CappinTerps MLB Thread 2012

[CappinTerp]

How do you see value in Mia +102 based on what you wrote?

That is the whole point.!! Vegas is not here to give us a free lunch.! Just like the Bond Market,Stock Market,ect.The gambling market is very efficient and the price on the game reflects that...........I hope this helps you.....................gl

[a4u2fear]

Mia. +102 5 UNITS - Let's get this straight. The Cards over the last 3 games have scored 30 runs and collected 41 hits.! Today they face the Marlins who are just 3-15 last 18 games. On the bump for Mia. is Ricky Nolasco who has a 8.81 ERA his last 3 starts and career vs ST.LOU. is 0-4 with a 6.62 ERA.! On the hill for the Cards is Jake Westbrook who has a 2.57 ERA and WHIP of 0.952 his last 3 outings. And career vs the fish has a 2.96 ERA and WHIP of 1.075 with a road ERA of 2.93 this season. The disparity between these two teams and pitchers is very,very large.............but to bet ST.LOU. one only has to lay -112.!!!!..................GL

Sharp side, hopefully the right side.

[2daBank]

That is the whole point.!! Vegas is not here to give us a free lunch.! Just like the Bond Market,Stock Market,ect.The gambling market is very efficient and the price on the game reflects that...........I hope this helps you.....................gl

think line reflects what a coinflip it is to cap Westbrook..especially given his history of being good on long rest then not so good on a reg 4 days (of which he is tonight)..im a sucker tho and love my cards so i played them at a super short price against hapless fish and gascan Nolasco....under was prob the real sharp side of this one with these gascan pitchers and way cards bats looked over weekend..at least one of us will cash

[CappinTerp]

think line reflects what a coinflip it is to cap Westbrook..especially given his history of being good on long rest then not so good on a reg 4 days (of which he is tonight)..im a sucker tho and love my cards so i played them at a super short price against hapless fish and gascan Nolasco....under was prob the real sharp side of this one with these gascan pitchers and way cards bats looked over weekend..at least one of us will cash

BOL 2daBank.!!

[befus]

BOL 2daBank.!!

Agree with both......I passed this one.

[a4u2fear]

Stupidly took the over in Miami too

[DaKing1515]

That is the whole point.!! Vegas is not here to give us a free lunch.! Just like the Bond Market,Stock Market,ect.The gambling market is very efficient and the price on the game reflects that...........I hope this helps you.....................gl

Right, so why did you bet either side? jw

[CappinTerp]

Right, so why did you bet either side? jw

Not sure how to explain,this could take a very long time depending on how long you have been betting. But in it's simplest form Vegas knows more than me and this price looked like a "setup" .!..................gl

[a4u2fear]

unbelievable, we sniff out the books, and still get "miami'd", ugh

[MK2004]

It was a bad day for all the teams.

[RyDogg]

Brutal beat Terp, hard to account for the 4 run Bell factor, that fat piece of shit...

[2daBank]

Not sure how to explain,this could take a very long time depending on how long you have been betting. But in it's simplest form Vegas knows more than me and this price looked like a "setup" .!..................gl

... hell you guys were right, cards looked dead most the night (I DEF GOT LUCKY)....they on a little heater tho and fish are the fish (find a way to lose)..i already got down on stl-106 for 2marro...-106? i dont care if they lose that all im paying to take cards against shitbag marlins? that new fukkin stadium was damn near empty, lol..

[DaKing1515]

Not sure how to explain,this could take a very long time depending on how long you have been betting. But in it's simplest form Vegas knows more than me and this price looked like a "setup" .!..................gl

Are you referring to the STL side? I was just saying that if it was seemingly a "setup" on both sides, i.e., they had it set it perfectly on both sides. I didn't see the value in betting MIA, they were certainly bigger dogs than the odds they were getting.

[CappinTerp]

Man that was one bad lost on the Mia. game.!! Sorry to the guys that tailed and congrats to those who like the Cards or who faded.! Thought I had that game capped just right but in baseball you never know. All in a bad day 1-3 for -9.00 units.! Time to move forward and get some winners.

MLB:90-91
YTD:+9.64

[befus]

Well Terp and others guess I am glad I passed as I would have had a heart attack either way. Definitely Miami was the right side, but as I always say a full half of games are decided by luck no matter how good a capper you are, and this was one of those. None of the factors which played out (Nolasco becoming Cy Young, Westy pitching really well again, Bell's melt down, all the walks and errors, giving up a run in the bottom of an extra inning game and winning) could really be handicapped.

DaKing-the point was that StL should have been about -140 on the road and they weren't. Vegas somehow has a way of setting numbers close to the reality and when this number came out so low there had to be a reason. It's like in football when an unranked team is favored over a ranked team.......you'd better pay attention because there may be a good reason other than balancing the book.

[CappinTerp]

Well Terp and others guess I am glad I passed as I would have had a heart attack either way. Definitely Miami was the right side, but as I always say a full half of games are decided by luck no matter how good a capper you are, and this was one of those. None of the factors which played out (Nolasco becoming Cy Young, Westy pitching really well again, Bell's melt down, all the walks and errors, giving up a run in the bottom of an extra inning game and winning) could really be handicapped.

DaKing-the point was that StL should have been about -140 on the road and they weren't. Vegas somehow has a way of setting numbers close to the reality and when this number came out so low there had to be a reason. It's like in football when an unranked team is favored over a ranked team.......you'd better pay attention because there may be a good reason other than balancing the book.

You hit the nail on the head befus I thought that game may have been set at -150,so yes vegas is uncanny setting prices to sway the public toward a side............Anyway your Cards are playing very well...............good luck.!

[CappinTerp]

pitt. +130 2 units

clev. Tt under 4 -120 2 units
colo. +125 1 unit..........................gl

[2daBank]

like rockies quite a bit as well CT, just got home, gonna go see what i can get on the rrl (hit it for +290 last night)...

GL with all your plays..

[hougigo]

I'm uneasy about the Rockies/Nats game.
I took the under... think it was 10 1/2

[CappinTerp]

Had Clev.TT UNDER 4 and they score 4 in the 9th.!! Cards on ,Mon.scored 4 in 9th.! Time to fade.?? Went 0-2-1 for -3.00 units.

MLB:90-93
YTD:+6.64

[CappinTerp]

Hey guys any thoughts on this NYY/CLEV - total of 9.5.?? I know the wind is blowing out to rt. but this total looks a little high.!..??

[CappinTerp]

LA Dodgers/San Fran - Under 7 1/2

What do you think? http://smrhandicapping.tumblr.com/

That is a great price you got ....have not looked at that game yet.....gl

[EXhoosier10]

Hey guys any thoughts on this NYY/CLEV - total of 9.5.?? I know the wind is blowing out to rt. but this total looks a little high.!..??

James Hoye has a historical tendency of unders, too. 13o-25u in '09, 9-25 in '10, 13-15 in '11, and 6-7 this year. The weird thing though is that he has had one of the smaller strike zones over that time as well, which you would think leads to overs. Cleveland has the 29th ranked offense v. lefties, but Ubaldo is a gas can. I think Cleveland TTu4 -120 might be worth a look

[CappinTerp]

cubs +105 2 units
minn. +163 2 units..................................g l

[southpaw74]

Unfortunately the Cubs and twins played like the cubs and twins today

[CappinTerp]

Unfortunately the Cubs and twins played like the cubs and twins today

Yes they did it was not even close however if I am going to loose a game I would rather be down 10-0 after 2 innings rather than loose the way Mia lost on Monday.

Today 0-2 for -4.00 units.! I don't like the way the games I have been picking are loosing the last few days.So I'am going to take off for a day or two.People who have followed the thread for the last few seasons know this is not uncommon for me. Good luck to all.!

MLB:90-95
YTD:+2.64 UNITS

[EXhoosier10]

Keep your chin up, terp. Tomorrow's card is small with a lot of lower tier pitchers; will be tough to 'cap anyway. Enjoy your Wednesday night and thursday.

[CappinTerp]

Hey guys hope all is well out there. I took two days off and hopefully get hot as this weather.!!


TOR/LAA - OVER 10-110 2 UNITS
PITT/ST.LOU - UNDER 9.5 -115 1 UNIT...........More to follow.................................. ....gl

[CappinTerp]

Clev. +115 2 units - This line looks low to me for Clev. just 6-16 vs lefties and are 1-6 last 7 games.Tomlin is 2-1 with a 5.06 ERA and WHIP of 1.500 career vs Balt. On the other side Eveland is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA and WHIP of just 1.167 .! This play would normally be a 3-5 unit play for me but since I just took two days off and the way I do things it is a 2 unit play................Good luck.!!

[CappinTerp]

LAD/METS - OVER 7 ?? What do you guys think...............looks too easy to go under the way the Dodgers are hitting.

[MK2004]

CappinTerp what you think about Seattle and Tampa Bay tonight?

[CappinTerp]

CappinTerp what you think about Seattle and Tampa Bay tonight?

May play both still capping.

[MK2004]

This is a team effort, and you are not along here buddy.

[MK2004]

Also, I used this website for a refrence guide on the bets http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/MLB.html. Just compare the stats for the 1pm games. Usually the teams with the highest bets lose.

[RyDogg]

Dodgers opened at +116, can get it at +144 now