Front Page MLB Picks (Tue., Sep 16)

Willie Bee · 09-16-08, 10:59 AM

Jamie Moyer, Philadelphia Phillies -128 at Atlanta Braves

Game Time: 09/16/2008 07:10 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | sportspic.com

Philadelphia is heating up at just the right time with the playoffs just around the corner. Play the Phillies on the road tonight when they take on the Atlanta Braves.

The Phillies have clawed their way back into the playoff picture both in the division as well as the Wild Card race. Philadelphia trails the Mets by just a half-game entering Tuesday and a weekend four-game sweep against the Brewers put the Phils in a first place tie with Milwaukee for the Wild Card spot.

The Phillies are 18-9 over their last 27 games and are peaking at the right time for a second straight season. Philadelphia is 11-4 in its last 15 road games against a team with a losing record.

The Braves have been playing well also, going 5-1 over their last six games and they are also 6-2 in their last eight home games. However, those recent home games have come against teams not in playoff contention and they have struggled against the top competition, going 2-11 in their last 13 home games against a team with a winning road record. Atlanta has dropped 19 of the last 26 meetings at home against the Phillies including all six meetings in Atlanta this season.

Jamie Moyer just keeps on going .He is coming off another great effort against the Brewers as he was a third of an inning short of putting up another quality start. Moyer has a 3.05 ERA since June 6 covering 18 starts, 17 of which he has allowed three runs or fewer. He earned a no-decision in his only start this season against the Braves, holding Atlanta to two runs in 5.1 innings. The Phillies are 4-0 in Moyer's last four road starts and 24-8 in his last 32 starts against National League East.

The Braves counter with rookie James Parr who has been spectacular in his first two starts with the club. He has tossed six scoreless innings during each of his first two major league starts. He has been doing everything well but now he faces an offense that can finally get to him. He went against the Rockies and Nationals in those first two games and he now faces the Phillies who are hitting .277 over their last 10 games against right-handed pitching and are 6-2 in their last eight games against a right-handed starter. Play Philadelphia for 1½ units.

Free Pick: Phillies -128

Willie Bee · 09-16-08, 11:01 AM

Sabathia & Dempster keep Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers Under 8½

Game Time: 09/16/2008 08:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Both C.C. Sabathia of Milwaukee and Chicago's Ryan Dempster have been stingy on the scoreboards, making the Under the play when the Cubs host the Brewers.

Our Tuesday night MLB selection is on the Chicago Cubs at home and the Milwaukee Brewers going under the total.

This game begins a crucial three-game series between these two teams, with the Brewers making one last gasp against their division rivals. It's more likely that Milwaukee will be playing for a wild card spot than the division title, as the Cubs have begun to put some distance between themselves and the surprising team from Wisconsin. And this first pitching matchup couldn't be any closer.

Both veterans, Milwaukee's C.C. Sabathia and Chicago's Ryan Dempster, have 15 wins and both have ERAs right around three runs. Sabathia has been everything the Brewers could have hoped for (and more) when they acquired him at the trade deadline. He is 9-0 as a National League starter, but has been stuck on the nine wins since the end of August and could be at least a little frustrated that he hasn't gotten his tenth win since coming over, despite pitching very well in both of his September starts so far.

Dempster has also been a bit snake-bitten lately, not having won in his last three starts despite pitching well. He's faced the Brewers once this season, and he was as dominant as he's been all season, going seven innings, giving up one earned run on only five hits with nine strikeouts.

The Cubs have unexpectedly already been playing in Milwaukee, as their series against the Astros was moved to this city after Hurricane Ike came through the Houston area over the weekend. Carlos Zambrano's no-hitter on Sunday night may well be the first no-no in history that did not take place in the home park of either team. And Ted Lilly pitched another gem on Monday. Clearly, the Cubs' pitching has been spectacular of late. Take the Under.

Free Pick: Brewers-Cubs Under 8½ (-110)

Willie Bee · 09-16-08, 11:02 AM

Mariners +103 at Kansas City Royals

Game Time: 09/16/2008 08:10 PM -
By: Nelly's Sportsline | playbook.com

It's a battle of Brandon's tonight in KC when the Mariners send Brandon Morrow out to battle the Royals' Brandon Duckworth. Side with Seattle as the road pups at Kauffman Stadium.

Brandon Morrow was one of the top relievers in the American League and he has made a smooth transition to a starting role with two excellent outings under his belt. Morrow has allowed just six hits and three runs in nearly 13 innings as a starter and his season ERA is an exceptional 1.64. The Mariners are a respectable 10-9 in the last 19 games and Seattle has won 24 of the last 35 meetings with Kansas City including five of the last nine at Kauffman Stadium.

Brandon Duckworth has allowed at least two runs and pitched less than six innings in each of the last four starts he has made. Duckworth has 12 walks allowed and just 10 strikeouts in 20 innings. Pitching at home has not been beneficial as he owns an 8.00 ERA and a 2.22 WHIP. The Royals enter this series having won four of the past five games but the Kansas City offense has had much better production against left-handed pitching.

Kansas City is seven games below .500 at home this season and the Royals are just 2-6 in Duckworth’s last eight starts. Kansas City has had trouble scoring runs at home with three runs or fewer in twelve of the last 17 home games. Morrow has the potential to a front-of-the-rotation type starter and he will relish the chance to get some late season innings in.

Free Pick: Mariners +103

Willie Bee · 09-16-08, 11:04 AM

St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds Under 9½

Game Time: 09/16/2008 07:10 PM -
By: Steve Merril | 10starpicks.com

St. Louis starter Braden Looper and the Reds' Bronson Arroyo should have enough in their arms to hold the Cardinals and Reds lineups down and cash the Under tonight.

Both offenses enter in poor current form, while both starting pitchers are in excellent form and this should lead to a low-scoring game tonight when the Cincinnati Reds host the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Cardinals have scored three runs or less in five of their past seven games, including two runs or less in three of their past four games. Meanwhile, the Reds have scored three runs or less in each of their past four games.

Both bullpens are rested after traveling on Monday and my pitcher performance ratings predict a solid outing by both starting pitchers tonight. The Cardinals’ Braden Looper is coming off a 4-3 loss versus Chicago last week in which he allowed four runs; however only one run was earned, and overall he still has a solid 1.32 WHIP this season. Cincinnati’s Bronson Arroyo started the season slowly, but he has really turned things around in the second half and is in excellent current form with a 1.33 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in his past three starts.

Free Pick: Cardinals-Reds Under 9½ (-125)

Willie Bee · 09-16-08, 11:05 AM

Shaun Marcum, Toronto Blue Jays -167 at Baltimore Orioles

Game Time: 09/16/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Vernon Croy | 10starpicks.com

Shaun Marcum has been solid since a short stint in the minors, and the Blue Jays are 8-4 against the Orioles this year. Take Toronto on Tuesday at Baltimore's Camden Yards.

The Blue Jays have the superior pitcher on the mound tonight as Shaun Marcum (9-6, 3.38 ERA) has pitched solid in his two games back from a stint in the minors. Marcum has allowed just nine hits over the two starts while allowing just two earned runs over 14.3 innings and has also pitched solid at home this season with an ERA of just 2.81 over 13 starts.

Baltimore's Chris Waters (2-3, 5.73) has struggled over his last three starts with an ERA of 7.63 while allowing 22 hits over just 15.3 innings and I look for the Jays to hit him hard tonight at home where they are hitting .267 as a team this season. The Orioles are just 1-7 in their last eight series openers, and Toronto is a red-hot 6-0 in their last six home games.

The Jays are 8-4 in their 12 games against the Orioles this season and the Orioles are just 7-19 in their last 26 games against a team that has a winning record. Take Toronto for Tuesday night.

Free Pick: Blue Jays -167

Willie Bee · 09-16-08, 11:07 AM

Scoreboard Overload: Detroit Tigers, Texas Rangers Over 11½

Game Time: 09/16/2008 08:05 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

This has all the makings for the Over to cash: Bad pitching and good hitting on both sides. Play the Over when the Texas Rangers host the Detroit Tigers on Tuesday.

Both teams have very good offensive power and bad pitching. The Detroit Tigers' starting staff ERA on the road is 4.76 and the Texas Rangers' batting average at home is .296.

The Tigers send Zach Miner to the mound and over his last nine starts on grass, the Over is 6-2-1. Detroit has played the Over in five of his last seven starts. The over is 30-11-1 in the Rangers' last 41 games vs. AL Central team's. The Over is 5-2 in Kevin Millwood's last seven home starts vs. a team with a losing record and 7-3-1 in his last 11 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

The Over is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings between Detroit and Texas. Play the Over.

Free Pick: Tigers-Rangers Over 11½ (-110)

Willie Bee · 09-16-08, 11:08 AM

Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros -140 at Florida Marlins

Game Time: 09/16/2008 07:10 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

Roy Oswalt is on an incredible run right now, and it won't stop when he takes the hill for Houston in Florida. Back the Astros when they open a three-game set at the Marlins.

The Houston Astros open a three-game series with the Marlins tonight when ace right hander Roy Oswalt takes the hill in Miami.

Aside from being in outstanding KW form with two walks and 13 strikeouts in his last three starts, Oswalt is a mind-boggling 26-7 in games from September 1 out - the best in MLB history. Can't fade numbers like those and we won't. Oswalt and the Astros come up big tonight. We recommend a one-unit play on Houston with Oswalt.

Free Pick: Astros -140

Willie Bee · 09-16-08, 11:09 AM

Play Phillies -125 at Atlanta Braves

Game Time: 09/16/2008 07:10 PM -
By: Bryan Leonard | experts.covers.com

Jamie Moyer is 9-3 with a 2.61 ERA in the road for the Phillies this season, and the Philadelphia lineup should have their way with Braves rookie James Parr in Atlanta on Tuesday.

The Phillies hold a pretty sizable hitting edge in this one as the Braves have struggled vs southpaws all season. Atlanta is averaging just 3.93 runs per game here vs lefties, a full 1.44 RPG less than when facing a right-handed starter.

Philadelphia also has a huge edge in experience on the mound as the seemingly ageless Jamie Moyer takes the hill. The soon-to-be 45-year-old is having his best season in a long while as he boasts a 9-3 record and sparking 2.61 ERA on the road this year. The Phillies have won six of his last seven overall starts including four straight on the road.

Atlanta counters with young James Parr who has been impressive out of the gate. He has yet to be scored upon in his first 12 innings covering two starts. But his minor league numbers don't show him to be ready to pitch well on an everyday basis at this level. Because of his great start the line on this game is well within our parameters. We get a team battling for the playoffs at a cheap price knowing Philadelphia has taken 12 of the last 14 games in this series. Play Philadelphia.

Free Pick: Phillies -125

Willie Bee · 09-16-08, 11:11 AM

Farewell home stand: White Sox, Yankees Under 9½

Game Time: 09/16/2008 07:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

The White Sox and Yankees have been struggling offensively lately, so the 4-2 Yankees win last night was par for the course. With Floyd having a breakout year and Pettitte still serviceable, go Under again.

This is the final home stand in the history of Yankee Stadium, but unfortunately the New York Yankees are no longer the Bronx Bombers and we look for another rather low scoring affair vs. the Chicago White Sox tonight.

The Yankees took the series opener 4-2 here last night, and look for more of the same here with Andy Pettitte opposing Gavin Floyd. Pettitte is not what he once was, but he is still more than serviceable, having allowed three runs or less in five of his last seven starts. Also, the Yankees bullpen has been better than at any other part of this year lately, with a nice 2.97 ERA over the last 10 games.

Floyd is having a breakout season for the Sox, currently sitting at 15-7 with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 181.1 innings. He has almost always kept his team in the game, as Chicago is 20-9 in all of his starts this year, and he has not minded pitching on the road, with a 3.93 ERA away from US Cellular Field.

Finally, neither of these offenses has been tearing the ball up lately, and we do not expect that to change vs. these pitchers tonight.

Free Pick: White Sox, Yankees Under 9½ (-110)