB picks on the moneyline 1 unit per pick: 41-36 +13.74u

[H1Cypher]

May 14th. MLB Fade plays, picks are in bold.
Toronto Blue Jays -144 vs Tampa Bay Rays to win .5 units

Went 1-1 yesterday.

Bah yesterday I was busy with real bets and I forgot to post my last play.. Which of course was a dog loser- would have had my fade + money on the day. Doesn't matter yet I guess wit hthe sample bein small, but that's ecxactly why it matters. In a rush today had a long work day. Will get to 1 more later today. ESPN write up as usual.

Who is this fuckin \*\*\*\*\*\* Bebrave sending me love letters in private mesage. he writes me one once a week I think he is obsessed. Sick people on this forum I swear.

[H1Cypher]

May 15th MLB fade Plays(picks are in bold):
New York Mets +123 vs Milwaukee Brewers -133 to risk 1 unit


I threw up all day yesterday. So bad the capillaries in my face popped. Anyway that's why I'm running late. Unlike some who bitch about being sick I just overcome it. Will update the record at the end of the day most likely. I'm running on 5 hours of sleep after throwing up all night. Will have one more almost for sure later today. This was one was courtesy of ESPN pre game write ups as usual. I went 0-1 yesterday with the Blue Jays loss.

[H1Cypher]

May 15th MLB Fade Plays:

LA Dodgers -111 vs Arizona Diamondbacks +101 to win 3 units


Anyway odds are too good to be true and ESPN pre game write up loves the Dodgers so. Gotta get back in the black somehow, or at least that should be the goal. if that is the result, well that is a whole another question as you can see by the record tracker. I like this alot, enough to make it a 4 unit but I won't. Haven't made a 4 unit bet yet and I'll need to be more in the red before I come with a 4 unit play.

[H1Cypher]

MLB Fade Plays:
Cincinnati Reds -128 vs Washington Nationals +118 to win 1 unit
Nationals at Cincinatti Reds Total Runs under 8.5 -130 vs Over 8.5 +110(+115) to win 2 units

Plays I post the in the morning I will count the number easiest to get in my eyes. +115 was very easy to get on the runs so that's what I will play. Line even moed to 7.5 for most of the day anyway.

May 14th. MLB Fade plays, picks are in bold.
Toronto Blue Jays -144 vs Tampa Bay Rays +134 to win .5 units

May 15th MLB fade Plays(picks are in bold):
New York Mets +123 vs Milwaukee Brewers -133 to risk 1 unit

LA Dodgers -111 vs Arizona Diamondbacks +101(+106) to win 3 units

25 minutes after I posted this the line went to +106 and -116 and held until the start of the game. That is what I will be playing it at.

May 13th: 1-1 May 14th: 0-1 May 15th: 0-2

I lose/in: Win 1 unit from the Reds, drop 2.6 units betting the total. Drop .72 units on the Blue Jays. I drop 1 unit on the Mets and 3.33 units with the Dodgers loss.
+1 -2.6 -.72 -1 -3.33 = 6.65 units lost in 3 days -12.8u = -19.45 units

Fading to my amount: -1 unit(reds) +2.3 units(total) +.67 Jays +1 Brewers + 3.18 LA = +6.15 units in 3 days +11.827 units = +17.977 units

Flat Bet fading: -1 +1.15 total +1.34 Jays +1 unit Brewers + +1.06 Dodgers = +3.55 units in 3 days +13.74 = +17.29u

MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
My Record 37-45 +/-: -19.45u

Fade Record with Moneyline dogs fading my amount rather than +1 or +1.5 as the fade bet: 45-37 +17.977 units
Fade Record Playing Opposite me with Runline +1 or +1.5:45-37 fade +/-: +17.12 units (only when i play runlines otherwise ML fade)

Flat Bet Fading my MLB picks on the moneyline 1 unit per pick: 45-37 +17.29u

One of the most steady and profitable threads thus far this season.

One of the least swingy threads. Shows how great my money management is . There's only been 1 bad swing for the fade in a small sample size. Like I said before if you had tot bet - Would you bet a good capper wins more or I lose more. Can't even include LTAs name he's back down below 10 units- not even close to my MLB capping skills. Still have not watched more than 5 innings of baseball(just watched my first inning in this Dodger/Diamondback game).

[H1Cypher]

May 16th
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold)
Tampa Bay Rays -138 vs Boston Red Sox +128 to win 2 units

ESPN likes this and I'm sold also. Boston is a struggling team going on the road against a better team, easy peazy thanks ESPN pre game. I'm almost to the point where making bets of 1 unit per game will hardly make a dent in the deficit, this should probably be to win 3 units. Gonna come with one or two more for the later time slots also.

[H1Cypher]

No bets yet for the Celtic Philly game 3. Once the game went way over the total in the 1st quarter. I didn't want to bet under before the 2nd started knowing the totals could go higher, in which case I would target the unders or the totals could go lower where i could target overs late in the 2nd quarter unless I feel they are too sharp and the quarter is one of thoses deadly 28 point quarters for both teams. Then I might not play it. Just depends on the numbers that are put up and how I feel about them in relation to how the game is going.

[H1Cypher]

May 16th
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold)
Philadelphia Phillies +144 vs Chicago Cubs -154 risk 1 unit
St Louis Cardinals -107 vs San Francisco Giants -103 to win 1 unit
Chicago White Sox +103 vs Los Angeles Angels -113 risk 2 units

Taking time off half time of this NBA game to read these ESPN pre game write ups and make my picks for the day. That's it.

[H1Cypher]

Phillies game had just gone under way when I put this up too late by a couple minutes. Cancel it. This is what my card is for the day.

May 16th
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold)
Tampa Bay Rays -138 vs Boston Red Sox +128 to win 2 units
St Louis Cardinals -107 vs San Francisco Giants -103 to win 1 unit
Chicago White Sox +103 vs Los Angeles Angels -113 risk 2 units

[H1Cypher]

I went 2-1 on May 16th. With every losing day I'm due I guess.

May 17th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
New York Mets +105 vs Cincinatti Reds-115my risk 2 units
Colorado Rockies -120 vs Arizona Diamondbacks +110 to win 1 unit
Tampa Bay Rays -127 vs Boston Red Sox +117 to win 2 units
New York Yankees -116 vs Toronto Blue Jays +106 to win 2 units
Atlanta Braves -141 vs Miami Marlins +131 to win 4 units

Gotta get back in the black and why not do it all in 1 day. I usually come with less picks when I think I will have a winning day just to pad my fade stats, and it has been working like a charm. I'm pretty good at knowing when I will have a losing or winning day and I just strategically make an extra pick on days where I suspect I will be losing- and it has worked like a charm.

This time I am doing the opposite since I don't expect a losing day, just to see what will happen.

[H1Cypher]

2-1 on Wed. 2-3 on Thursday May 17th. Will update both +/i at the end of the day or after I pick todays MLB games. I use vegasinsider website to go back and check the offshore odds for the entire day so it's accurate no worries.

Funny yesterday I could have went 2-4 I wanted to add the nationals too, but that would be 4 mid day games and all 4 favorites of that time slot lol.

May 18th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold)
Tampa Bay Rays -120 vs Atlanta Braves +110 to win 1 unit
-118 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals +108 to win 2 unit
Total Runs under 7 -143 / over is +123 St. Louis Cardinals vs LA Dodgers to win 3 units

Just gonna keep adding to my sample size with the daily picks.

[H1Cypher]

Been busy lately haven't had the time to make picks for a sport I'm not betting on, or not yet at least. Will start adding to my sample soon hopefully. If I thought anyone was fading I would force myself to keep making picks =p but since I am pretty sure I'm just working on my sample I don't mind taking days even a week off.

[TheBeastMode]

Been busy lately haven't had the time to make picks for a sport I'm not betting on, or not yet at least. Will start adding to my sample soon hopefully. If I thought anyone was fading I would force myself to keep making picks =p but since I am pretty sure I'm just working on my sample I don't mind taking days even a week off.

I've been fading

[H1Cypher]

I've been fading

Well I'm sorry for taking a little over half a week off then =p. I'll just keep picking games then.

MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold)
May 23rd:
Detroit Tigers -108 vs Cleveland Indians -102 to win 2.5 units

Will do one more game today likely the evening time slot making it 1-3 picks for today. Tackle the whole card tomorrow I shall. For the earlier games it was the Brewers, the Phillies, and the Tampa Bay Rays as the possible plays. I'm surprised this game to be at such close odds when ESPN accuscore is giving the Tigers over a 60% chance of victory, and at -108 this could sounds good to me.

Will come with 1 more pick likely later today.

I'll update my record later today. 2-1 on Wed May 16th. 2-3 on Thursday May 17th. 1-2 on Friday May 18th. Like I said I would have kept making picks daily had I known someone was putting them to good use =).

Edit: By the way I made these picks about 6 hours ago way early in the morning. Including the Phillies and rays which I didn't post. I would likely have played 3 games today at different time slots or more but because I took a week off I decided to just pick 2 or 3 of the later games. Why? I dunno lol.

[TheBeastMode]

No worries, as long as you keep picking losers

Thanks!

[H1Cypher]

No worries, as long as you keep picking losers

Thanks!

That's what I'm here for .

I'm actually trying to pick winners just with restrictions like sticking to mostly favorites as a rule so if I see value in a dog I more than likely am not allowed to post it as per my 'restrictions' (I also try to cap the games after feeling great ie invincible, or really tired lol- whether this effects the results I dunno.) Even when you pick 'losers' there is strategy involves... and I am a strategist .

May 16th
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold)
Tampa Bay Rays -138 vs Boston Red Sox +128 to win 2 units Win
St Louis Cardinals -107 vs San Francisco Giants -103 to win 1 unit Win
Chicago White Sox +103 vs Los Angeles Angels -113 risk 2 units Loss

May 17th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
New York Mets +105 vs Cincinatti Reds-115my risk 2 units Win for me
Colorado Rockies -120 vs Arizona Diamondbacks +110 to win 1 unit Loss for me
Tampa Bay Rays -127 vs Boston Red Sox +117 to win 2 units Loss for me
New York Yankees -116 vs Toronto Blue Jays +106 to win 2 units Loss for me
Atlanta Braves -141 vs Miami Marlins +131 to win 4 units Win for me

May 18th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold)
Tampa Bay Rays -120 vs Atlanta Braves +110 to win 1 unit Loss for me
-118 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals +108 to win 2 unit Win for me
Total Runs under 7 -143 / over is +123 St. Louis Cardinals vs LA Dodgers to win 3 units Loss for me

May 23rd:
Detroit Tigers -108 vs Cleveland Indians -102 to win 2.5 units Loss for me

Only reason I stuck to one game was cause there were only 2 or 3 games left and not much time before they started. If I pick a game between 1 or 2 games it's not really picking it's just taking the last favorite of the last remaining game =p. Only 12 images allowed lol, will edit and update the actual record itself momentarily.

The more I lose the larger my unit sizes will get to try and win it back. I had alot of .5 to win unit plays and that led to flat fading to be more profitable early on. Once winning .5, 1 units, and 2 units eventually is now snowballing into winning 1units 2 units and 3 units and slowly exceeding flat fading when flat fading had a huge lead early on. I wonder if it will stay like that for the remainder of the season. It's not like people who bet 5 units here and 2 units there- and show huge variance but end up down -100 units still. Fading me somehow had a totally UNINTENDED(actually it was partially intended, that is the reason I started with .5u early till I was down more also proves a point ;P) effect of slowly growing the roll. Notice most of my early plays were small bets .5 1 units and 2 units here and there- once I was down over 15 units the bets went up- and the fade bankroll continued to grow it's been steady progression with very little variance surprisingly. Interesting results so far.

I win betting to my amount:
+2 units + 1u - 2units +2.1u -1.2u -2.54u -2.32u +4u -1.2u +2u -4.29u(ouch total =p) -2.7u = -5.15 units for me

Fading to my amount:
-2u, -1.03u, +2u, -2.3u +1.1u +2.34 +2.12u -4u +1.1 -2 +3.69 +2.5 = +3.52 and same for runline since I didn't play any of those.

Fading flat 1 unit per pick: -1 unit, -1.03 units, +1 unit, -1.15u, +1.1u, +1.17, +1.06, -1u, +1.1, -1u, +1.23, +1 = +2.48 units

MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
My Record 42-52 +/-: -24.6u

Fade Record with Moneyline dogs fading my amount rather than +1 or +1.5 as the fade bet: 52-42 +21.497 units
Fade Record Playing Opposite me with Runline +1 or +1.5:52-42 fade +/-: +20.64 units (only when i play runlines otherwise ML fade)

Flat Bet Fading my MLB picks on the moneyline 1 unit per pick: 52-42 +19.77u

[ColdBeerHere]

cool man i just found your thread...i'll keep an eye on it...keep pickin' the losers

[H1Cypher]

5/24/2012
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold)

New York Mets -131 vs San Diego Padres +121 to win 2.5 units
St. Louis Cardinals -133 vs Philadelphia Phillies +132 to win 2 units

I really like both of these with ESPN pre game, particularly the Mets play. Interestingly enough accuscore gives the Mets a 59% edge in its simulation, and the Cardinals a 62% edge according to accuscore. The write ups themselves more so on the Mets pretty hard. I really think I'm gonna go 2-0 today honestly, I've said this before and lost. Never trying to jinx it just my opinion before I bet these 2 seem like sure winners to me especially the Mets. Not alot of games on the card today.

I think the games have aligned for me =p today, a winning day after 3 losing ones just my opinion lol.

[H1Cypher]

cool man i just found your thread...i'll keep an eye on it...keep pickin' the losers

Should be interesting =p, I don't see my % improving wonder where it'll go myself.

Every day I see a dog I'd like to play but if I played a dog a day that would go against what I'm trying to do. Also go against one of my key restrictions of not picking too many dogs. Going to keep a separate record of what I would go if I picked 1 dog a day.

Will probably still be around 45-50% I assume but can't really include it in my actual record since picking 1 dog a day would be a total change up of the current method.

Today it is the Seattle Mariners +107 vs LA Angels -117.
Underdog Picks record: 0-0

[H1Cypher]

5/24/2012
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold)

New York Mets -131 vs San Diego Padres +121 to win 2.5 units
St. Louis Cardinals -133 vs Philadelphia Phillies +123 to win 2 units

, so much for that 2-0 day I predicted =p. Well it is what it is and I never claimed it to be anything other than what it is. And gladly it is what it is ;p. 0-2 on May 24th for me.



I lose: 3.275u on the Mets and another -2.66 = -5.935 units

Fading to my amount goes: +3.025u + 2.46u on the Phillies = +5.485

Flat fading goes: +1.21u and +1.23 u = +2.44

I probably should up the flat fade to 1.5 or 2 units by now or add another category. Flat fading had almost a 10 unit lead but eventually once I kept losing; I had to win it back thus upped the units from to win .5, 1, and 2 to 1, 2, and 3. Early on alot of my bets were small bets once I went deep into the red I had to increase my units, and thus the fade record of my thread is showing alot more profit playing with house money. Will the variance kick up, I'm not sure. Steady sailing thus far though. Very steady.

MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
My Record 42-54 +/-: -30.535u

Fade Record with Moneyline dogs fading my amount rather than +1 or +1.5 as the fade bet: 54-42 +26.982 units
Fade Record Playing Opposite me with Runline +1 or +1.5:54-42 fade +/-: +26.125 units (only when i play runlines otherwise ML fade)

Flat Bet Fading my MLB picks on the moneyline 1 unit per pick: 54-42 +22.21u

[H1Cypher]

May 26th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold)

San Francisco Giants +107 vs Miami Marlins -117 my risk 2 units
Baltimore Orioles -117 vs Kansas City Royals +107 to win 3 units

I like both of these games with the assistance of the espn pre game. I know the Giants are not a favorite but I really like their chances to win back some of the units I'm down and so I post it. This Miami team is pretty shaky isn't it? Anyway, what ever I think lately seems to just go the opposite. Still have only watched 1 inning of baseball ever. When I think a pick will get me back in the black I have to post it and I think both of these could win for me.


I came home late enough yesterday to where I woke up in the after noon and by that time it didn't make sense to put up my picks. This was mainly due to there being no NBA game on yesterday. I'm not sure if I'll come with more picks today but I will likely get in 1 more for the evening slot.

Today it is the Seattle Mariners +107 vs LA Angels -117. Loss for me
Underdog Picks record: 0-1 -1 unit

I'll be picking a couple of big dogs today to update that record. Will look for what I deem is a dog that will win and see how it goes.

[H1Cypher]

May 26th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold)

San Francisco Giants +107 vs Miami Marlins -117 my risk 2 units
Baltimore Orioles -117 vs Kansas City Royals +107 to win 3 units

Lol, I really am that bad =p. I passed out, power nap before this NBA game and my skills go into work. Anyways..... should I even make a pick for the 7 pm game??? 0-5 in my last 5 picks, anyone fading me should understand the power of my picks by now. And understand the intelligence of my strategy .

Expect to see bigger units and the results to continue to snowball. Do you really think I'm going to surge back and win that many games? That is what I need to do. Consider how much MLB knowledge I have.

I drop 3.51 u and another 2 u = 5.51 lost for me
Fading me wins: 3.21u + 2 units.
Flat bet 1 unit fading goes: +1unit +1.07u = +2.07u
2
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
My Record 42-56 +/-: -36.045u

Fade Record with Moneyline dogs fading my amount rather than +1 or +1.5 as the fade bet: 56-42 +32.192 units
Fade Record Playing Opposite me with Runline +1 or +1.5:56-42 fade +/-: +31.335 units (only when i play runlines otherwise ML fade)

Flat Bet Fading my MLB picks on the moneyline 1 unit per pick: 56-42 +24.28u

[H1Cypher]

May 27th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold)
Los Angeles Angels -134 vs Seattle Mariners +124 to win 1 unit
LA Dodgers -130 vs Houston Astros +120 to win 2 units

ESPN write up likes these as the favorites so I'll just sit comfortably being on the right side, according to the espn pre game write up. I dunno how easy it is in MLB to beat a team 4 times in a row like the Angels, but I'm not factoring that. In my 4 game losing streak I've I've been ignoring how the series was going and try to stick more to the espn pre game, whether it has an effect I dunno. I never paid attention to it much before anyways so I don't think it had an effect.

Todays Dog of the Day is:
Oakland Athletics +108 vs New York Yankees -118 +108

Underdog Picks record: 0-1 -1 unit

[H1Cypher]

May 27th:
MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold)
Los Angeles Angels -134 vs Seattle Mariners +124 to win 1 unit
LA Dodgers -130 vs Houston Astros +120 to win 2 units

2-0 today. Made a dent now time for the miraculous run , not serious.

+3 units for me.
Fading to my amount is -3 units. Same for runline cause I didn't play any.
Flat bet fade goes -2 units.

MLB Fade Plays(my picks are in bold):
My Record 44-56 +/-: -33.045u

Fade Record with Moneyline dogs fading my amount rather than +1 or +1.5 as the fade bet: 56-44 +29.192 units
Fade Record Playing Opposite me with Runline +1 or +1.5:56-44 fade +/-: +28.335 units (only when i play runlines otherwise ML fade)

Flat Bet Fading my MLB picks on the moneyline 1 unit per pick: 56-44 +22.28u


Todays Dog of the Day is:
Oakland Athletics +108 vs New York Yankees -118 +108

Underdog Picks record: 0-2 -2 units