Tell me why this will lose

[FreeFall]

Im thinking about going little larger than normal on this game and would like others opinions.

TX/Rangers O12, which I can't figure out anything wrong with this. Thats why it scares me.

ryan? LT? pico?

[Crayzee]

the biggest reason it could fail is because it SHOULD hit

i'm probably going to bet it over also but i don't see any reason to bet more than a normal unit size
check the lineups also make sure big hitters are not sitting

[ryanXL977]

i think it will hit
my only question is will the jays get 6 runs?

[LT Profits]

This seems like a popular play, but 12 is an enormous total for an MLB game. In fact, it may be the highest total I've ever seen outside of Colorado in the pre-humidor days. Big PASS for me.

[FreeFall]

so you pass on the reason alone that the total is a high number compared to other mlb totals? Weird logic.

[BigOrangeTitans]

How can you POSSIBLY take an over 12 in ANY baseball game??? Let alone make it a LARGE wager?

Look at the history of a total that high and you will see why its a horrid bet. From a pure edge point of view, you cannot possibly have this capped at better than a 50% win rate, and thats being generous. Why in the HELL would you bet that, let alone bet it large?

[LT Profits]

BOT hit on the logic FreeFall, it is virtually impossible to find a decided edge on a total this high. That doesn't mean it won't win tonight, but it is not a bet that I would make consistemtly and all I care about is the long term.

[FreeFall]

thanks guys. Thats why I come here and ask

I put a little bit on it just to entertain me, but otherwise I'll enjoy my +12 unit day.

[Dashwood Clipper]

There was an O/U of 12 at Wrigley this season, Estes was the starter for the visiting Padres. Marquis started for the Cubs. Final score was 4-3 San Diego.

[BuddyBear]

Texas really struggles agaisnt LHP. There is one reason....

[bigugly]

I found an edge today. I have my play posted for the first 5 innings.
TOR/TEX OVER 6.5 -120 Purcey/Mendoza

I don't bother looking at full games, though I doubt it has the value I found in the first 5.

[BigOrangeTitans]

I dont care if you have 18 Barry bonds' at the plate against all triple A pitchers, I will NEVER take an over that is 12 in a MLB game. That is completely and utterly beyond me how you can prove it would win more than 50% of the time.

[smitch124]

ya for over 12 they need a 3-point line or something...

[bigugly]

I think Texas will get to Purcey....in the meantime I hope Toronto keeps up the good work.

[awholelottalumps]

I had $300 on the Pitt/Colorado game over 11.5 earlier this year and they had 8 runs after 2 and then nothing.The final was 7-1.Talk about being pissed off.I think your in good shape,but like in my case you just never know.I guess that's why they call it gambling.

[FreeFall]

I dont care if you have 18 Barry bonds' at the plate against all triple A pitchers, I will NEVER take an over that is 12 in a MLB game. That is completely and utterly beyond me how you can prove it would win more than 50% of the time.

Im not saying betting every 12 game in the long run. I just chose this one because of the matchup...

[ryanXL977]

when people say texas struggles against lefties, which lefties are oyu talking about? unit? pettite?

because PURCEY ****IGN SUCKS and texas can handle a lefty like that

[bigugly]

Texas may not hit lefties as well as righties, but they definitely do not suck against lefties. The only reason I was considering not making this play was because of Milton Bradley's status. Anyway, my 5 inning play has hit...good luck to the rest of you on your full games.

[ryanXL977]

i think it will hit
my only question is will the jays get 6 runs?

i think that was pretty well put by ryan, if i may be so humble

[wallym]

just another amazing job by the linemakers...12 runs exactly...

[FreeFall]

ya same with the other sun night game. They seem to hit a lot of pushes on the sunday night games more so than day. Go figure b/c more people bet it. Just like MNF.

[bigugly]

Pushes make the big bucks!

[chipski]

it was 11.5 overnight ..