Front Page Picks (Tue., Aug 5)

Willie Bee · 08-05-08, 11:57 AM

Minnesota Twins -125 at Mariners

Game Time: 08/05/2008 10:10 PM -
By: Lee Kostroski | covers.com

After dropping the series opener last night, the Twins should be poised to get back to their winning ways tonight when Minnesota takes on R.A. Dickey and the Seattle Mariners.

The Twins crushed Tim Wakefield earlier this season, posting seven runs in less than three innings. Facing another knuckleball pitcher should be a welcome sight in Seattle.

The Mariners are just 4-15 in games that R. A. Dickey has pitched in and just 3-7 when he starts. Dickey has allowed 14 runs over his last three starts and at home he is 0-4 with a 4.78 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP. Seattle is also just 15-20 in games decided in the bullpen and facing one of the top hitting teams in baseball will be a difficult situation for Dickey and the Mariners.

The Twins are 11-6 in games that Scott Baker has started this season and 6-2 in his last eight outings. The Twins have won three of his last four road starts and he has strong overall numbers with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. Minnesota also owns one of the strongest bullpens in the American League. Seattle is hitting just .251 against right-handed pitching at home and facing Baker will be a difficult challenge.

The Twins are 23-7 in the last 30 games as a favorite and this is still a cheap price for a team that quietly has one of the best records in the AL against a team with the worst record in AL. Seattle is just 21-34 at home this season and the Twins have won four of the last six road series. The road team actually won seven of nine meetings between these teams last season so the Twins should be able to deliver the victory despite long travel.

Free Pick: Twins -125

Willie Bee · 08-05-08, 11:58 AM

Beckett, Boston Red Sox -165 at Kansas City Royals

Game Time: 08/05/2008 08:10 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | covers.com

Boston let one get away from them last night in a 4-3 loss to Kansas City. Tonight they send Josh Beckett to the mound looking to bounce back against the Royals.

For Boston, losses like last night are not going to send this team back to the World Series. Granted, it was on the road but nonetheless, these are the games that need to be won if the Red Sox are going to be making a run at Tampa Bay in the American League East.

The loss comes after a home sweep over the A’s so it was a big momentum killer as well. Even though they have struggled on the road, the Red Sox are 27-9 in their last 36 road games against a team with a losing home record.

The Royals are streaking again, this time in the good way as they have won seven of their last eight games. How long can this continue? It is a good bet that it ends here as they are finally going up against a top quality pitcher. Kansas City remains under .500 at home and a lot of that can be attributed to the pitching as well as its season long issues. The Royals have a 4.58 ERA on the season which is fifth worst in all of baseball. The pitching has been solid of late, but that ends tonight.

Kansas City goes with Brian Bannister who has been pitching extremely poorly over the last three months. He has gone six straight starts without a quality outing, posting a dreadful 8.19 ERA over that span. Bannister has been much better at home but he is facing a team that has hurt him twice. He is 0-2 with an 8.73 ERA in two starts against the Red Sox, one of which occurred this season. The Royals are 3-8 in Bannister’s last 11 starts as an underdog.

Boston counters with Josh Beckett and things have not been going well for him either. The good thing is that he is capable of coming out of his slump at anytime and this is a great spot for it to happen. He has a 3.44 ERA on the road to go along with a solid 1.16 WHIP. He had tossed four straight quality starts before running into the Angels, who have now roughed him up twice over his last four outings. Boston is 20-8 in Beckett’s last 28 starts as a road favorite. Play Boston for 1½ units.

Free Pick: Red Sox -165

Willie Bee · 08-05-08, 11:59 AM

Big Hurt, Oakland A's +118 to pluck Toronto Blue Jays

Game Time: 08/05/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

The road team has held the advantage in this series this year, and Oakland is 7-1 in their last eight at Toronto's Rogers Centre. The A's are the play at the Blue Jays.

Our Tuesday night MLB selection is on the Oakland Athletics north of the border over the Toronto Blue Jays.

With the continuing injury to starting pitcher Dustin McGowan, the Jays will continue to give a look to rookie right-hander Scott Richmond. The fact that Richmond is 29-years-old and getting his second ever start in the majors should tell you something about him as a potential long-term prospect for the Jays.

Richmond is certainly not one of Toronto's top prospects by any stretch; and in fact, in the minors he never pitched above the AA level. In his first start in the bigs last week, Richmond turned in a less-than-inspiring performance, giving up seven hits and three earned runs in slightly more than five innings.

Even with the Jays winning Monday night's game, the road team has dominated this series this season, with the visitors taking five of the seven games. The A's in particular have used the road to their advantage lately against this Blue Jays team. In their last eight meetings at Toronto's Rogers Centre, the Athletics have won seven, with last night's victory by Toronto the Blue Jays' first at home over Oakland since August of 2006. Take the A's.

Free Pick: Athletics +118

Willie Bee · 08-05-08, 12:00 PM

Cleveland Indians, Tampa Bay Rays stay Under 9

Game Time: 08/05/2008 07:10 PM -
By: Ron Raymond | phoenixsports.com

The Under has cashed in Cleveland's last four games and is 22-10-2 for the Tribe against AL East opponents. Play Under when the Tampa Bay Rays host the Indians.

Today’s baseball pick will be the Under 9.0 (-130) between the Cleveland Indians and Rays in Tampa Bay.

The Indians have been involved in some low-scoring games of late, as the Under is now 4-0 in their last four contests, and they send Fausto Carmona to the hill this evening vs. Edwin Jackson. The Under is 22-10-2 for Cleveland in their last 35 games at home or away vs. AL East opponents.

Furthermore, the Under is 6-3-1 when Cleveland travels to Tampa Bay in their last 10 games and the last 4 games in Tampa Bay have gone Under the posted total.

Here’s a great system on the season that backs up our Under selection tonight. Whenever you have a -120 to -140 home favorite this season playing under these current situations:

During a night game;
Vs. right-handed pitchers;
Coming off a single loss;
Coming off a loss in Game 1 of a series;

The Under is 17-2-0 for the home faves in this role this season.

Free Pick: Indians-Rays Under 9 (-130)

Willie Bee · 08-05-08, 12:01 PM

Pettitte, NY Yankees -154 at Rangers

Game Time: 08/05/2008 08:05 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

Desperate for a win after dropping six of their last nine, the New York Yankees turn to veteran southpaw Andy Pettitte to right the ship Tuesday on the road at the Texas Rangers.

The New York Yankees (61-51) enter into this road tilt against the Texas Rangers (59-54) in search of some consistency as they continue their run for a postseason appearance. Yesterday in Game 1 of this series, the Yanks ended a 10-game winning streak here in Arlington with a 9-5 loss. New York has now lost six of their last nine overall after coming out on fire with an eight-game winning streak after the All-Star break.

Despite their current inefficiencies, I expect the Zoo Crew will get back on track today as they send one of their most reliable starters, Andy Pettitte ( 12-8, 4.18 ERA), out to hill. I know the Yankees veteran hurler is off an ugly outing last time out, allowing nine runs on a season-high 11 hits in a 12-6 loss to the Angels; however, because of that dismal appearance you can bet the southpaw will be primed and very motivated for a bounce-back effort. It must be noted that the Yankee hurler was 7-2 along with a 2.11 ERA in his nine starts prior to the above-mentioned debacle.

Meanwhile the Texas Rangers will return fire with rookie lefty Matt Harrison (2-2, 7.40), who will be going against the Yankees for the first time in his career. Facing the Bronx Bombers is almost never a good venture for a young pitcher, especially one that has seemed very vulnerable of late. The former Carolina League thrower is on a current run that has seen him go 1-2 while garnering an ugly 9.35 ERA in his last four overall starts. Needless to say, he could easily end up as cannon fodder for a hungry Yankee offense in this spot.

The Yankees have to turn to things around in a hurry if they have any hopes of playing in October, and because of this sense of urgency, they become a dangerous opponent for any team right now.

Final Notes & Key Trends: The Yankees are 21-7 in the last 28 meetings in this series. New York is 11-4 in Pettitte's last 15 starts as a road favorite. The Rangers are 1-5 in their last six games vs. a left-handed starter and have lost seven of their last nine as home underdogs of +125 to +150. Play on New York.

Free Pick: Yankees -154

Willie Bee · 08-05-08, 12:02 PM

Minnesota Twins -125 to knuckle down at Seattle Mariners

Game Time: 08/05/2008 10:10 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

Minnesota came into this series on a roll and looks to get back on track after taking a defeat last night. Take the Twins Tuesday when they play the Mariners in Seattle.

The Minnesota Twins take on the Mariners in Game 2 of this three-game series tonight when Scott Baker battles knuckleballer R.A. Dickey in Seattle.

Aside from being in rotten current KW form with eight walks and five strikeouts in his last three stars, Dickey owns a sky-high 7.61 ERA in his home starts this season. Enter Baker who is in solid current form while cashing in 11 of his 17 team starts this season.

With the Twins scoring runs on a consistent basis, look for Baker to improve to 5-1 on the road in August here this evening.

Free Pick: Twins -125

Willie Bee · 08-05-08, 12:03 PM

Blue Jays -128 to top Oakland A's

Game Time: 08/05/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

Ace Roy Halladay held Oakland's bats in check last night, and the Blue Jays should make it two in a row over the A's Tuesday evening at home in Toronto's Rogers Centre.

Oakland is 1-11 in their last 12 road games. The A's are 8-21 in their last 29 games overall. Oakland is 8-25 in their last 33 games as an underdog. In their last 15 games vs. AL East opponents the A's are 2-13.

The A's have lost Greg Smith's last three starts. Oakland is 1-7 in the left-hander's last eight starts as an underdog.

Toronto is 11-4 in their last 15 home games. In their last 12 games as a favorite they are 10-2. Toronto is 6-1 in their last seven vs. a team with a losing record.

The Jays' Scott Richmond will be making his second career start and he looked pretty good in his first one. Play on Toronto.

Free Pick: Blue Jays -128

Willie Bee · 08-05-08, 12:04 PM

Chalk up Rays -130 over Indians

Game Time: 08/05/2008 07:10 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Rays are 43-17 at home, and they are in the rare role here of trying to avenge a home loss last night. Carmona has not looked good since coming back while Jackson has been solid, so take Tampa.

We cashed a ticket with the Cleveland Indians as an underdog with Cliff Lee last night, but we look for the Tampa Bay Rays to get some payback tonight.

After all, the Rays are still an amazing 43-17 at home this season, so they should bounce back well vs. right-hander Fausto Carmona, who has not looked good in his two comeback starts off of the Disabled List. Granted, his second start back was better, but he still allowed four runs in 6.1 innings with only three strikeouts. He is facing a Rays lineup that has hit much better vs. right-handers than left-handers over the last 10 games.

Edwin Jackson may be having his best season in the major leagues for Tampa Bay, and he has now allowed three runs or less in six of his last seven starts, allowing two runs or less in five of those outings. He is also a perfect three for three in Quality Starts vs. the Indians, with all three of those career starts coming last season when Cleveland was better offensively.

Finally, the Rays have the far superior bullpen here, which is significant because we do not expect Carmona to work as deeply into this contest in his third start back as Lee did last night.

Free Pick: Rays -130