Front Page Picks (Fri., Jul 25)

[Willie Bee]

Chicago White Sox +110 with Floyd to claw Tigers

Game Time: 07/25/2008 07:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Gavin Floyd may have been an All-Star Game oversight with his 10-6 record and 3.52 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Nate Robertson has been horrible for the Tigers, so go Sox.

Gavin Floyd has quietly put together an All-Star caliber season for the Chicago White Sox, and he gives them the edge as underdogs tonight vs. the struggling Nate Robertson of the Detroit Tigers.

Floyd has gone 10-6 with a nice 3.52 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 117.2 innings, and a case can be made that he has been the best pitcher on the Sox staff this season, or at least on par with Mark Buehrle. More importantly, Floyd has been brilliant vs. the Tigers in his brief career, tossing five consecutive Quality Starts against them since last year including allowing a total of three runs and seven hits in 13.1 innings over two starts this year! Should Floyd be in need of relief, the White Sox bullpen ranks sixth in the majors with a collective 3.29 ERA.

Meanwhile, Nate Robertson has been terrible this year and is not getting any better, and he simply cannot be trusted as a favorite. He is 608 with a 5.69 ERA and 1.54 WHIP for the whole season and he has a 6.28 ERA in his last three starts. He even failed to last three innings in his last outing vs. the Baltimore Orioles after the Tigers had staked him to a 6-0 lead.

Finally the Tigers, as a team, are just 2-6 the last eight times Robertson has started against Chicago, and given the year that Floyd is having, look for that pattern to continue.

Free Pick: White Sox +110

[Willie Bee]

Saunders, Angels -132 at Orioles

Game Time: 07/25/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Bob Harvey | bobharveysports.com

The Halos have quietly moved to the top of the MLB ladder with the best record in baseball. They'll add to that tonight with Joe Saunders on the mound against the Orioles.

The Angels have a lot of plusses on their side heading into tonight’s game in Baltimore. Los Halos own the majors' best road record at 31-18. They’ve won two straight and seven of their last eight. They lead second place Oakland by 10 games in the AL West, they’ve got the best closer in baseball and tonight’s starting pitcher, Joe Saunders, has never lost to the Orioles. How’s that for impressive?

Saunders, who is 12-5 on the year with a 3.05 ERA, grew up in Springfield, Virginia about 60 miles from Camden Yards. He grew up as a huge Orioles fan and just happens to have a 3-0 record against them.

Baltimore scored just two runs in two losses to Toronto on Thursday and have lost three in a row. The Orioles will go with Brian Burress against the Halos. He’s 7-6 this season with a 5.02 ERA. The lefty fared well last year against the Angels going 2-0 with an ERA under 3.00.

The Angels are the cream of the crop in baseball right now. They’ve been getting it done with pitching up to this point and now their offense is starting to show signs of life. That figures to be “double trouble” for the Birds can get it done with pitching.

Free Pick: Angels -132

[Willie Bee]

NY Mets on the run line vs. Cardinals

Game Time: 07/25/2008 07:10 PM -
By: Alex Smart | covers.com

With the Mets taking two of three from the Phillies while the Cardinals were swept at home by the Brewers, New York has the momentum at home in Shea Stadium vs. St. Louis.

The New York Mets (55-47) enter into this series against the struggling St. Louis Cardinals off a key 3-1 win against the Phillies yesterday, as they took two of three in that series. They now look to extend their lead in the NL East standings with another victory in this spot.

The Cards (57-47) are off being swept in a four-games series at home against the Milwaukee Brewers and could be in for another rough night as they depend on a rookie pitcher (Mitchell Boggs 3-1, 6.59 ERA) that is just now returning from a minor league assignment. It is important to mention that Boggs was absolutely crushed by the Mets in his last major league start on July 3, allowing 11 runs, including 10 earned, and 10 hits in just six innings of less than stellar work.

Meanwhile the Mets will return fire with the very capable Mike Pelfry (8-6, 3.81 ERA) who is 6-0 with a 2.70 ERA in his last 10 outings. The right-hander in those 10 trips to the hill has allowed two or fewer earned runs in seven appearances. Pelfry received the decision the last time he faced the Mets, in the aforementioned beat-down win against today's pitching opponent, Boggs.

The Mets have really been playing some strong baseball at home of late, winning nine of their last 10 at Shea Stadium while out-scoring their opponents in those wins by an average of 3.8 RPG. I am expecting a repeat performance against the Cards.

Final Notes & Key Trends: It is interesting to note that in the last 20 meetings in this head-to-head series, 18 tilts have been decided by multiple runs. The Mets have garnered 12 wins during that span by an average of 4+ RPG.

Free Pick: Mets -1½ (+115)

[Willie Bee]

Toronto Blue Jays -160 fly by Mariners

Game Time: 07/25/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

The Blue Jays have been tough at home in the Rogers Centre this season while the Mariners have struggled everywhere in '08. Take Toronto when they host Seattle on Friday night.

Our Friday night MLB selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays at home in the Rogers Centre over the Seattle Mariners.

Despite Toronto veteran right-hander John Parrish having had two quality starts at home for the Jays, his time in the rotation may be short as the team would like to promote young prospect David Purcey from AAA. Parrish didn't help his cause in his last start on the road against Tampa; however he should have a much easier time of it tonight in front of the home crowd against the worst team in the AL and a veteran right-handed starter (Miguel Batista) who is 4-11 with a 6.89 ERA.

The Mariners aren't quite sure what to do with Batista as they have shuffled him in and out of the rotation at various times, and Batista even picked up a save in his first relief appearance of the season while regular closer J.J. Putz was recovering from an injury. Perhaps they should keep him in a relief role as opponents are batting only .172 against him in that capacity but he is getting knocked around pretty good as a member of the rotation (.315 BA against when starting).

Despite Toronto's overall mediocre showing this season, they have been very tough at home going 27-20 so far at the Rogers Centre. Take the Jays.

Free Pick: Blue Jays -160

[Willie Bee]

Angels -130 at Baltimore Orioles

Game Time: 07/25/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

The Angels have taken 12 of the last 16 meetings with the Orioles, and they will make it a lucky 13 of 17 Friday at Camden Yards. Hang with the Halos on the road in Baltimore.

When the Angels take on the Orioles in the first of a three-game series in Baltimore Friday night, it will be with Joe Saunders battling Brian Burres.

Saunders has cashed in 13 of his last 19 road starts. He's also 5-1 in his career team starts and 8-2 in his career team starts on Friday. On the flip side, Burres is just 2-4 during July and has dropped each of his last three home starts.

With that, look for the Halos to improve to 13-4 in this series against the Birds here tonight.

Free Pick: Angels -130

[Willie Bee]

Arizona Diamondbacks -134 behind Haren at San Francisco Giants

Game Time: 07/25/2008 10:15 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

Dan Haren gives the Diamondbacks a huge advantage on the mound tonight in San Francisco. Arizona is the play Friday when the open a set at the Giants in AT&T Park.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have struggled on the road this season while the San Francisco Giants have struggled at home.

The Diamondbacks are 5-2 in their last seven games as a favorite. Arizona sends Dan Haren to the mound tonight and they have won seven of his last nine starts. The D-Backs have won four of his last five road starts. In Haren's last 14 starts as a favorite, Arizona is 10-4.

San Francisco is 4-9 in their last 13 games. In their last 26 games as a home dog they are 5-21. The Giants are 8-18 in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Giants are 1-4 in Jonathan Sanchez' last five home starts.

The pitching edge tonight goes to the Diamondbacks. Play on Arizona.

Free Pick: Diamondbacks -134

[Willie Bee]

Chicago White Sox +115 draw first blood at Detroit Tigers

Game Time: 07/25/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Dave Cokin | covers.com

A big showdown in the AL Central takes place this weekend in Detroit between the White Sox and Tigers. Cash Chicago Friday night behind right-hander Gavin Floyd.

A big series between the Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers gets underway tonight at Comerica Park in Motown.

Detroit is back in the hunt after that terrible start, but Chicago still maintains the lead in the AL Central. The Pale Hose need a better showing from Gavin Floyd tonight, as his control has been a big problem lately. But I like the Sox to have plenty of success against Nate Robertson. The Detroit lefty has been prone to the big inning all season, and the White Sox are pretty good about putting those crooked numbers on the board.

My choice is the White Sox as road dogs.

Free Pick: White Sox +115

[Willie Bee]

Atlanta Braves +105 to scalp Phils

Game Time: 07/25/2008 07:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Jair Jurrjens has been a pleasant surprise for the Braves while Kyle Kendrick has been a big disappointment for the Phillies. With Kendrick showing no signs of improvement, take the Braves as small dogs.

The visiting Atlanta Braves appear to hold the pitching advantage here with Jair Jurrjens facing Kyle Kendrick of the Philadelphia Phillies, so the Braves get the mild upset call here.

Jurrjens is 9-5, and the Braves are 12-7 as a team in all the games that he has started. This from a squad that is five games under .500 overall at 48-53. Jurrjens has not minded pitching on the road either, as he has a 3.16 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in nine starts away from home, and he has allowed a grand total of one run and 16 hits in 21.2 innings in his last three road starts.

Kendrick may be 8-4 for the Phillies, but that is entirely due to great run support as he has a high 4.87 ERA and a terrible 1.50 WHIP in 109 innings. He is not getting any better either, with a 6.48 ERA and dreadful 1.86 WHIP in his last three starts. It does not help his cause that the Phillies are not playing good baseball right now, as they would be on a five-game losing streak if not for a ninth inning rally in the opener of the Mets series.

Finally, the road team is 7-2 in the nine meeting between these clubs this season.

Free Pick: Braves +105