Dexter's 2012 MLB Plays

atofsu32111 · 04-25-12, 10:13 PM

That braves lad should of been A3 I only put 2u you should adjust your system slightly Lily wasn't gonna have a down game vs lowly braves bats crapper over my head damn

Dexter · 04-25-12, 10:28 PM

Originally posted by atofsu32111

That braves lad should of been A3 I only put 2u you should adjust your system slightly Lily wasn't gonna have a down game vs lowly braves bats crapper over my head damn

thanks for the advice chief

bmur714 · 04-25-12, 10:37 PM

Nice hit again on the A3 Dex

Top of the 9th in that KC/Cle was bs...but hey can't win them all

On to tomorrow!

CrazyCarl · 04-26-12, 12:00 AM

Ugh, missed that a3 play today. Bummer.

gilbert91016 · 04-26-12, 01:05 AM

Where do you guys find the bullpen Ranking?

gilbert91016 · 04-26-12, 01:20 AM

Arizona/Miami Looks like A3 Friday or am I missing something

gilbert91016 · 04-26-12, 01:27 AM

Rays/Rangers look like A3

Dexter · 04-26-12, 05:30 AM

Originally posted by gilbert91016

Arizona/Miami Looks like A3 Friday or am I missing something

where are you getting last 3 games whip for friday games?

remypom · 04-26-12, 06:53 AM

Lol 2 a3 woulda gave me a heart attack anyways lol thanks for the play dex!!!

abv · 04-26-12, 07:17 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

where are you getting last 3 games whip for friday games?

Yahoo already has the pitching matchups listed for Friday under Scores & Schedule. You can just click each pitcher and visually inspect the recent stats, the math is simple enough. If I'm interpreting the system rules correctly and it averages the WHIP for the last 3 games rather than taking each of the games individually, then yes both are system plays.

h4v3st · 04-26-12, 07:17 AM

Hello Dexter,

I new here. You can explains how works A3?

CHAZ · 04-26-12, 07:34 AM

Originally posted by h4v3st

Hello Dexter,

I new here. You can explains how works A3?

Originally posted by Dexter

Same Auto-Bets from last season, except i will assign different weights compared to 2011. A4 will obviously have a new stable of umpires as i look at the last 2 seasons of data.

A1: Playing any Starting Pitcher who has a WHIP of 1.00 or < in his last 3 games over a pitcher who has a 1.80 or > WHIP in his last 3. Both pitchers last 3 games have to be within the last 30 days. The pitcher with the 1.00 or less WHIP must have the better ranked bullpen era behind him. I will move some plays to the run-line when i cant get a better price then -160. 3u per play.

A2: Playing the Over when both pitchers have a WHIP of 1.80 or > in their last 3 games. Both pitchers last 3 games have to be within the last 30 days. Neither of the 2 bullpens can be ranked 1-5 in era. 3u per play.

A3: Playing the Under when both pitchers have a WHIP of 1.00 or < in their last 3 games. Both pitchers last 3 games have to be within the last 30 days. Neither of the 2 bullpens can be ranked 26th - 30th in era. 10u per play.

A4: Playing the Over or Under per the below when these Umpires are behind home plate. Win rate for these Umpires has been 58% or > for 2010, and 2011.

Over Umpires: Sam Holbrook (2u), Kerwin Danley (2u), Scott Barry (2u), Tim Welke (2u), Mark Wegner (2u)
Under Umpires: Greg Gibson (4u), Lance Barksdale (2u), Doug Eddings (2u), Dan Iassogna (2u)

There you go...

G-manFan · 04-26-12, 08:17 AM

Originally posted by abv

Yahoo already has the pitching matchups listed for Friday under Scores & Schedule. You can just click each pitcher and visually inspect the recent stats, the math is simple enough. If I'm interpreting the system rules correctly and it averages the WHIP for the last 3 games rather than taking each of the games individually, then yes both are system plays.

Not exactly, Arizona's bullpen is ranked 24th and could fall to 26th, therefore negating that play. Also Tampa Bay is 29th, so that game isn't a play.

Dexter · 04-26-12, 08:58 AM

This is why I didn't want to post the criteria anymore. There really is no need for all this confusion again. Identifying a play 2 days from now serves no purpose since bullpen data can change and there are no lines yet for Friday games. Yahoo is not a site I trust-use for this data. It doesn't even show whip avg last 3.

Leave a1-a3 up to me to post. I will Never miss one of these plays. I appreciate the effort but Just posting the a4 umps when I'm not around is all I need.

Booya711 · 04-26-12, 09:07 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

This is why I didn't want to post the criteria anymore. There really is no need for all this confusion again. Identifying a play 2 days from now serves no purpose since bullpen data can change and there are no lines yet for Friday games. Yahoo is not a site I trust-use for this data. It doesn't even show whip avg last 3.

Leave a1-a3 up to me to post. I will Never miss one of these plays. I appreciate the effort but Just posting the a4 umps when I'm not around is all I need.

EXACTLY!...Let Dexter post the plays....It is all good that you guys are trying to learn and take the initiative to figure out the plays on your own...just write them down for your knowledge and DONT post...will make this thread easily readible, so we all get the right plays and make $$$$$$...Good Luck to everyone!!

Dexter · 04-26-12, 09:15 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

Thursday 4/26:

(1u) Nationals -110

(2u) Over Reds 8 (A4-Welke)
(2u) Over Nationals 6 (A4-Barry)

gilbert91016 · 04-26-12, 09:42 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

This is why I didn't want to post the criteria anymore. There really is no need for all this confusion again. Identifying a play 2 days from now serves no purpose since bullpen data can change and there are no lines yet for Friday games. Yahoo is not a site I trust-use for this data. It doesn't even show whip avg last 3.

Leave a1-a3 up to me to post. I will Never miss one of these plays. I appreciate the effort but Just posting the a4 umps when I'm not around is all I need.

I apologies was just trying help out

allabout the $$$ · 04-26-12, 09:42 AM

lets get them dex

Dexter · 04-26-12, 09:50 AM

Originally posted by gilbert91016

I apologies was just trying help out

No need to apologize man. Appreciate the effort.

gilbert91016 · 04-26-12, 09:52 AM

Dex where do u get your bullpen rankings ?

k310 · 04-26-12, 10:16 AM

Originally posted by gilbert91016

Dex where do u get your bullpen rankings ?

Originally posted by G-manFan

Baltimore/LA possible A3. Both pitchers WHIP 0.89 & 0.89. Dont know where to find the bullpen ranking?..

Originally posted by Dexter

yup.....very close, but no A3......i still may be play the under small.
thanks for looking out.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/...hing/split/128

gilbert91016 · 04-26-12, 10:17 AM

Thanks k310. Just found it my self

r1kkie · 04-26-12, 11:01 AM

Good luck today Dexter!

Madison · 04-26-12, 11:21 AM

Some pretty ugly whip's in the Sea/Det, LA/TB, and Tor/Bal games.

joco · 04-26-12, 11:21 AM

Damn ur gettin good numbers on totals. My book has reds at 8.5 and nats at 6.5

Dexter · 04-26-12, 11:41 AM

Originally posted by joco

Damn ur gettin good numbers on totals. My book has reds at 8.5 and nats at 6.5

Ok. Thanks.

jcygts6 · 04-26-12, 12:38 PM

Good luck Dex!

Dexter · 04-26-12, 01:49 PM

Damn. Stubbs got greedy and went for 3. C'mon Phillips. One time

azn624 · 04-26-12, 02:09 PM

Hopefully SF can score one in the top 9th...

SlickRick1382 · 04-26-12, 02:21 PM

BOOM (as bass would say)

HR bomb to get the job done !!!!

Dexter · 04-26-12, 02:21 PM

Boom!

bigjah15 · 04-26-12, 02:23 PM

Bat told the ball to "getttt ouuuuddaaa hurrr"

Dexter · 04-26-12, 02:31 PM

Out for the night. Ruth's Chris steak house. Love this place.

bmur714 · 04-26-12, 02:50 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

Out for the night. Ruth's Chris steak house. Love this place.

Nice!!! I've learned to order rare when I get a filet there. That damn plate is so hot it cooks up one... gotta love the sauteed shrooms

SlickRick1382 · 04-26-12, 05:02 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

Out for the night. Ruth's Chris steak house. Love this place.

Enjoy bud, you deserve it. Another profitable day ....