Front Page MLB Picks (Fri, Aug 8)

[Willie Bee]

Wolf, Houston Astros +115 howl at Cincinnati Reds

Game Time: 08/08/2008 07:10 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Two sub-.500 NL Central squads meet for the second of a four-game series, and the Houston Astros' bats should be too much for Johnny Cueto and the Cincinnati Reds.

Our Friday night MLB selection is on the Houston Astros on the road over the Cincinnati Reds in Porkopolis.

If ever a pitcher needed a change of scenery, it was 31-year-old left-hander Randy Wolf, and the recent move from the weak-hitting Padres to the Astros would seem to be a win-win for both Wolf and Houston. After spending the better part of the past two seasons on two NL West, offensively-challenged clubs (Wolf was with the Dodgers in 2007 before joining San Diego in the offseason), he finally finds himself on a team that can give him the type of run support he will need to thrive.

And Houston caught fire lately having recently won eight of nine games between July 27 and August 4. Although the Astros are too far back in NL Central to make a serious run at the postseason this year, they can certainly still play the role of spoiler.

The Reds' Johnny Cueto will be a very good starter some day, but that day is still probably at least a year away as Cueto is barely 22. Although he throws in the mid-to-high 90s, he lacks the maturity to effectively mix his pitches and that will only come with more seasoning. Let's hope the Reds don't burn him out by giving him too many innings too soon. They would be wise to give Cueto some rest before the end of this season. Take the 'Stros tonight behind the veteran Wolf.

Free Pick: Astros +115

[Willie Bee]

Cubs -160 vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Game Time: 08/08/2008 02:20 PM -
By: Tom Stryker | phoenixsports.com

Seven of the last eight times the Cubs have sent Ted Lilly to the Wrigley mound, Chicago's North Siders have cashed. That continues today when the Cubs host the Cardinals.

Chicago took care of business last week by sweeping division rival Milwaukee. Now, with a six-game lead on St. Louis, the Cubs would love to get a little more breathing room between themselves and the Cardinals.

In order to get this series started on the right foot, the Cubbies will turn to southpaw Ted Lilly. The Torrance, CA, product has been dynamite in his last four starts. Facing the Pirates, Brewers, Diamondbacks and Astros, Lilly has been touched for only eight earned runs and 25 hits in 25.1 innings of work. Equally impressive, with No. 30 on the bump Chicago has cashed eight of their last nine at Wrigley and seven of eight matched up against a greater than .500 foe.

St. Louis will counter with Braden Looper. Even though the former Wichita State Shocker has pitched well in his last three starts, this is not the spot for Braden. With the lights turned off, Looper has struggled something fierce. With 30.0 innings of daytime work in the bank, No. 41 has been clocked for 22 earned runs and 45 hits. That adds up to a lofty 6.60 ERA!

To make matters worse, with Looper on the bump, the Cardinals have dropped eight straight on foreign soil matched up against a greater than .500 foe.

Chicago has been awesome as home chalk cashing 41 of their last 53 and nailing 22 of 30 in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field matched up against a right-handed pitcher. Meanwhile, St. Louis has dropped 10 of 13 against winning teams.

The Cubs enjoyed an off day on Thursday and catch the Cards ragged off their tough series against the Dodgers. Lay the lumber here men. Take Chicago with listed pitcher Lilly.

Free Pick: Cubs -160

[Willie Bee]

Nationals +275 bark at the Brewers

Game Time: 08/08/2008 08:05 PM -
By: Stephen Nover | covers.com

Talk about your underdogs! The Nationals enter this one with all of the chalk on the side of the Brewers and C.C. Sabathia. Washington has won six of seven and should cash tonight.

It has been quite a while since I saw this big of an underdog. Milwaukee starter C.C. Sabathia has been everything and more the Brewers could have wanted so far. He's 5-0 with a 1.88 ERA in six starts for Milwaukee.

But the underdog Nationals have a few things going their way for this matchup. Sabathia has averaged 114 pitches during his last five starts. He's also never faced Washington before.

The Nationals are playing well, winning six of their last seven. They are going with young players, such as second baseman Emilio Bonifacio, and are loose feeling no pressure. Lastings Milledge is swinging a hot bat with four homers in his last six games.

Washington swept a doubleheader from Colorado at Coors Field on Thursday. That has to boost the Nationals' confidence.

Washington stater Collin Balester is one of the Nationals' better young pitchers. He has a 3.31 ERA in three starts since the All-Star break. The Nationals just may steal this series-opener.

Free Pick: Nationals +275

[Willie Bee]

Cleveland Indians +115 at Toronto Blue Jays behind Reyes

Game Time: 08/08/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Dave Cokin | playbook.com

Anthony Reyes makes his debut with the Indians tonight and will be out to impress his new team. Cash Cleveland as small road dogs against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Anthony Reyes burst on the scene as a top prospect a few years back with the Cardinals, but never lived up to the tease. Now he's got a chance for a new start with the Indians.

Reyes has looked good at AAA since the move. Of course, he's excelled at that level previously, so I'm not going overboard with enthusiasm. But his stuff is more than good enough to succeed in the show.

I'm not sure that holds true for Toronto's David Purcey. The Blue Jays starter is prone to the long ball and frequently loses the strike zone. I don't see him as reliable chalk and I'll give Reyes and the Indians a good shot tonight.

Free Pick: Indians +115

[Willie Bee]

Cueto, Reds -127 vs. Houston Astros

Game Time: 08/08/2008 07:10 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

Johnny Cueto has been strong at home for the Reds while Houston lefty Randy Wolf has struggled on the road this year. Cincinnati cashes on Friday night when they host the Astros.

The Reds and Astros meet in the second of a four-game weekend series this evening when Johnny Cueto takes on Randy Wolf in the Queen City.

A quick check of each hurlers' home and road dichotomies this season tells us all we need to know here as Cueto home ERA is a full run better than on the road while Wolf's road ERA is more than 3.5 runs worse than his home ERA. With the Reds 9-3 on Friday, including 5-1 at home, look for the home team to improve to 17-7 in Cueto's starts here tonight.

We recommend a one-unit play on Cincinnati with Cueto vs. Wolf.

Free Pick: Reds -127

[Willie Bee]

Minnesota Twins, Kansas City Royals stay Under 9½

Game Time: 08/08/2008 08:10 PM -
By: Ron Raymond | phoenixsports.com

The Under is the angle tonight when Minnesota sends Kevin Slowey to the mound in Kansas City against Kyle Davies. Look for the Twins and Royals to stay under 9½.

The Twins are playing 60% baseball in their last 10 games and they will be sending out Kevin Slowey this evening vs. the Royals and Kyle Davies.

The Under is 6-4-0 in the Royals' last 10 contests and they are only averaging 2.67 runs per game in their last three outings. Being a numbers handicapper, here are a few statistical angles playing in our Under favor this evening:

When the Minnesota Twins are a road team the last five years and had these situations occur in their previous games -

1. With 3 Over or Less;
2. Won Last Game by 4 Runs or More;
3. With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G;

The Under is 10-2-1 for the Twins in this role.

Furthermore, when the Royals are a home team vs. a division foe and the total is between 9½-10, they are coming off a home loss as an underdog and they are on a two-game losing streak, the Under is 8-3-0 for KC in this spot since 1998.

Free Pick: Twins-Royals Under 9½ (-125)

[Willie Bee]

Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks stay Under 9

Game Time: 08/08/2008 09:40 PM -
By: Ross Benjamin | phoenixsports.com

The Braves simply don't have enough offense right now to help push any total over. Play the Under tonight when Doug Davis and the Arizona Diamondbacks host Atlanta.

The Braves have gone over the total in just 17 of their 57 away games this season. Atlanta starter Jorge Campillo enters the game in sizzling hot form off of his last four starts posting a 0.81 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and a better than 8:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

In six starts on the road this season, Campillo has posted a stellar 2.08 ERA. Campillo has seen just one of his last eight starts go over the total when pitching on four days of rest. Atlanta has gone under the total in 23 of their last 29 as an underdog of +150 or less.

Arizona Diamondbacks starter Doug Davis enters the game in good form off of his last three starts posting a solid 1.16 WHIP. Play under the total on Friday.

Free Pick: Braves-Diamondbacks Under 9 (-115)

[Willie Bee]

Indians +110 at Toronto Blue Jays

Game Time: 08/08/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

The Blue Jays are a pathetic 7-20 in their last 27 against the Indians. Cleveland is the play as the underdogs tonight; take the Tribe on the road at the Rogers Centre in Toronto.

Cleveland is 8-3 in their last 11 vs. AL East opponents. The Indians are 4-1 in their last five opening games of a series.

The Indians send Anthony Reyes to the mound to make his first start with the Tribe, and he'll be facing a Blue Jays team that has struggled to hit all season long. Look for Reyes to keep the Jays off balance tonight.

Toronto is coming off a four-game sweep of the A's and will have a harder time in this series vs. an Indians team they have struggled against of late. The Blue Jays are 7-20 in the last 27 meetings between the clubs. Play on Cleveland.

Free Pick: Indians +110