Weaver cashes and a little more something relevant perhaps about to go down .....
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Record: 7-4 [+2.25]Comment -
I'm sold - tailing your Ninja soccer and KO picksComment -
May 3rd: Marlins P Anibal Sanchez Total Ks Over 5 [-115]
Sanchez is the top dog right now when it comes to K rate at 11.68 per 9 innings. He is coming off a dominant 14 K outing against Arizona which was on the heels of eight and seven strikeout performances. He has only failed to register five Ks once in four starts. That was his opener against the Phillies. The Giants have the 2nd lowest K rate next to Kansas City, but Sanchez has been so dominant that it's worth the roll here. He has faced SF twice as a starter over the last two seasons, two CG shutouts with 8 Ks in each.Comment -
Looks like we're stuck with a push on 5. Sanchez probably done with his spot due up in the 8th. Thought we might get #6 on the last batter. Had Theriot 0-2, but settled for a ground out.Comment -
Record: 7-4-1 [+2.25]Comment -
May 4th: Nationals P Stephen Strasburg Total Ks Over 6 [-115]
Going with the high K rate for the pitcher here with Strasburg netting 9.56 Ks per 9 IP to rank 11th in MLB. He faces the Phillies who are 8th lowest in the Majors offensively with their own K rate. Strasburg is coming off another dominant start, 9 Ks in 7 IP against the Dodgers who rank right around the Phils in K rate. Strasburg has now whiffed at least six batters in three of his last four starts and he has 5 Ks or better in every start this season. He's also gone at least 6 IP in every start and 7 in two of five.
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Looked like Strasburg was going to roll up a lot of Ks. 3 in the 1st 2 IP and then it dried up. Only 4 and he got lifted in the 6th for a pinch hitter. Doh.Comment -
Record: 7-5-1 [+1.10]
May 5th: Tigers P Max Scherzer Total Ks Over 4.5 [-115]
This will require a bit of faith, but Scherzer gets a team in the White Sox that he has dominated over the past two years that ranks in the Top 5 in K rate. Scherzer has had trouble with walks and wildness this season which has led to just three starts out of five where he has gone through 5 innings. One of those was an eleven strikeout performance against this White Sox club. He has gone five straight starts against them dating back to last season with at least 6 Ks. He has at least looked a bit more like the pitcher he was in 2011 with 3 ER or less allowed in three of his last four starts. Detroit says they have ID'ed a flaw in his delivery, so let's see if that helps yield a more effective Scherzer today. When he can go deeper into games, this would be a no brainer with the guy still averaging a K per inning.Comment -
4th inning and we're home with a W. I really wanted to pound this one because it was set so low, but stayed to the one unit rule. If Scherzer hadn't been so terrible early this season, this probably easily would have been at 5.5. But hey, thanks to Max for that!Comment -
Record: 8-5-1 [+1.10]
May 6th: Rangers P Yu Darvish Total Ks Over 6 [-120]
Going to put a little trust in Darvish as he has shown the ability in his last two starts to cut down on walks and get deep into games. He's now in the Top 20 in K rate for pitchers at 9 Ks per 9 IP. The Indians are one of the Top 3 teams least likely to whiff, but in looking back when they have faced the top tier K rate pitchers like Haren, Weaver and Felix Hernandez - they do whiff if the pitchers have their good stuff. Darvish has 19 Ks over his last two starts, going 7+ innings in both. I think that is the key for him today. If he can get closer to 7 IP or better rather than 6 IP or less .. this should rank a good shot.Comment -
Easy one with 11 Ks in 6 IP. I'm going to try to build a list of "auto plays" for either pitchers w/ high K rate who should almost always be used with this prop and/or teams that you can go against when a decent K-rate pitcher is up against them. Of course, this only applies to OVERs.
Record: 9-5-1 [+2.10]Comment -
May 7th: Rangers P Matt Harrison Total Ks Under 4 [-125]
First dip into the UNDER pool, bring your floaties! Harrison has been getting ripped apart in his last two starts, giving up 14 ER in 8.1 IP. He has only topped 4 Ks once this season in five starts and finished with less than 4 Ks in three of five. Baltimore is hitting lefties to the tune of .273 this season, so Harrison will have to be sharp to not get lit up again. They reportedly found a flaw in his delivery that they blame for his last two poor outings. He is 3-0 in four career starts vs. BAL, but has just 11 Ks in 25 IP. In two starts last year against the O's, he had 3 Ks in 7 IP and 5 Ks in 6 IP. Baltimore does rank 12th in K rate, but generally have kept their Ks down against pitchers who don't have strike out stuff.Comment -
Was a little anxious after he had 3 Ks in the 4th inning, but success in the end. 3 Ks and Harrison finishes after 7. Unders always seem like an ordeal!
Record: 10-5-1 [+3.10]Comment -
May 7th: Padres P Edison Volquez Total Ks Over 5 [+105]
Volquez ranks in the Top 40 in K rate with 8 per 9 IP. He has whiffed at least 5 in four of his six starts. He has had at least 5 Ks in four of his five starts @ PETCO where he is just under a K per inning pitched. Colorado ranks inside the Top 10 as far as least likely to K, but they have struck out when presented with pitchers with K stuff.Comment -
No way Volquez even sniffs a push. Guy is behind on every batter. Gave up a dong to the pitcher. Be surprised if he lasts into the 6th and gets maybe 3 Ks.Comment -
Wel fork me baby. Struck out the side in the 5th and we've got our push. 6th is probably his last inning with 86 pitches already. Bottom of the order, may pull this shit out yet.Comment -
Record: 10-5-2 [+3.10]
May 8th: Indians P Justin Masterson Total Ks Over 4 [-115]
Going against the top K rate team in the White Sox who are amassing Ks against just about everyone. They now have 245 Ks as a team in 30 games for an average of about 8 Ks per game. Masterson isn't a huge K guy, but he whiffed six White Sox' batters last time he faced them. He has some decent K numbers against them with some of the Sox hitters have success against him, but of the outs recorded a good # via K. Ramirez, Rios, Dunn & Beckham look like the best donation candidates. Masterson has at least 5 Ks in his last two starts [One against Chicago]. I think the key is getting deep into the game, at least six innings.
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Record: 10-6-2 [+1.95]
Masterson had a couple shots in the 6th to get the 4th to get it to a push, but no dice. Still working out the kinks for this prop - but definitely appears that sticking to pitchers who have the high K rate is a better option than going against teams with a high K rate and a questionable K rate pitcher.Comment -
May 9th: Padres P Anthony Bass Total Ks Over 5 [-130]
Bass has quietly moved up the charts into the Top 10 in K rate at 9.18 Ks per 9 IP. Bass has at least 5 Ks in each of his five starts this season with seven or better in four straight. That includes a 7K performances against the Rockies back on April 17th @ Coors Field. At PETCO, he has 19 Ks in 16.1 IP pitched in his starts. Colorado ranks 7th least likely to K, but given Bass' solid K rate, this seems a good shot to at least push if he can go at least six.Comment -
Fawk. Bass absolutely fell apart in the 6th inning. Had 4 Ks. Error started things and then he just unwound and couldn't get out of the damn inning. They wouldn't even let him try to finish against the pitcher. Meh.Comment -
See if we can get back on track.
May 9th: Pirates P Erik Bedard Total Ks Over 5.5 [-120]
Bedard has been on a K assault in his last three starts with 27 Ks in his last 17 IP. That has moved Bedard into the #7 spot for best K rate among pitchers @ 9.79 per 9 IP. The Nationals rank 10th in K rate by MLB lineups and were mystified by A.J. Burnett last night who struck out ten. What has made Bedard awesome for this prop is that even though he has not been efficient with his pitches - making it past the 5th inning in just two of six starts - has has still been able to rack up the Ks. It would obviously help if he could make it deeper into the game and he might with the Nats struggling @ .210 against southpaws.Comment -
Wow. If that ain't shit luck, don't know what is. Bedard out of the game in the 2nd I guess with an injury or something. FML. Great way to go into the red.
Record: 10-8-2 [-0.55]Comment -
May 10th: Tigers P Max Scherzer Total Ks Over 5.5 [-115]
This is another team Scherzer has dominated. 22 Ks in just 10.1 IP for an insane K rate. One start against Oakland last year, 8 Ks in 5 IP. He's coming off that solid 9 K outing against the White Sox. The A's rank 7th in K rate with their lineup, so if Scherzer can establish himself early as he did against Chicago .. the Ks should come. The usual, feel like 6 IP will get it done, but even 5+ could do it depending on how his stuff is tonight.Comment -
Back on track. 8 Ks/6 IP.
Record: 11-8-2 [+0.45]Comment -
May 11th: Cubs P Matt Garza Total Ks Over 5.5 [-130]
A good combo to go with here as Garza ranks 10th in K rate among pitchers and the Brewers are the 4th most strikeout prone team in MLB. Garza has faced them once already and whiffed 9 over 8.2 IP back in April. He comes in off a dominant 10 K performance @ Philadelphia his last time out. He has gone at least 6 IP in four of his five starts and 7 or better in three of those. I think if Garza can get through 6 or better, this should have a real good shot.Comment -
Garza way too wild tonight. 4 walks in less than 5 IP/3 Ks. Not likely to make it past the 6th if he even gets that far.Comment -
Record: 11-9-2 [-0.85]
May 12th: Brewers P Shaun Marcum Total Ks Over 5 [-120]
Marcum is sitting inside the Top 40 pitchers according to his K rate with just over 8 per 9 IP. Marcum had a string of five starts with at least 5 Ks broken up last time against the Giants. Not a sin as the Giants rank as one of the least strikeout prone squads in MLB. Marcum K'ed six Cubs in a 6 IP performance earlier this year and is 3-0 against them in his Milwaukee career with 17 Ks in 20 IP. Several Cubs struggle against him: DeJesus 1/19, 5 Ks. Castro 1/10 3 Ks. LaHair 1/7, 4 Ks. The Cubs are middle of the pack in K rate offensively @ #18. Marcum has gone at least 6 IP in five of six starts and that would be a good place to start to try and cash this one.
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Marcum, 7 IP/6 Ks.
May 12th: Astros P J.A. Happ Total Ks Over 4.5 [-130]
One of the names you would not expect to see high up the K rate list for pitchers is Happ, but he currently ranks 19th with 8.91 Ks per 9 IP. Happ goes against the Pirates who stand tied for 8th in K rate. Happ has K-ed five or better in four of his six starts. Efficiency is his X-factor. When he has walked three or fewer this season, he has struck out five in each of those four starts. He has gone at least 5 IP in each start and has been amazing on the road with 16 Ks in 11 IP. Against the Buccos in 2011, Happ had four starts with the last three seeing him whiff at least six batters. Only McCutchen has really touched him up among the Pittsburgh regulars, but even then he was K'ed four times in 22 ABs. Tabata, McKenry and Walker look like good donation victims tonight.Comment -
Well Happ screwed the pooch. Done after 5 IP with 4 Ks. Had two guys in the 4th down in the count with two strikes and did not finish them off.Comment -
Record: 12-10-2 [-1.15]
May 13th: Phillies P Cole Hamels Total Ks Over 6 [-130]
One that meets both the criteria we like to see. Hamels ranks 8th in K rate at 9.81 per 9 IP, while the Padres sit 2nd in K rate for MLB offenses. Interestingly here, the only start of six where Hamels has not whiffed at least six was against the Padres @ PETCO back in April. Outside of that though, Hamels has been a K machine. This will be his first home start since April 15th and perhaps that will kick the Ks in against San Diego. Hamels has K'ed 19 in 12.1 IP @ home this season. Hamels had 18 Ks in two starts against San Diego last year, so I think his earlier low K game against them was an out of the ordinary occurrence and he should get back down to business today.
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Another pisser here. 5 Ks in 7 IP. Likely done now. Again multiple chances in the last couple innings to put up Ks with a lot of batters to two strike counts and behind in the count and doesn't get it done. This is a team Hamels should have picked apart for more Ks.Comment -
Up & down lately. Back up today?
Record: 12-11-2 [-2.45]
May 14th: Marlins P Anibal Sanchez Total Ks Over 6 [-130]Another good match and match on K rate for pitchers and lineups in this one. Sanchez ranks 5th in K rate among pitchers at 10.26 per 9 IP. The Pirates rank 8th in K rate for lineups with 271 Ks this season. Sanchez has topped six Ks in four of his last five starts and has an impressive 21 Ks in 14 IP at home this season.Comment -
Record: 12-12-2 [-3.75]
Another disappointment. Sanchez only 5 Ks. Back on the horse though with two solid match-ups to start.
May 15th
Nationals P Stephen Strasburg Total Ks Over 6.5 [-140]
#3 K-rated lineup with San Diego. #3 K-rated pitcher with Strasburg netting 10.43 Ks per 9 IP. After a dip against Philadelphia, Straburg came back with a vengeance with 13 Ks against Pittsburgh in 6 IP. He already has three starts with 9 Ks or more out of seven overall.
Tigers P Max Scherzer Total Ks Over 6.5?
No number set yet for Scherzer, but I would guess @ 6.5 and that feels good here. Scherzer has already mowed down 20 White Sox' batters in 13 IP this year. The Sox rank 2nd in K-rate, while Scherzer sits 2nd @ 10.75 Ks per 9 IP. He also has three games of 9 or more Ks in 2012 with two straight of 9 each. He whiffed 11 and 9 in his two starts vs. Chicago this season.Comment -
No bet on Scherzer as they never set a #. Maybe well enough since he got roughed up in the 1st. Wow. If you can't see the slump now, jeeze. Strasburg only goes four against the Padres. Yikes.Comment