2012 Picks

No coincidences · 07-15-12, 03:47 PM

Originally posted by italianbandit

Keep grinding and looking for value. Nice roll.

Thanks IB. Definitely much better than the -37+ units I was before the first pitch of the All-Star game.

I have to stay patient, though -- I tend to get on a hot streak and start betting every game on the board. Easier said than done for me, though -- I'm an action junkie.

lunchbawks · 07-15-12, 03:52 PM

whats the play tonight nocoin?

No coincidences · 07-15-12, 03:54 PM

Originally posted by lunchbawks

whats the play tonight nocoin?

I don't see anything worth playing at the moment lunch. Haven't looked very closely though.

No coincidences · 07-15-12, 05:54 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

2-1, +3U on early plays
289-302, -20.16U thread

4-1, +5U today
291-302, -18.6U thread
11-2, +18.54U since the Boston disaster

EXhoosier10 · 07-15-12, 07:12 PM

Nice run the last few days, NC. After the Cliff Lee 10u debacle in June, I started looking into O/U's (never really played them as I never tested my system with totals) and have been on a tear. Up 47u on O/U's over the 50 bets (36W - 13L).

I need to wait on umps, but Cle@TB u8.5 and STL@Mil u8.5 will most likely be plays for tomorrow if interested in checking them out.

No coincidences · 07-15-12, 07:25 PM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

Nice run the last few days, NC. After the Cliff Lee 10u debacle in June, I started looking into O/U's (never really played them as I never tested my system with totals) and have been on a tear. Up 47u on O/U's over the 50 bets (36W - 13L).

I need to wait on umps, but Cle@TB u8.5 and STL@Mil u8.5 will most likely be plays for tomorrow if interested in checking them out.

Good to hear Ex. Don't be a stranger pal.

EXhoosier10 · 07-15-12, 08:07 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Good to hear Ex. Don't be a stranger pal.

Keep up the good work. No doubt you end up at +50u come September. Just curious, do you use 0.5% per unit? I know Dex uses that and a few others I've seen use 1%. I'm guessing if you're throwing out the occasional 10u plays that 1%/unit is the absolute max you could logically use.

No coincidences · 07-15-12, 09:07 PM

StL +100 live (1U to win 1)

No coincidences · 07-15-12, 09:09 PM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

Keep up the good work. No doubt you end up at +50u come September. Just curious, do you use 0.5% per unit? I know Dex uses that and a few others I've seen use 1%. I'm guessing if you're throwing out the occasional 10u plays that 1%/unit is the absolute max you could logically use.

I can only hope/wish I'll have it turned around that much.

Your under here is looking good Ex.

Yes, I'm at .5% per unit. My bankroll for gambling is typically around 4-5 grand.

EXhoosier10 · 07-15-12, 09:56 PM

I only ask because I'm starting to think that I won't make as much $$ this year as I initially thought I would. my bankroll is only 7.5% self-financed and the other 5k came from friends with agreed on terms being to split profits more or less 47/53 (and I cover max 20% of losses).

I need to ask LTA should he come back and LTP and get some more opinions, but I'm curious to see if anyone thinks that extending to 1.5% as a base and limiting big plays to 4-5% would be manageable over a full season (Averaged only 3 plays a day over the past two years, so I'm not playing a ridiculous amount of games).

Assuming I finish in the green again this year, I expect that I'll be able to push that split even a little further in my favor and would love to not have to self-finance much next year as well.

No coincidences · 07-15-12, 09:58 PM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

I'm curious to see if anyone thinks that extending to 1.5% as a base and limiting big plays to 4-5% would be manageable over a full season (Averaged only 3 plays a day over the past two years, so I'm not playing a ridiculous amount of games).

In baseball? It's possible I suppose, but man there are some weird beats out there over the course of a year.

EXhoosier10 · 07-15-12, 10:13 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

In baseball? It's possible I suppose, but man there are some weird beats out there over the course of a year.

ya, I only bet baseball. I may just bump it up as the season goes like I have done this year and hope for a good few months of summer, idk.

Random question that you probably don't have an answer for, but I'll ask anyway... My brother just moved to Australia for the next 2 years. Is there any chance I could get away with opening up an account under his name at but logging in and betting from America? I guess the sportsbook forum will probably be a good spot for this question

Vinnie Paz · 07-15-12, 10:15 PM

Im pretty sure they cab tell from your ip youre not actually in australia.

Dexter · 07-15-12, 10:22 PM

has dusty ever won a ring? (player or manager)?

No coincidences · 07-15-12, 10:24 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

has dusty ever won a ring? (player or manager)?

Not that I know of. He's the true definition of mediocrity.

Inkwell77 · 07-15-12, 10:32 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Not that I know of. He's the true definition of mediocrity.

Hey NoCoin I tried to send you a message but you can't get em or something,

Do you know of any place which stores past Glantz-Culver lines?
I searched google but can't really find anything good, just random dates with the lines for that particular day.

No coincidences · 07-16-12, 12:05 AM

Monday's leans:

CLE +120
COL -120
SEA +104
SD -118

Possibly Detroit, Milwaukee and Toronto as well.

No coincidences · 07-16-12, 12:05 AM

Originally posted by Inkwell77

Hey NoCoin I tried to send you a message but you can't get em or something,

Do you know of any place which stores past Glantz-Culver lines?
I searched google but can't really find anything good, just random dates with the lines for that particular day.

No I don't Ink. Sorry.

I'll look for you and see what I can find out.

borednaz · 07-16-12, 12:12 AM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

ya, I only bet baseball. I may just bump it up as the season goes like I have done this year and hope for a good few months of summer, idk.

Random question that you probably don't have an answer for, but I'll ask anyway... My brother just moved to Australia for the next 2 years. Is there any chance I could get away with opening up an account under his name at but logging in and betting from America? I guess the sportsbook forum will probably be a good spot for this question

There is a piece of software called PCAnywhere (Also a lot of variants like it) That would allow you to log directly into your bro's pc's with full control of them. So if he was ok with that you could log into his pc & then using his IP go to the book to make bets. It's really not hard to setup at all

pacocn · 07-16-12, 12:13 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

has dusty ever won a ring? (player or manager)?

Dex,
Dusty won a world series in 1981, as a player for the L.A. Dodgers, He also took the Giants to the World Series as a manager, however they lost to the Angels in 7 games, and
was named manager of the year in 1993, 1997, and 2001.

No coincidences · 07-16-12, 11:27 AM

Missed the good number on the Tribe, but I'll probably still play them anyway. Hoping for a bounceback at some point so that I can at least get +115.

Will likely be on Seattle, Milwaukee and Colorado for sure.

Arizona kind of intrigues me, but their bats are stone cold.

So tempted to fade Hughes, even though he has a penchant for winning at home despite pitching like shit.

Still seems like SD is favored at home for a reason -- much like Colorado vs. Pittsburgh -- but I'll likely pass there.

EXhoosier10 · 07-16-12, 05:26 PM

Bill Miller behind the plate in TB.
Biggest play of the year at 5u on the under 8.5. Wish me luck NC

No coincidences · 07-16-12, 05:28 PM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/umpires/2012/umpire8403.html.
Biggest play of the year at 5u on the under 8.5. Wish me luck NC

Wow -- good luck Ex. I'm still feeling Cleveland for a side there.

EXhoosier10 · 07-16-12, 05:38 PM

Wouldn't mind a 4-0 cleveland win. Have 2u on the tribe at +128 as well. I fell for the trap and laid down 1u on the astros. Their bats suck, but I'm hoping that being in SD, it doesn't matter and it'll be low scoring anyway.

Waiting for the ump in Milwaukee before I decide on the under there. plenty of under umps still out there that could make it a 3.5u play. Currently sitting at 2u

No coincidences · 07-16-12, 05:59 PM

CLE +112 (3U to win 3.36)
ARI +113 (2U to win 2.26)
COL -113 (2.26U to win 2)

No coincidences · 07-16-12, 06:05 PM

TOR +1.5 -120 (1.2U to win 1)

No coincidences · 07-16-12, 07:05 PM

Like Seattle and Milwaukee, but I'll pass on those.

No coincidences · 07-16-12, 08:12 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Like Seattle and Milwaukee, but I'll pass on those.

Nothing more frustrating than that.

Pauulzcappin · 07-16-12, 08:15 PM

Your TOR bet is golden, No Coin. I'm on Yanks -1.5.

lunchbawks · 07-16-12, 08:16 PM

imagine if u actually played the teams u thought would win

No coincidences · 07-17-12, 12:29 AM

3-1, +6.62U tonight
294-304, -12.98U thread

No coincidences · 07-17-12, 12:35 AM

Can't say anything's got me too hyped up yet for Tuesday:

Leans....

LAA +113
ARI +155
CLE +135
StL -105
COL -120
SD -122
OAK +113

No coincidences · 07-17-12, 12:43 AM

Nice hit on those unders Ex. Man, you're on fire.

EXhoosier10 · 07-17-12, 07:31 AM

Thanks, NC. I can say the same about you as well. 14-3 +25u is a great run.

I agree with you that today's card doesn't look terribly appealing. I'm sure I'll find some totals to play though.

edit --- only totals I'm considering are Sea @ KC over, which is off the board, + Atlanta and Washington, which both have yet to have umps posted. Lets see if I can get work done today with no 'capping to do

bballs84 · 07-17-12, 09:35 AM

Great job No Coin keep steam rolling buddy