Front Page MLB Picks (Thu., Aug 14)

[Willie Bee]

Toronto Blue Jays, Detroit Tigers Under 9½ in matinee

Game Time: 08/14/2008 01:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Armando Galarraga has been the most consistent pitcher on the Tigers’ staff this year, while Jesse Litsch may regain his old form coming back from the minors.

Given the unexpected struggles of Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers this season, a strong case can be made that young Armando Galarraga has been the ace of the staff. Meanwhile, Jesse Litsch of the Toronto Blue Jays is very capable of recapturing his good early season form after a stint in the minors.

Galarraga has been a godsend, going 10-4 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 125.1 innings, with the Tigers as a team going 14-6 in his starts. He has allowed three runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts and he allowed just four earned runs in each of the two non-quality efforts. Galarraga also tossed 5.1 scoreless innings while allowing just three hits in his only other start vs. Toronto.

Now Litsch got off to a great start this season, but he went into a swoon posting a disgusting 10.66 ERA and 2.05 WHIP in his last three starts, prompting the Jays to send him to the minors. To his credit, Litsch did not complain outwardly at the demotion despite having had some success in the majors, and perhaps this was just the jolt he needed.

Remember that he did pitch well in the majors last season with a 3.81 ERA in 20 starts, and he was off to a 7-1 start this year. Also, the added benefit of the Tigers having never faced him before could help him regain his form here.

Finally, the Toronto Under is on a 12-4-1 run, and if we are right about Litsch being straightened out, that streak should improve this afternoon.

Free Pick: Blue Jays, Tigers Under 9½ (-125)

[Willie Bee]

Shields, Tampa Bay Rays -127 too much for Oakland A's

Game Time: 08/14/2008 03:35 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | sportspic.com

The Athletics have lost eight of their last 10 at home and they face Rays ace James Shields in Thursday's contest. Take Tampa Bay on the money line today at Oakland.

Tampa Bay continues its road trip following another solid win last night over Oakland. The Rays have won three of four and 11 of their last 14 games to remain three games in front of Boston in the American League East. The pitching has been outstanding as the Rays have allowed three runs or fewer in nine of those games and they have posted a 3.09 ERA over that span. The Rays are 19-7 in their last 26 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game.

Oakland continues to struggle following a dismal road trip where the Athletics went just 1-9. Heading home is not necessarily a good thing as the A's have lost four of five and eight of their last 10 games. Going back even further, Oakland is 4-22 in their last 26 overall. The problem is the offense as it has mustered three runs or fewer in 21 of those games, averaging only 2.67 RPG over that stretch. The A's are 1-6 in their last seven home games against a team with a losing road record.

James Shields continues to move forward with his solid pitching as he is now 10-7 with a 3.65 ERA on the year. He has tossed nine quality outings over his last 10 starts including three of four on the road. Shields has not had great success overall on the road but it is made up by his success during the day as he is 4-1 with a 2.49 ERA in seven starts with Tampa Bay going 6-1 in those games.

Oakland's Sean Gallagher has now gone four straight starts without a quality performance and he has been bothered by a balky right shoulder. Play Tampa Bay for 1½ units.

Free Pick: Rays -127

[Willie Bee]

Play Toronto Blue Jays +158 over Detroit Tigers

Game Time: 08/14/2008 01:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Vernon Wells has returned to the Blue Jays lineup to spark what had been a quiet offensive attack. Take Toronto as the road dogs today against the Tigers in Detroit.

Our Thursday afternoon MLB selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays on the road in Motown over the Detroit Tigers.

The 2008 version of the Toronto Blue Jays could feature one of the weakest hitting lineups of this franchise in recent memory, but should get a boost from the return of outfielder Vernon Wells who, if he can finally stay healthy, may make an impact for this team in the last six weeks of the season.

On the mound for the Tigers is 26-year-old rookie Armando Galarraga who has been a huge surprise for Detroit, and perhaps is their best overall starter in 2008 as he has clearly added his name to the list as a contender for American League Rookie of the Year. Somewhat surprisingly, though, Galarraga has done his best work by far on the road this year, going 7-2 with an incredible ERA of 2.72 when pitching away from Comerica Park. At home, the rookie is mediocre, with a 4.11 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.

Right-handed starter Jesse Litsch will take the mound for Toronto this afternoon, and Detroit continues to underperform vs. righties this season, going 35-50 and down almost 24 net games on the money line. Take the Jays.

Free Pick: Blue Jays +158

[pimike]

Nice write up sir. Almost talked me out of the A's bet today.

[Willie Bee]

Just reprints from the front page, Mike. When you do see any picks from me, fade 'em

[Willie Bee]

Brewers -105 at San Diego Padres

Game Time: 08/14/2008 03:35 PM -
By: Nelly's Sportsline | playbook.com

It's a solid pitching matchup with Milwaukee's Ben Sheets facing Jake Peavy in San Diego. Look for the Brewers to walk away with their ninth-straight win this afternoon vs. the Padres.

Although Jake Peavy remains one of the top pitchers in the National League, being stuck on the struggling Padres makes him a go-against pitcher. San Diego is 8-12 when Peavy starts and actually just 5-12 in his last 17 starts despite being favored in 15 of those games.

Peavy still has good numbers but he has been inconsistent with his control at times. He has allowed three or more walks in the three of his last four starts and the Padres are just 4-17 in the last 21 home games.

The Brewers are a hot team right now with wins in eight straight games, and Milwaukee is one of the few teams in baseball with a winning road record. The Brewers do not hit for a high average but Milwaukee is scoring runs, with five or more runs scored in each of the past seven games.

Ben Sheets enters this game off a brilliant outing last week and the Brewers are 10-4 behind him in his road starts. Look for Milwaukee to solve Peavy and send the Padres to another loss.

Free Pick: Brewers -105

[Willie Bee]

LA Dodgers -131 vs. Phillies

Game Time: 08/14/2008 10:10 PM -
By: Doc's Sports | 10starpicks.com

The Phillies have lost three straight while the Dodgers have won three straight to move into a tie for the NL West lead. Los Angeles is the play at home tonight against Philadelphia.

The finale of this critical series takes place on Thursday at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles. We like the Dodgers in this matchup since they will be up against the Phillies' Brett Myers, a player that has been a starter and reliever and a minor leaguer this season. He has terrible numbers going 5-9 with a 5.09 E.R.A. His WHIP is 1.43 and this newly created Dodgers lineup should be running the bases all night long.

His opponent will be Hiroki Kuroda and he is coming off back-to-back outstanding starts in which he went over 15 innings and allowed just two runs. After tonight’s performance we will lower his ERA under four runs per game and the Dodgers will inch closer to the Diamondbacks in the standings.

Free Pick: Dodgers -131

[Willie Bee]

Sizzling Brewers & Sheets -105 at San Diego Padres

Game Time: 08/14/2008 03:35 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

Coming off their eighth-straight win last night, Milwaukee is to hot for the struggling Padres. Side with Ben Sheets and the Brewers Thursday at Petco Park in San Diego.

Two solid pitchers meet up in this one with Ben Sheets of the Brewers facing off vs. the Padres' Jake Peavy.

After last night's 7-1 victory the Brewers have won eight straight. Milwaukee is 20-7 in their last 27 road games. In their last 13 road games vs. a right-handed starter the Brewers are 11-2. Milwaukee is 13-4 in Sheets last 17 road starts. In his last 14 starts vs. a team with a losing record, the Brewers are 10-4.

San Diego is 16-36 in their last 52 games overall. In their last 56 games as a dog they are 18-38. San Diego has lost four of Peavy's last five starts overall and six of his last eight home starts.

The Brewers are just that much better than the Padres and will take this one. Play on Milwaukee.

Free Pick: Brewers -105

[Willie Bee]

Cincinnati Reds +110 over Pirates

Game Time: 08/14/2008 07:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Johnny Cueto has been very inconsistent, but he has looked dominant at times vs. weak lineups, and the Pirates qualify in that regard. Ian Snell has been a major disappointment, so take the Reds as dogs.

Not too much separates Johnny Cueto of the Cincinnati Reds and Ian Snell of the Pittsburgh Pirates statistically this year, but we feel that young Cueto has more upside and the Pirates are generally a poor play as favorites anyway.

Besides, Cueto has allowed three runs in three of his last four starts, and he may at worst duplicate that vs. a Pittsburgh offense here that is bating a horrific .218 vs. right-handed pitching the last 10 games. Despite his 5.01 ERA, Cueto has looked dominant at times this year, especially vs. the weaker clubs in the league, and the Pirates certainly fall into that category.

On the other hand, Snell has been a huge disappointment after showing so much promise last season, and he really has shown no signs of coming out of his funk. Even worse, he has been awful against the Reds, allowing 23 earned runs and 35 hits in only 21.2 innings over his last four starts against them.

Finally, both of these teams have basically called it a year and traded some key players lately, which automatically gives value to the underdog.

Free Pick: Reds +110