EP36's Twin Killing

[EaglesPhan36]

Can't catch a win so far. Extremely slow start. Hopefully the SERIES play helps turn things around if the Cards can get one of the next two. I like this prop a lot tonight, maybe it will get me back into the win column.

April 10th: Red Sox-Blue Jays Total HRs Over 2.5 [-130]
Bard v. Drabek. Toronto got a couple looks at Bard in Spring Training which should give them a good read on the new Boston starter today. He gave up one HR in those two starts where he allowed eight runs total. Drabek got bashed by Boston as they touched him for five long balls in two starts last year - both at Rogers Centre. Gonzalez and Ortiz both took him deep twice. Boston accounted for five of the eight home runs Drabek gave up in 39.3 IP at home in 2011.

[EaglesPhan36]

April 10th-12th: [SERIES] Diamondbacks -130

Could not see a reason not to try Arizona in this series with San Diego. The pitching match-ups all appear to favor the D-backs somewhat. They open tonight with Cahill vs. Volquez. Volquez is 0-1 with a 5.19 ERA in three starts vs. Arizona. Cahill has no numbers against San Diego having played w/Oakland of course until this year. Volquez has good stuff, but so does Cahill. This appears pretty even. Game 2 is Joe Saunders and Cory Luebke. Saunders is 5-3 vs. SD with a 3.00 ERA. Arizona was 2-1 in three starts against San Diego w/Saunders on the hill. All three were @ PETCO. Luebke is 0-3 with a 5.50 ERA against Arizona. He was decent in three starts against Arizona last year, but found himself on the wrong end of the stick. He was roughed up by LA in his 1st start. You'd have to feel good if it comes down to Game 3 with Ian Kennedy against Anthony Bass. Kennedy is 5-0 in 7 starts vs. SD with a 2.01 ERA. Bass is scheduled for a spot start out of the bullpen. Arizona only won one of the three series in San Diego last year, but this set-up looks better with the pitching match-ups than any of those series. Both teams have been a little sluggish with the bats, but Arizona was able to be more consistent in their opening sweep of SF while SD dropped three of four to the Dodgers and gave up at least four runs in every game, five or more in three of those.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well can't pick my way out of a paper bag with the single games, but STL SERIES bet cashes and ARIZONA SERIES bet off to a solid start. Maybe that is my niche .... still early, but gotta find something that works.

Overall Record: 4-8 [-4.75]
Series Bets: 1-0 [+1.35]

[EaglesPhan36]

April 11th: Red Sox Team Total Over 4 [-115]
Romero has not fared well against Boston in his career with an ERA over 7. Ellsbury 10/25. Pedroia 9/23. Gonzalez 2/9 [1 HR]. Youkilis 8/20. Ortiz 10/29. Even Darnell McDonald is 5/14 against him. I see Boston scoring some runs today. Oh yeah, Romero is on my fantasy team = gasoline.

[EaglesPhan36]

Cold as fukk. Switched off Cards-Reds over for this loser. Terrible mojo.

[EaglesPhan36]

April 11th: Houston +106
Delgado vs. Wandy. Like this spot for the 'Stros. They got a good look at Delgado in his last Spring Training start and got to him for four earned runs in 4.2 IP. Wandy has good #s vs. ATL with a lifetime ERA of 3.25. The Astros won Wandy's lone home start vs. ATL last year and lost in extra innings in his other start on the road in ATL. Braves struggling vs. lefties in limited ABs @ .157.

[EaglesPhan36]

Overall Record: 4-10 [-6.90]
Series Bets: 1-0 [+1.35]

April 12th: Giants -120
I'm simply going with the better pitcher in Bumgarner over Moyer. Bumgarner has pitched well against the Rockies in his career with a 2.05 ERA, but just a 2-3 mark in seven starts. Still, Giants need a solid pitching effort and Bumgarner needs to set the tone. I think SF should be able to get to Moyer who doesn't have much experience - strange as that sounds - pitching @ Coors Field. Posey back in the lineup. SF needs this, so fade away!

[EaglesPhan36]

F-ing A Brian Wilson made that adventurous, but a W is a W at this point. Now need the D-Backs to finish off the series tonight and maybe gain some momentum this weekend.

[EaglesPhan36]

April 12th: Arizona P Ian Kennedy Total Ks Over 5.5 [-135]
I think this is a great number to hit the over. Kennedy has absolutely owned SD in his seven career starts with 59 Ks in 44.2 IP. Last season in three meetings, he struck out 11, 7 and 9 against the Padres. In three starts @ PETCO, Kennedy has whiffed 28 batters in 18 IP. He'll need to improve some on his opening start against the D-Backs, but if he goes 6-7 innings ... this should have a legit shot to cash.

[EaglesPhan36]

Big day finally. Swept the single game picks + picked up another series win with Arizona. Let's go Uncle Mo!

Overall Record: 7-10 [-3.90]
Series Bets: 2-0 [+2.35]

[EaglesPhan36]

April 13th-15th: [SERIES] Rays +125
Good place to try Tampa at Fenway Way with the Red Sox struggling, not to mention the Rays dominance over Boston in recent times. Tampa won four of the six series played between the two teams last season. The Rays are 12-5 @ Fenway from 2010-2011. Price opens the action today against Beckett. Price is 6-3 against Boston with a 3.16 ERA. At Fenway, he has been flat out nasty with a 1.75 ERA in four starts and a 3-0 mark. Beckett is 9-4 with a 2.94 ERA against the Rays. The opener could go either way. Game 2 is Hellickson v. Buchholz. Hellickson is 2-1 with a 4.21 ERA against Boston. 2-0 @ Fenway. Buccholz has been dominant vs. TB with a 4-2 mark and 1.81 ERA. Game 3 will pit Matt Moore against Felix Doubront. Moore has seen limited action vs. BOS and Doubront won a spot start against Tampa in 2010, but has only seen them in relief since. The Rays offense is clicking better right now, while Boston is struggling. Throw in two lefties [Price/Moore] to the mix as Boston is batting just .181 against lefties and I think the Rays have an edge. Both bullpens are having issues, so late inning leads may not be safe although if Tampa gets to the 9th with a lead - Rodney is much more secure right now over the Boston closing situation. I think the opener is huge here for Boston. They need a win badly to open the season at home. If the Rays win behind Price, this series could get ugly.

[EaglesPhan36]

April 13th: Yankees SS Derek Jeter Gets a Hit [-250]
The chalk won't be for everyone, but this looks solid. Jeter is hitting .447 lifetime against Ervin Santana [today's LAA starter]. In 12 career starts vs. NYY, Jeter has had at least one hit every single time. So far in 2012, he has a hit in five of six games. He is a career .312 hitter at Yankee Stadium. Yanks are also honoring Jorge Posada today, so "The Captain" should put forth something special today.

[EaglesPhan36]

Figures I am going to get the day he goes 0-fer. FML.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yessssss! Double for the Captain!

[EaglesPhan36]

Alright, waited for this to drop and it did enough to go at it.

April 13th: Pirates +1.5 [-140]
McDonald v. Cain. Pittsburgh has been involved in five one run games already this season, coming out with two one run wins and three one run losses. Three of San Francisco's six games have also seen a single run decide the fate of the game. Each of Cain's last three starts vs. PIT have been of the one run variety with SF winning two of those three.

[EaglesPhan36]

Booked the Buccos @ -135 for the above line.

[EaglesPhan36]

God the Pirates need some offensive help, well that and to face some shittier pitchers. Don't know if I have ever seen a team go through a tougher slate of pitchers outside of maybe 1-2 games so far.

[EaglesPhan36]

Overall Record: 8-11 [-4.25]
Series Bets: 2-0 [+2.35]

April 14th: [Parlay] Texas + St.Louis [+141]

[EaglesPhan36]

Got the parlay yesterday. Unfortunately the Red Sox bats woke up and crushed Tampa for the series loss.

Overall Record: 9-12 [-3.88]
Series Bets: 2-1 [+1.35]

April 15th: Nationals-Reds Total HRs Over 2 [-110]
Reds have had a hard time getting any thing going offensively and this series has been a grind, but the wind is whipping out to left field today. Leake has trouble with the long ball. He gave up a pair in his opening start and gave up two each in two starts vs. Washington in 2011. Detwiler goes for Washington. He doesn't have major home run problems, but does give them up on occassion. Getting Brandon Phillips back into the lineup should help feed the Reds today. Only Votto has homered against Detwiler of the current Reds squad.

[EaglesPhan36]

April 15th: Yankees Team Total Over 5 [-135]
Yanks get a crack at Jerome Williams who is making his 1st start after suffering through hamstring issues this Spring. Williams was a nice comeback story in 2011, but he has already admitted being nervous this evening and that's not what you want going into NY. NY had scored at least five in four straight games before CJ Wilson shut them down yesterday. Expect the offense to get rolling again.

[Sick_in_the_Head]

i got 5.5(even) on my book. Think I should take it?

[EaglesPhan36]

Has a chance but I dont mind laying the eztra juice in case they end on 5

[EaglesPhan36]

Overall Record: 10-13 [-3.98]
Series Bets: 2-1 [+1.35]

Well at least a little traction now with some wins. Hopefully this week, to .500. That's the goal.

[Sick_in_the_Head]

i took the 5.5. Thank God.

[EaglesPhan36]

April 16th: Rays-Red Sox Over 9 [-110]
Bard got hit pretty hard by Toronto and the Rays rake against lefties. Shields had two solid starts at Fenway last season, but his career ERA there is still bloated which shows how hard he has been hit at times.

[EaglesPhan36]

Lovely pitcher's duel. FML.

[EaglesPhan36]

Alright, going to make up for this morning's shite. Like this one quite a bit, so a two unit play on it.

April 16th: Nationals Team Total Over 4 [-130]
The Nats get a shot at Houston and Kyle Weiland who gave up four earned in five IP against the Braves in his season debut. He gave up two long balls which is a big point of today's wager as the wind is blasting out to left @ 20 mph with warm temperatures. The wind will switch to more of a Left-Center drive during the game. Washington scored four runs or better in their last two games of the Cincinnati series and have now tallied four runs or more in four games. Houston has given up four runs in seven of ten and five straight.

April 16th-18th: [SERIES] Phillies +110

Should be a delightful pitchers series in San Francisco. Opener pits Halladay against Lincecum. Hallday's career @s vs. SF are not great [7.23 ERA] in three starts, but he has been money this season with a 0.60 ERA in two starts while Lincecum is having velocity issues and getting lit up. Despite Doc's troubles vs. SF, edge in current form goes to Philadelphia for Game 1. Game 2, definitely an edge to the Giants with Bumgarner vs. Blanton. Blanton did pitch well vs. Miami, but Bumgarner is a tough lefty who has good success vs. Philadelphia. It could come down to the rubber game on Wednesday, a beauty with Cliff Lee against Matt Cain. Lee's #s vs. SF are ridiculous, a 0.82 ERA in four starts. Giants have not hit lefties at all either @ .182. Cain is 1-4 with a 4.17 ERA against the Phils, but comes in off a shutdown performance against Pittburgh where he allowed just one hit and whiffed eleven. Bullpens could loom large in this series at the end of games. Phils ERA is 2.45 in the pen. Giants, 4.79 and Wilson now out. If Halladay can shut it down tonight and allow the Phils to squeak out a win, I think they take this series. Pivotal game tonight.

[EaglesPhan36]

Nats do it up.


Overall Record: 11-14 [-3.08]
Series Bets: 2-1 [+1.35]

[EaglesPhan36]

April 17th: Astros-Nationals Over 6.5 [-115]
Rodriguez v. Gonzalez in the battle of the lefties. Both teams have respectable averages against southpaws with Houston @ .258 and Washington @ .262. Houston has surprisingly scored at least three runs in every game they have played this season. The 'Stros have also given up at least four runs in seven of ten and at least three runs in nine of ten. Nats offense has been pretty consistent with three runs or better in nine of eleven. Astros have been a somewhat shocking OVERs team so far, but nine of ten speaks volumes. Wind blowing out again, we'll see if that helps.

[EaglesPhan36]

Picked another pitcher's duel. Fawkin' A.

[csavoia]

Dude maybe just stick to basketball thats where you seem to have found your niche.. although the baseball season is early.. I do admire your thought process with all games you pick and you definitely know your stuff. I find that Basketball is your forte right now though, tennis and baseball struggling a bit.. just my opinion and not meaning to be derogatory at all.

[EaglesPhan36]

April 18th: Mets +112
Anti-Jurjjens right now. He's been poor to start the season and although he has great #s vs. the Mets, they lost two of his three starts against them in 2011. Dickey usually keeps his club in the game and he's been on so far. Of course the knuckler has to knuckle to have a shot, but gimme some Mets.

[onacloud]

On the Mets as well

[EaglesPhan36]

Sweet. Not overly concerned about starting slow. Like all sports, baseball is a grind. I find it usually slow capping every sport until you get better samples of form, etc. Rarely start off hot in any sport. Basketball and hockey where I have been on fairly good runs, it took me several weeks of picks to get above .500 and into the black. Hopefully baseball will come around. Series bets really are the ones I am becoming a fan of ... hopefully the Phillies take care of business later.

[EaglesPhan36]

Brutal game Mets. Onto the next one. Feel like 1-1 on a day would be like winning with how terrible these have been.