EP36's Twin Killing

[EaglesPhan36]

April 18th: White Sox P Jake Peavy Total Ks Over 5 [-140]
Orioles are the 3rd most strikeout prone team in MLB. They have 16 combined whiffs through the 1st two games of this series. Peavy has struck out at least five batters in both starts and is off a dominant eight strikeout performance against the Tigers last time out.

[EaglesPhan36]

7ks in 5 IP, EZ PZ.

[EaglesPhan36]

Overall Record: 12-17 [-5.23]
Series Bets: 2-2 [+0.35]

Damn Phillies. Masterful pitching performance from Cliff Lee wasted. Matt Cain equally great.

[EaglesPhan36]

Cubs P Jeff Samardzija Total Ks Over 4.5 (-105)

[EaglesPhan36]

Well Samardzija was terrible today and couldn't make it out of the 4th. Going with my first impression on games as those seem to be the ones that have hit the last week - that I talked myself out of.

April 19th: Twins-Yankees Over 9.5 [-105]Swarzak v. Hughes. After a good opening start, Swarzak was hit pretty hard by Texas in his last start. He gave up four runs on nine hits in 7 IP. Hughes has been awful with his control so far which has kept him from going deep in any of his starts. It's not so much that he's walking people, but he's been using a lot of pitches when he does get outs. He's thrown 183 pitches in his two starts and failed to get out of the 5th inning in either start. This series has been offensive from Game 1 with double digit run totals in all three games. NYY have given up at least five runs in four of their last five, while MIN has now given up at least four runs in eight of their last nine.

[EaglesPhan36]

Rare triple play today. But I really liked this one.

April 19th: Braves Team Total Over 4.5 [-135]
Collmenter may have owned Atlanta last year, but he also was very good against San Francisco and Colorado who both bashed him this season. His poor Spring has carried over and he runs into a hot Atlanta club. The Braves have now scored at least five runs in seven of their last ten overall. Collmenter has given up five ERs in each of his starts. Maybe the Braves incite a turnaround, but go with the streak of poor pitching + hot bats on the other side.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well that worked out well. 2-1 today. Going to try to go more with the one that stands out to me right away and not spend too much time dissecting and talking myself off plays. Definitely part of my problem here early.

Overall Record: 14-18 [-4.28]
Series Bets: 2-2 [+0.35]

[EaglesPhan36]

April 20th: Marlins-Nationals (Score in the 1st Inning) YES [-115]

[EaglesPhan36]

Overall Record: 14-19 [-5.43]
Series Bets: 2-2 [+0.35]

April 21st: Reds Team Total Over 4 [-125]
Maholm has been terrible so far with six ER allowed in both his starts for the Cubs this season. His Wrigley Field ERA is 5.96 for his career. Cincy's offense has been below snuff so far, but they may have found a little footing with 15 runs in their last two games. Cubs have given up at least five runs in seven straight.

[EaglesPhan36]

Can't catch a break, but I keep grinding. Been trying to find more parlays to try.

April 21st: [Parlay] Dodgers + Phillies [+140]

[EaglesPhan36]

Latest from the Zero Luck Department, Took Pirates ML tonight but my book had Correia as the starter, checked both listed starters. No Action. PIT wins w/Burnett.


Oh yeah and Halladay gives up two whole runs and PHI can't score. Parlay gonna fail. FML.

[EaglesPhan36]

Overall Record: 14-21 [-7.68]
Series Bets: 2-2 [+0.35]

April 22nd: Twins-Rays Over 8.5 [-105]

Plodding along. Trying to stick to the first one that passes the eye test. This is it for me. Liriano has been shelled in all three starts and has very mediocre #s against the Rays. Niemann has been solid, but is not stretched out enough to go much beyond 5-6 innings. That means getting into a very giving Rays bullpen that should help this have a chance. Rays are 9 of 14 OVERs this season.

[EaglesPhan36]

Another Fail. 6-2 final.

[EaglesPhan36]

Overall Record: 14-22 [-8.73]
Series Bets: 2-2 [+0.35]

April 23rd: Giants P Tim Lincecum Total Ks Over 6.5 [-115]
With the exception of the Rockies start where he was simply blasted from the first pitch, Lincecum's biggest problem has been the 1st inning. He has given up nine runs in the 1st inning in three starts. He has retained a good K/BB ratio at 16/5. He has solid #s against the Mets, especially dominant against David Wright. Vogelsong whiffed eight Mets in the last game between these two, so there is strikeout potential even though the Mets rank about middle of the pack as far as Ks go. Lincecum fanned 18 Mets in two starts last season in 13 IP. If he can start stronger in the 1st inning to allow himself to go deeper in the start, I think he can surpass this number.

[EaglesPhan36]

Holy Shit ... a winner.

[EaglesPhan36]

White Sox P Jake Peavy Total Ks Over 5.5 (+100)

Peavy has eight Ks in successive starts. Oakland is currently in the top 8 in number of strikeouts by their offense.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well split those two. Cursed is all I can say. Peavy had 5Ks through 5 IP. Went the distance and did not get another K the rest of the way. I guess breaking even is a start in maybe turning things around, but damn.

Overall Record: 15-23 [-8.73]
Series Bets: 2-2 [+0.35]

[EaglesPhan36]

April 24th: Rays Team Total Over 4 [-115]
Ervin Santana has been awful, allowing five runs or more in each of his three starts. Tampa has scored at least four runs in seven of their last ten and five straight. David Price has also been the recipient of some great run support - albeit with one poor game, an average of 7.3 runs per start w/ team totals of 12, 2 & 8.

[EaglesPhan36]

Let's see if we can get two.

April 24th: Nationals P Gio Gonzalez Total Ks Over 6.5 [-130]
Padres rank 4th in MLB for total number of strikeouts. Gonzalez has struck out 6,7 & 8 batters in his three starts. The six Ks might have been most impressive as it came against the Cubs in a short outing. If he can go 6-7 IP, this should have a good shot.

[EaglesPhan36]

Going to be another close fail on the K prop. Gio got two in the 6th to get to 6. He's about to get lifted though for a pinch hitter because the Nats have a shot to score. Needed them to go down in order to get him out there for the 7th. Fudddd.

[EaglesPhan36]

Overall Record: 16-24 [-9.03]
Series Bets: 2-2 [+0.35]

Think I may stop if I win my 1st play of a particular day for a little bit to get out of the red.

[EaglesPhan36]

April 25th: White Sox-A's Under 7 [+100]
Sale v. Parker. A's flat out have not hit lefties well @ .192. Parker is making his season debut, but not his MLB debut which came last year against LA and was solid. He went 5.2 IP and did not give up a run. Both teams have been solid UNDERs teams to start the year with the ChiSox cashing that way in 11 of 16 and Oakland in 14 of 19.

[EaglesPhan36]

April 25th: Yankees-Rangers Over 10.5 [-110]
Gas can Phil Hughes against Scott Feldman who has surprisingly decent #s vs. NYY. It's his 1st start of the season though after opening in the bullpen. Hot temps in the DFW-area today and the Right Field Wind Tunnel is in effect today with a South Wind @ 20 mph = $ on the OVER.

[EaglesPhan36]

You've got be ******* kidding me. White Sox-A's goes over in the 14th inning. Baseball Gods hate me.

[EaglesPhan36]

April 25th: Yankees-Rangers Over 10.5 [-110]
Gas can Phil Hughes against Scott Feldman who has surprisingly decent #s vs. NYY. It's his 1st start of the season though after opening in the bullpen. Hot temps in the DFW-area today and the Right Field Wind Tunnel is in effect today with a South Wind @ 20 mph = $ on the OVER.

Got this @ +100 instead.

[EaglesPhan36]

1st the 14th inning bone for an under and now gonna fall a run short on this over after a ton of RISP. Just not my year in baseball.

[EaglesPhan36]

Overall Record: 16-26 [-11.03]
Series Bets: 2-2 [+0.35]

Either digging out some today or further burying myself in baseball. Fun times.

April 26th: [PARLAY] Cleveland ML + Detroit ML [+150]
Two good match-ups here, I believe. Mendoza v. Tomlin in Cleveland. KC broken their lengthy losing streak yesterday, but Mendoza could put them right back in the "L" column. Mendoza has been beat up for nine earned runs in his last two starts and 13 runs overall in that stretch. KC is 0-3 in his starts. Tomlin comes in off his best start, 8 IP and 1 ER against Seattle. KC did get to him for four ER in 3.2 IP earlier this season. That was his first blemish against KC. He's now 4-1 in seven career appearances, six starts with a 4.29 ERA. Porcello for DET, trying to bounce back from getting pounded by Texas. Seattle should be a good elixir as he stands 3-1 with a 3.16 ERA against them in five starts. He was very good in two starts prior to the debacle against Texas. Noesi has been terrible for Seattle in two of three starts. Pounded for six ERs in 1.1 IP against the White Sox last time. His best start was against the offensively challenged A's. Detroit needs this to avoid a surprising sweep.

[EaglesPhan36]

Mother f-ing Slumpzilla. Fade it.

April 26th: Toronto Team Total Over 4.5 [-120]
Blue Jays get a go at Matusz. Matusz has lost 12 straight starts dating back to last year in which eleven of the 12 opponents wound up scoring more than four runs by game's end. Matusz has given up at least four earned runs in each of his three starts this season, including one against Toronto. Jays wound up scoring nine in that one. They'll look to bust out from a slump of their own, scoring just one run in their last two games.

[EaglesPhan36]

Death to this thread. After almost a month, I have found the one niche I think I have working for this season and that is the Strikeout Prop. 4-4 in this thread on those, but won four of the last six. Finding my specialty and sticking to it seems to have worked wonders in other sports, so I am gonna roll with this for the remainder of the season.

The K Zone coming later today. Hopefully, it can be more profitable than this dump where I failed miserably.

[EXhoosier10]

haha I had the same issue up until this week when things finally started to click for me again. Glad to see you've found something that works though

[EaglesPhan36]

Thought long and hard during the past few weeks on how I wanted to play baseball this season. It's probably in my estimation one of the hardest sports to stay stout in your money management. I've dubbed this thread Twin Killing because the goal is two picks each night MAX, beat the books and make that Twin Killing as much as possible a.k.a. going 2-0. Might be a side. Might be a total. Might be a team total. Might be a prop. But just two picks total per night to minimize losses and hopefully maximize profits. I don't claim to be an expert, just providing my insight for what its worth.

No full game picks for Seattle-Oakland, but wanted to post up tonight because I have one future I am putting on the books tonight.

Future #1: Seattle's Ichiro Suzuki Total RBI's [2012] Over 50.5 [-115]
Ichiro must play 130 games for this to have action. Given his sturdy career, I'd expect that to not be a concern despite his age [38]. So why would you like taking an aging Ichiro to get his most RBIs in the past three years? #1, a switch to the #3 spot in the batting order. Seattle needed more production and they chose to stick Ichiro there. Last year. Smoak and Olivo were the top run producers with 55 and 62 RBIs for an anemic offense. Is it going to be that much better in 2012? Not expecting a big bump, but Dustin Ackley will be in the lineup from Day 1. Last year in 90 games and occupying the three hole, he drove in 36 runs. With Figgins slotted as the leadoff man and Ackley 2nd, Ichiro should be seeing some base runners when he comes to the plate. He's already had one of his best springs with 8 RBI and has a career best two homers this Spring. That leads to #2, he's adjusted his swing to try to provide more power. He's not going to hit 20, but he's got the ability to hit 10-15 HRs I believe. If he stays healthy and Figgins and Ackley can do a half-way decent job of getting on-base, I think he's got a great chance to surpass this RBI mark.

Quit this thread for my team totals a long time ago, but just cashed one of the futures today ... ICHIRO! The trade to NY might have been the only thing that saved this from failing. RBI 51 came today on a HR.

Also need the Dodgers to get three more wins and I can cash that sucker too.

Attention Whore me.