Johan Santana Nugget

[andybord]

In the NY Mets 13 team wins in Johan starts this year, they have missed covering the -1.5 run line only once (vs. Pittsburgh on 4/29).

The moral of this story is, if you think Johan will win a start, the run line looks like a safe bet.

In a related story, I'm on the Mets -1.5 tonight at Washington.

[fifawcs]

You will be in for a rude awakening.

[andybord]

You will be in for a rude awakening.

I hope not. We'll see I guess.

[WVUsuperfan]

You will be in for a rude awakening.

I really dont understand why everyone is riding on the Nats tonight.. Johan will dominate them tonight.. take it to the bank

[VegasDave]

GL andy... You'll be fine through the first 7, it'll be the last 2 innings that have you pulling your hair out.

[andybord]

GL andy... You'll be fine through the first 7, it'll be the last 2 innings that have you pulling your hair out.

LOL...Yeah, you're right on this one. Aaron Heilman in the 9th is enough to make you sick.........

[fifawcs]

If you want to see my reasons in detail, go to my post titled Tuesday Value Plays. For one, I don't see how you guys can lay that kind of chalk on a team whose bullpen has been blowing games left and right. Second, the Nats are a new team since getting some of their guys back from the DL. Luckily, the linesmakers haven't adjusted yet and we are still able to get great prices on them. Third, the team was overmatched in Milwaukee, but still put up some fight while being swept. I guess you can say that they are due to win this game. The Mets are 25-32 on the road, so getting them at -200 may not be the wisest thing. Odalis Perez has very good numbers at home and is looking for his third straight win. And that's just about it.

[aznbluff]

Johan is going 8+

[andybord]

If you want to see my reasons in detail, go to my post titled Tuesday Value Plays. For one, I don't see how you guys can lay that kind of chalk on a team whose bullpen has been blowing games left and right. Second, the Nats are a new team since getting some of their guys back from the DL. Luckily, the linesmakers haven't adjusted yet and we are still able to get great prices on them. Third, the team was overmatched in Milwaukee, but still put up some fight while being swept. I guess you can say that they are due to win this game. The Mets are 25-32 on the road, so getting them at -200 may not be the wisest thing. Odalis Perez has very good numbers at home and is looking for his third straight win. And that's just about it.

You make some good points in here...BUT....you really can't say that they put up a good fight in Milwaukee......They were outscored 23-5...The one game they had a chance to win, they blew it.....

OD Perez is good at home, but has only one winning decision there this year. He has only won his last 2 starts....LAD beat him 6-0.

The Mets bullpen is an obvious concern.

[WVUsuperfan]

Johan is going 8+

I agree 110% with this.. there is no way you will be seeing Heilman in the 9th today.. Santana into the 8th hopefully he can go the distance though... if not Kunz will be handed the ball for the 9th.

[fifawcs]

Obviously, you guys don't understand what being a +185 underdog means. There are very few picks that are locks at those odds. But you have to think about the price you are paying to get Johan santana. You are paying -210 for a team that is playing on the road against an improved team. Also, you are paying that price for a 25-32 road team that has struggled against the Nats in the past. The value is clearly on Odalis Perez, since the chances of him winning are not as little as you think and you are getting a great payout.

[andybord]

Obviously, you guys don't understand what being a +185 underdog means. There are very few picks that are locks at those odds. But you have to think about the price you are paying to get Johan santana. You are paying -210 for a team that is playing on the road against an improved team. Also, you are paying that price for a 25-32 road team that has struggled against the Nats in the past. The value is clearly on Odalis Perez, since the chances of him winning are not as little as you think and you are getting a great payout.

Good luck. +185 is a nice payout on a home team. Can't argue with that.

[B1GER1C828]

the reason people will lay nats is because :

when they are wrong..who gives a shit? they chased a big dog and missed...BUT

if they hit, they can flood the board wit "i told you so" posts and think they r the shit. it happens everytime. mets are clearly the rite choice. SHIP IT!

[ryanXL977]

johan does not go 8+
they have no pen
thats a foolish wager

[VegasDave]

Eh, if they played this game with these exact lineups and pitchers 100 times, would the Nats win more than 35 times?

A) If yes, bet the Nats at +185

B) If no, do not bet the Nats at +185

Simple enough. I circle B. Apparently fifa circles A.

[ryanXL977]

fifa is right, dont lay on a team with a bad pen
dont do it
take a dog like az, who is good, or lad, who is good
why lay on the road on a team with no pen

[Kingctb27]

The free swinging Nats don't have much of a chance tonight. Johan will make them look silly.

[VegasDave]

fifa is right, dont lay on a team with a bad pen
dont do it
take a dog like az, who is good, or lad, who is good
why lay on the road on a team with no pen

Because you are getting one of the best pitchers in the game over the last 5 years VS. the team with the worst record in the majors and the lowest amount of runs scored in the majors?

I see where you are coming from saying you'd skip this game, but calling this a foolish wager is a little silly.

[ryanXL977]

do the mets win when johan starts? do the mets have a pen?
i know johan is the best, johan is not a 9 inning pitcher either

they have blown like 8 of his wins in the last 2 innings, so why bet them

[ryanXL977]

i am the king of foolish picks so i think i know what i am tlaking about

[fifawcs]

If Johan is the most amazing pitcher ever, then why is he 9-7. I think a majority of you Mets backers don't realize that the Nats are a different team than they were earlier in the year. Now, they have their stars back and acquired Emilio Bonifacio from AZ who has been working out. There is no way you guys will be convinced, so we will just have to wait for the game to pan out. -210 is a big price to lay on a bad road team and a crap pen.

[ryanXL977]

bad logic there fifa, a pitcher with no pen doesnt control his wins. he has had 6 wins taken from him in the 9th. thats shoddy logic
johan is the best, year in and year out
by a mile

[fifawcs]

He probably is the best pitcher in the game, but he is not perfect. These people seem to think that he is infallible. Bullpen is also part of what you are buying when you pay -210. So that is still their problem.

[ryanXL977]

i mean, the guy has one bad start a year. the reason not to bet the mets is, as you said, they have no pen, they blow every game he starts

but it aint his fault he is 9-7

[smitch124]

Maybe a lean toward NYM -0.5 (-145) 1st 5

[fifawcs]

I just took a look at his gamelog and it seems like all of his bad starts this year have been on the road. I'm not counting the game against the Mariners since 4 of those runs were unearned.

[ryanXL977]

fifa, for a guy who likes career stats vs a team i am suprised you are not loving az+115 today

[fifawcs]

I would, but Ubaldo Jimenez is really unpredictable. The guy could also be lights out. Personally, I think the Dbacks pen kinda blows. The Rockies are also kinda due. You are right though, Johnson owns the rockies. Good luck.

[ryanXL977]

i think the dbacks pen is good. i am a big fan of the pen. ubaldo is solid i guess but look at unit the last few weeks,
he is on fire
he never walks anyone

[bostonbruins]

@ryanXL977

You on the Rangers tonight? Hopefully +140 & my hatred for the Red Sox pays off..

[DazeyBlazer]

mets will win this one with ease...johan is gonna have fun. mets -1.5 is best bet here as well as the under....thinking like 4-1 final or around thur...

[ryanXL977]

i dunno about tex tonite
maybe

[B1GER1C828]

i am the king of foolish picks so i think i know what i am tlaking about

this guy also said dempster sux at home...and then cubs won 6-2...go on mets 2nite

[ryanXL977]

i never ever said dempster sucks at home
ever
dont lie bro, its not cool

[fifawcs]

Dempster does suck. And the Cubs can't win every game at home.