Manny makes Dodgers instant NL West favorites
It seems so appropriate when you stop and think about Manny being Manny now in La-La Land. After years of rumored trades involving their resident flake and malcontent, the Boston Red Sox finally pulled the trigger and shipped Manny Ramirez west to the Dodgers in a three-team deal involving the Pirates. And Ramirez wasn't the only star to get traded Thursday as Ken Griffey Jr. also has a new address.
Well, that was an interesting Thursday afternoon. Manny Ramirez got traded. So did Ken Griffey, Jr. Not much else happened, but when two surefire Hall of Famers change teams, you don’t need volume.
Without further ado, let’s evaluate Thursday’s major deadline deals from a betting odds standpoint.
Los Angeles Dodgers receive: Manny Ramirez
Boston Red Sox receive: Jason Bay
Pittsburgh Pirates receive: Andy LaRoche, Brandon Moss, Craig Hansen and Bryan Morris
Tampa Bay Rays receive: Bupkis
The Rays come out as the biggest “losers” in the Ramirez trade because they reportedly had a deal all but done that would have sent Jeff Niemann and Reid Brignac to Pittsburgh for Bay. That’s when the Red Sox swept in and revived an earlier attempt to swing a three-way deal for Ramirez that had involved the Pirates and Florida Marlins. Keeping Bay out of Tampa Bay was a major plus for Boston in the American League East race.
Ramirez (.926 OPS) joins the Dodgers and immediately makes them the favorites in the National League West. However, it remains to be seen which of the current Dodger outfielders will get to ride the pine. Manager Joe Torre has given Andruw Jones (.518 OPS) and Juan Pierre (.641 OPS) way too much playing time already. This organization has been treating Matt Kemp (.819 OPS) like dirt and apparently shopped him at the trade deadline. I believe the Dodgers are going to sabotage their betting value by taking Kemp and Andre Ethier (.776 OPS) out of the equation instead of Jones and Pierre.
The Red Sox come out roughly even with Bay (.894 OPS) instead of Ramirez. That enhances Boston’s value, since the betting public loves Manny and knows little about Bay. The unheralded Canadian has been playing outside of the limelight at PNC Park. At the same time, the Pirates could be a better team right away. LaRoche (.641 OPS in 27 games) was a top prospect for Los Angeles, but wasn’t given much of a chance in their veteran-happy lineup. Moss was a second-tier Red Sox prospect with a solid .799 OPS in 34 games this year. The Pirates should at least outperform their low expectations following this trade.
Chicago White Sox receive: Ken Griffey, Jr.
Cincinnati Reds receive: Nick Masset, Danny Richar
Sadly, this trade just isn’t that important. Griffey hasn’t fallen apart as badly as Jones, but his .787 OPS is barely above the .784 figure the White Sox are putting up as a team. Worse, it’s being said Griffey only accepted the trade on the condition he would play center field. Once a premium defensive player, Griffey has been relegated to right field the last couple of years in Cincinnati, and he was -4 in FRAR (Fielding Runs Above Replacement) for the Reds in 2008. On the whole, this is a minor upgrade for Chicago at best and lowers their betting value in the end.
The Reds gave up little in the way of prospects, and they have blue-chipper Jay Bruce (.727 OPS, zero FRAR in 57 games) ready to take over for Griffey. Like the Pirates, Cincinnati should be roughly as good/bad as before the trade, enhancing their value from a betting perspective.
Weekend Betting Preview – Diamondbacks at Dodgers
Game 2: Friday, 10:40 p.m.
ARI: Randy Johnson
LAD: Clayton Kershaw
Game 3: Saturday, 10:10 p.m.
ARI: Yusmeiro Petit
LAD: Hiroki Kuroda
Game 4: Sunday, 4:10 p.m.
ARI: Doug Davis
LAD: Jason Johnson
Arizona took the first game of this series on Thursday night, outlasting Los Angeles 2-1 to improve to 56-52, including 8-2 over the past 10 games. Ramirez is expected to make his Dodgers debut against Randy Johnson (4.58 ERA, 4.24 xFIP), whom Manny has lit up for a .991 OPS over the past 15 years. The Snakes were -120 favorites on the early line with a total of 7.5 runs.
The other Johnson in this series is Jason Johnson, the 10-year veteran right-hander who bounced around with three clubs in 2006 before going to Japan last year. He pitched well for AAA-Las Vegas (3.82 ERA) in his return and was called up earlier this month. Johnson has since replaced Chan Ho Park in the rotation. His first start was a success: zero runs allowed over six innings in Tuesday’s 2-0 win over San Francisco
It seems so appropriate when you stop and think about Manny being Manny now in La-La Land. After years of rumored trades involving their resident flake and malcontent, the Boston Red Sox finally pulled the trigger and shipped Manny Ramirez west to the Dodgers in a three-team deal involving the Pirates. And Ramirez wasn't the only star to get traded Thursday as Ken Griffey Jr. also has a new address.
Well, that was an interesting Thursday afternoon. Manny Ramirez got traded. So did Ken Griffey, Jr. Not much else happened, but when two surefire Hall of Famers change teams, you don’t need volume.
Without further ado, let’s evaluate Thursday’s major deadline deals from a betting odds standpoint.
Los Angeles Dodgers receive: Manny Ramirez
Boston Red Sox receive: Jason Bay
Pittsburgh Pirates receive: Andy LaRoche, Brandon Moss, Craig Hansen and Bryan Morris
Tampa Bay Rays receive: Bupkis
The Rays come out as the biggest “losers” in the Ramirez trade because they reportedly had a deal all but done that would have sent Jeff Niemann and Reid Brignac to Pittsburgh for Bay. That’s when the Red Sox swept in and revived an earlier attempt to swing a three-way deal for Ramirez that had involved the Pirates and Florida Marlins. Keeping Bay out of Tampa Bay was a major plus for Boston in the American League East race.
Ramirez (.926 OPS) joins the Dodgers and immediately makes them the favorites in the National League West. However, it remains to be seen which of the current Dodger outfielders will get to ride the pine. Manager Joe Torre has given Andruw Jones (.518 OPS) and Juan Pierre (.641 OPS) way too much playing time already. This organization has been treating Matt Kemp (.819 OPS) like dirt and apparently shopped him at the trade deadline. I believe the Dodgers are going to sabotage their betting value by taking Kemp and Andre Ethier (.776 OPS) out of the equation instead of Jones and Pierre.
The Red Sox come out roughly even with Bay (.894 OPS) instead of Ramirez. That enhances Boston’s value, since the betting public loves Manny and knows little about Bay. The unheralded Canadian has been playing outside of the limelight at PNC Park. At the same time, the Pirates could be a better team right away. LaRoche (.641 OPS in 27 games) was a top prospect for Los Angeles, but wasn’t given much of a chance in their veteran-happy lineup. Moss was a second-tier Red Sox prospect with a solid .799 OPS in 34 games this year. The Pirates should at least outperform their low expectations following this trade.
Chicago White Sox receive: Ken Griffey, Jr.
Cincinnati Reds receive: Nick Masset, Danny Richar
Sadly, this trade just isn’t that important. Griffey hasn’t fallen apart as badly as Jones, but his .787 OPS is barely above the .784 figure the White Sox are putting up as a team. Worse, it’s being said Griffey only accepted the trade on the condition he would play center field. Once a premium defensive player, Griffey has been relegated to right field the last couple of years in Cincinnati, and he was -4 in FRAR (Fielding Runs Above Replacement) for the Reds in 2008. On the whole, this is a minor upgrade for Chicago at best and lowers their betting value in the end.
The Reds gave up little in the way of prospects, and they have blue-chipper Jay Bruce (.727 OPS, zero FRAR in 57 games) ready to take over for Griffey. Like the Pirates, Cincinnati should be roughly as good/bad as before the trade, enhancing their value from a betting perspective.
Weekend Betting Preview – Diamondbacks at Dodgers
Game 2: Friday, 10:40 p.m.
ARI: Randy Johnson
LAD: Clayton Kershaw
Game 3: Saturday, 10:10 p.m.
ARI: Yusmeiro Petit
LAD: Hiroki Kuroda
Game 4: Sunday, 4:10 p.m.
ARI: Doug Davis
LAD: Jason Johnson
Arizona took the first game of this series on Thursday night, outlasting Los Angeles 2-1 to improve to 56-52, including 8-2 over the past 10 games. Ramirez is expected to make his Dodgers debut against Randy Johnson (4.58 ERA, 4.24 xFIP), whom Manny has lit up for a .991 OPS over the past 15 years. The Snakes were -120 favorites on the early line with a total of 7.5 runs.
The other Johnson in this series is Jason Johnson, the 10-year veteran right-hander who bounced around with three clubs in 2006 before going to Japan last year. He pitched well for AAA-Las Vegas (3.82 ERA) in his return and was called up earlier this month. Johnson has since replaced Chan Ho Park in the rotation. His first start was a success: zero runs allowed over six innings in Tuesday’s 2-0 win over San Francisco
