Front Page MLB Picks (Wed., Sep 17)

[Willie Bee]

St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds Under 9

Game Time: 09/17/2008 07:10 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Despite playing this one in a hitter's park, St. Louis' Todd Wellemeyer and Cincinnati's Aaron Harang will do their part to keep the scoring down when the Cards visit the Reds at Great American Ball Park.

Our Wednesday night MLB selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals and the Cincinnati Reds going under the total at 'under' the total at Great American Ball Park.

The Reds have had several pleasant surprises this season, but veteran righthander Aaron Harang has not been one of them. After three very strong years with this team from 2005-2007, Harang has had a season to forget in '08.

One of the big mysteries of this season is how could a guy with 26 starts, over 163 innings, 141 strikeouts, and 47 walks on a team that normally scores plenty of runs have only four victories to his credit midway through September? Those are quality numbers even if Harang's ERA is an ugly 4.96. But his biggest problem has clearly been a lack of run support.

In Harang's last 15 starts, dating all the way back to May 29, the Reds have scored more than four runs on only two occassions and they've only scored more than three in six of those games. Lately, especially, Harang has been a hard-luck starter, generally pitching well, but rarely catching a break. His last start pretty much sums up his season. He shut out the Diamondbacks in Arizona over seven strong innings but still lost the game by a score of 3-2.

The Cardinals' Todd Wellemeyer has quietly put together a very, very good season for St. Louis, and the fact that the Cards will almost certainly be watching the postseaon from home is no fault of his. Wellemeyer has been extremely strong away from Busch Stadium this year, posting a 2.87 road ERA. He is from nearby Louisville, Kentucky, and will have plenty of family and friends in the stands tonight. Take the Under.

Free Pick: Cardinals-Reds Under 9 (-115)

[Willie Bee]

SD Padres +150 to upset Rockies

Game Time: 09/17/2008 03:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Padres are batting .291 the last 10 games, while the Rockies are at .236 the same span. With Greer solid in his starts so far and Francis not having success vs. the Padres, dog San Diego.

It is obvious that the Colorado Rockies will not make another miracle World Series run this year, and their starter Jeff Francis has had trouble with their opponent today, the San Diego Padres, so it looks like the Pads hold some value at this nice price.

Now granted, Francis has actually pitcher very well lately with a 2.79 ERA in his last three starts. However, the Rockies went 0-3 in those starts, due mainly to an inept offense that is not getting any better. Colorado is batting just .236 as a team over the last10 games, and considering that the Rockies are just 4-9 the last 13 times that Francis has faced the Padres, we do not expect him to get enough run support today either.

Now young Josh Greer has given a fine account of himself in his first three major league starts for San Diego, allowing exactly two runs in each of those outings. He is coming off of his first career Quality Start, as he worked seven innings vs. the Giants, and he did face these Rockies in his major league debut, allowing five hits while posting five strikeouts in five innings.

Finally, the Padres have picked things up offensively lately after being dormant all year, as they are batting .291 as a team the last 10 games. Look for them to score enough runs to pull the upset.

Free Pick: Padres +150

[Willie Bee]

Take Texas Rangers -133 to cage the Detroit Tigers

Game Time: 09/17/2008 08:05 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | sportspic.com

The Tigers are simply playing out the string while the Rangers are still shooting at least for a .500 season. Take Texas on the moneyline Wednesday night vs. Detroit.

The Tigers have pretty much tossed in the towel and they want nothing more than this season to be done with. Expectations were high coming into the season as World Series was coming out of the mouths of many, but a slow start put an end to that fairly quickly.

Detroit has lost six straight games and the first two in this series to drop their recent road mark to 7-13 over the last 20 games. The pitching has been horrendous of late, allowing an average of 7.1 RPG over their last 19 games.

The Rangers, whose season is over as well, are not playing to end the year but playing to try and forge some momentum into next season. Texas is 8-5 over its last 13 games, including wins in five of their last seven at home. The Rangers are just two games under .500 on the season and the goal is to close at .500 or better. After dropping the first five games to Detroit this season, Texas has won the last three while averaging 8.3 RPG. They are 10-4 in their last 14 games against teams with a losing record.

Detroit sends Freddy Garcia to the mound who will be making his first major league start since June 8, 2007. The Tigers just signed him a month ago and both are looking into what he has to offer. He made one start in AAA-Toledo, lasting just three innings and one start in A-Lakeland, lasting just two innings. He is not going to go long in this game even if he is pitching well and that means the bullpen, which has a 6.99 ERA over the last 10 games, will be seeing a lot of action.

The Rangers counter with Dustin Nippert who has rebounded very well from a poor first outing with the club. He has allowed three runs or fewer over his last three outings and has a 0.75 ERA over his last two starts, allowing just one run in 12 innings of work. Most of his work has come out of the bullpen and he has a very solid 3.77 ERA at home in seven appearances, including two starts. This is his first ever appearance against the Tigers which is a big edge. Play Texas for 1½ units.

Free Pick: Rangers -133

[Willie Bee]

Todd Wellemeyer, St. Louis Cardinals -110 at Cincinnati Reds

Game Time: 09/17/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

Aaron Harang has either pitched poorly or not received any run support from the Reds this season. Side with the St. Louis Cardinals tonight on the road in Cincinnati.

The Cardinals and Reds meet in the Queen City in Game 2 of this three-game series this evening when Todd Wellemeyer matches serves with Aaron Harang.

For openers, Wellemeyer enters tonight's game with a solid 2.62 ERA on the road this season. In addition he's in strong KW form on the road with eight walks and 31 strikeouts in his last eight road efforts. He is also 3-2 with a 1.74 ERA in his MLB career during the month of September.

On the flip side, Harang owns a 5.27 ERA at home and is 5-10 at night with a 5.46 ERA this season. Back the better team and the better arm here tonight.

Free Pick: Cardinals -110

[Willie Bee]

Colorado Rockies -152 to extend San Diego Padres' woes

Game Time: 09/17/2008 03:05 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

Let's face it: Since losing that one-game playoff to the Rockies last year, the Padres have been going downhill. Cash Colorado this afternoon when they host San Diego.

The San Diego Padres lost another one last night and are now 2-6 in their last eight games. In their last 53 games vs. a left-handed starter, the Padres are 17-36.

San Diego is 3-9 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Padres are also 3-9 in their last 12 divisional games.

The Rockies are 5-2 in their last seven home games vs. a right-handed starter. Colorado is 5-2 in Jeff Francis' last seven home starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Rockies offense was a lost better last night and should be good enough to win this afternoon. Play on Colorado.

Free Pick: Rockies -152