Front Page Picks (Wed., Aug 6)

[Willie Bee]

Cleveland Indians, Tampa Bay Rays to stay Under 8 early

Game Time: 08/06/2008 12:40 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Kazmir has a 1.87 ERA at home, and he is facing an Indians team that hits .208 vs. lefties on the road. Sowers allowed two runs vs. the Rays last time. Go Under.

Scott Kazmir of the Tampa Bay Rays has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year, and even the maligned Jeremy Sowers has pitched better lately, so look for the offenses to struggle in this early afternoon matinee.

Kazmir has a 2.89 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 17 starts this season, with the Under going 12-5 in those contests. He has allowed two runs or less in four of his last five starts, and he has been virtually unhittable at home, where he is 5-1 with an outstanding 1.87 ERA in nine starts, with the Under going 7-2.

Now Sowers was one of the worst pitchers in baseball earlier this season, but he has not allowed more than four runs in any of his last four starts. This streak started when he allowed just two runs and three hits vs. these Rays in Cleveland. It is also worth noting that despite his early season trouble, the Under is still 8-4 in all Sowers starts.

Of course much of that has to do with what had been an inept Cleveland offense, and the Indians are hitting a pathetic .208 vs. left-handers on the road this season. Also, the Rays have not exactly scorched the ball lately either, batting a modest .246 as a team the last 10 games.

Finally, the Under is 7-3 in the last 10 Tampa Bay games and 4-1 in the last five Cleveland games, and we look for those streaks to continue.

Free Pick: Indians, Rays Under 8 (-115)

[Willie Bee]

New York Yankees & Texas Rangers soar Over 12½

Game Time: 08/06/2008 08:05 PM -
By: Bread | sbrforum.com

There's no reason to think this Yankees, Rangers contest won't go Over at the hitter's haven in Texas with right-handers Sidney Ponson and Tommy Hunter on the hill.

It should be business as usual for bettors who enjoy the Over when the New York Yankees play the Texas Rangers on Wednesday night. Sportsbooks currently have the line set at 12½ runs. With the way that these two teams have been playing recently … on both sides of the ball … that line should not be much of a problem.

I was saddened to learn that Jason Giambi’s recent slump prompted him to shave off his walrus-like moustache. One less smile on Bread’s face for this game. That smile should quickly return, however, once the Yankees and Rangers start to light up the scoreboard.

The Over is 10-1 in the Yankees' last 11 games. Three times during that stretch it was New York reaching double digits, scoring 10, 13 and 14 runs in wins against Boston, Baltimore and the L.A. Angels. Twice, they lost while giving up double digits, 13 to Baltimore and 12 to the Angels. Three other times within this same stretch, nine runs were scored by the Yankees or their opponent.

For the Rangers, the Over is 11-2-1 in their last 14 games. They scored 14 runs en route to beating up Oakland. They also gave up 10 runs to the White Sox two nights in a row! Then there was the Over bettor’s dream game, an 11-10 victory over Seattle. Texas also was involved in three more nine-run efforts.

So as you can see, the runs are being produced just as much as they are being given up. Both games of this series so far were high scoring. There are many reasons why it will be again tonight.

Texas will be starting untested righty Tommy Hunter who struggled a bit in his major league debut on Friday against Toronto. From that game he has emerged with a 10.80 ERA. Of course, that doesn’t mean much with only one game under his belt. Unfortunately for Tommy, an experienced team like the Yankees are not going to help his cause. Even with their maturing stars, New York is sixth in the league in runs scored.

The man on the mound for visiting New York will be Sidney Ponson (6-2 4.23 ERA) who started the year pitching for Texas. Once again he apparently wore out his welcome in Arlington and was waived. After spending the first six years of his career with the Orioles, he has changed uniforms seven times the past five years. There is probably a good chance he could be pitching for another team by game time.
Ponson is the third Aruban native to play in the majors. Unfortunately for him, he will probably have a better chance of finding Natalee Holloway than he will finding outs with this up-and-coming Rangers team.

The story of the year has to be Texas outfielder Josh Hamilton. Has there ever been a more deceptive losing effort than Hamilton at the Home Run Derby? I actually read an article from a major newspaper recently that briefly referred to him as the "most recent home run champ." He was the toast of the town on that evening, with the entire stadium chanting his name as he blasted bomb after bomb into the upper decks. Many believe that was Josh’s arriving party. He is certainly in the midst of an amazing season. His 27 home runs are tied for third best in the AL and he leads the entire league in RBI with a whopping 108. That number will certainly grow after this game.

Second baseman Ian Kinsler is another one having a spectacular year. He leads the league in runs scored, crossing the plate 94 times. Michael Young and Milton Bradley round out Texas’ big four. In case these aren’t enough reasons to load up on the over, here are a couple more.

Rangers Ballpark in Arlington has always been known as a hitter’s park. This year is no different. The stadium leads the league in OPS at .850, and game totals there average 12.53 runs! That is an amazing stat. With some of the slugfests that have taken place there this year, Texas fans probably lead the league in next day callouts. That should be an actual stat.

The Rangers’ closer has been C.J. Wilson who has 24 saves, but a 6.02 ERA. That is not a number that you want affiliated with your closer. Sounds like some possible late inning drama to me. Eddie Guardado may have even supplanted him as the team closer. Even Mariano Rivera, in the middle of another dominating season for New York, is questionable with back spasms.

Given all of these factors, if you still decide to wager on the under, you are a sadist. Say no to pain, and enjoy what promises to be an explosive game.

[Willie Bee]

Manny, Los Angeles Dodgers -110 to slug past St. Louis Cardinals

Game Time: 08/06/2008 08:15 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

The Dodgers' lineup has been revitalized with the addition of slugger Manny Ramirez. Lay it on Derek Lowe and Los Angeles tonight when they visit the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Los Angeles Dodgers, behind a new look offense that features All-Star Manny Ramirez, look like viable wagering options tonight as they prepare to tee off against the Cardinals' Joel Pineiro (3-5, 5.04 ERA). The native of Puerto Rico has looked bad in his last four starts, allowing 10 hits each time out while garnering a ugly 8.31 ERA.

Meanwhile his pitching opponent, right-hander Derek Lowe (8-9, 3.70), is 3-1 in his last five starts along with a stable 3.06 ERA, and despite a sub-.500 record this season, almost always gives his team a chance of victory. The Dearborn, Michigan, native's biggest problem during his current campaign has been run support; however, with the red-hot bat of Ramirez backing him, I am predicting that problem will be put to rest.

Final Notes & Key Trends: Ramirez in his career vs Pineiro is 11-for-26 (.423 BA). Play on LA.

Free Pick: Dodgers -110

[Willie Bee]

NY Yankees -126 at Texas Rangers

Game Time: 08/06/2008 08:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

After dropping the first two in this series, the New York Yankees look to get back in the win column behind Sidney Ponson who has added incentive to top the Texas Rangers tonight.

Our Wednesday night MLB selection is on the New York Yankees on the road in the Lone Star State over the Texas Rangers.

It can't get much more daunting than the situation for Texas' young right-handed starter Tommy Hunter. Just barely 22-years-old and still in his first professional season, Hunter will step to the mound tonight to face the likes of Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, and Johnny Damon in only his second-ever major league start. It was originally thought that Hunter would be a one-start pitcher getting a spot start for the injured Eric Hurley. That first start was less-than-inspiring, but Hurley's injury has since landed him on the DL so Hunter will remain in the rotation, at least for now.

Unlike the Yankees, injuries to Texas players this season have not been earth-shattering as this is a team that realistically is still in rebuilding mode and never really thought it would compete in 2008. But for the mighty Bronx Bombers, the multiple injuries they've suffered so far in '08 have put a serious crimp in their plans to once again appear in the post-season. And now, you can add Joba Chaberlain to the list of walking wounded as he has developed a potentially serious shoulder injury.

So, it appears that the most unlikely of regular AL starters, Sidney Ponson, will remain in the Yankee rotation for the foreseeable future as the combination of his strong performances and the growing list of Yankee pitching injuries more or less guarantees him a job unless he totally implodes on the mound.

Even with the Rangers' win on Tuesday, New York is still 21-8 in the last 29 meetings of these two teams and 19-8 in the last 27 in Arlington. Take the Yankees.

Free Pick: Yankees -126

[Willie Bee]

Take Twins -120 at Seattle Mariners

Game Time: 08/06/2008 04:40 PM -
By: Dave Cokin | playbook.com

Minnesota's Nick Blackburn has tossed five quality outings in his last six starts, and this Seattle lineup should not present a problem for him. Take the Twins at the Mariners.

Minnesota rookie Nick Blackburn has had the occasional rough spot, but most of those bad outings have been against the big time offenses.

Blackburn has done really well against the softer lineups and he gets one here against the Seattle Mariners. I can't say there's much hesitation in trying to beat Seattle's Jared Washburn, and it's a big game for the road team. The Twins are the choice.

Free Pick: Twins -120

[Willie Bee]

Danks, Chicago White Sox -105 vs. Detroit Tigers

Game Time: 08/06/2008 06:10 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

Detroit is 0-6 in Justin Verlander's last six starts in the Windy City while Chicago is 5-2 in John Danks' last seven starts. Win with the White Sox tonight vs. the Tigers.

After last night's 10-8 loss, the Tigers are 7-22 in their last 29 games as an underdog. Detroit is now 6-22 in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning record and 2-11 in their last 13 overall vs. a team with a winning record.

The Tigers are 2-6 in Justin Verlander's last eight starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Tigers are 3-9 in his last 12 road starts.

Chicago is 5-0 in their last five games as a home dog. The White Sox are 38-18 in their last 56 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Chicago has won five of John Danks' last seven starts and the ChiSox are 8-3 in his last 11 as an underdog. The Tigers are 0-6 in Verlander's last six starts in Chicago. Play on Chicago.

Free Pick: White Sox -105

[Willie Bee]

6789

NY Yankees -125 over Texas Rangers

Game Time: 08/06/2008 08:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Sidney Ponson hurled seven shutout innings vs. the Angels last out, only to get no decision. Look for the Yankees to support him better tonight vs. Tommy Hunter, thus getting some revenge vs. Texas here.

The New York Yankees wasted a gem by Sidney Ponson while losing 1-0 to the Los Angeles Angels last week, but look for them to give him better support as they try and avoid a sweep at the hands of the Texas Rangers tonight.

Ponson tossed seven scoreless innings vs. the Angels, marking the fourth time in six starts since returning to the Yankees that he has allowed three runs or less. In fact, this was also the third time in this stretch that Ponson allowed one run or less.

Ponson also has some added incentive here, pitching at Texas for the first time since the Rangers released him earlier this season. He did allow three runs or less in four of his six starts in this stadium before his release.

The Rangers counter with young Tommy Hunter, who was hit hard while allowing six earned runs and eight hits in just five innings in his first major league start vs. the Toronto Blue Jays. If Hunter struggled so badly vs. the normally punchless Jays, what do you expect from him vs. this Yankees lineup in his second start in the big leagues?

We do not think it will be pretty, so look for the Yankees to salvage a win in this series here.

Free Pick: Yankees -125