Mets meltdown puts Phillies atop NL East
It was a classic showdown between two teams tied atop their division when the Mets hosted the Phillies Tuesday night at Shea. And New York held the big edge behind a superb effort from ace Johan Santana, leading 6-2 going into the ninth. But a funny thing happened on the way to the winner's circle as Philadelphia plated six in their final at bat to take an 8-6 triumph, and now the Mets are in revenge mode.
If the Philadelphia Phillies win the National League East division, they might look at July 22 as the pivotal date on the MLB calendar – specifically the ninth inning of Tuesday’s matchup with the New York Mets.
Philadelphia cranked out six runs in the ninth to steal an 8-6 victory at Shea Stadium, cashing in at +154 on the betting odds and once again spoiling a quality start by Johan Santana. This is nothing new for the Mets. They’re 11-10 with their ace on the mound, dropping his last five starts even though Santana allowed just eight runs total during that span.
As you might have guessed, relief pitching has been an issue for the Mets this year. They were 13th in the majors at press time with a 3.85 bullpen ERA; not awful, but likely to rise now that closer Billy Wagner (2.20 ERA, 3.13 xFIP) is on the shelf with muscle spasms in his shoulder. He was unavailable Tuesday night after Santana went eight strong innings; Duaner Sanchez allowed the first three runs of the ninth, then Joe Smith took the loss.
Sanchez and Smith are pretty good pitchers, though, so give the Phillies full credit for Monday’s victory. Their MLB-best relief crew (2.70 ERA) picked up a disappointing first start for Joe Blanton, who gave up five runs in six innings of work. The difference in bullpen quality makes the Phillies a potential value pick anytime they face the Mets – including the second game of this series on Wednesday.
One problem for Philadelphia supporters: Brett Myers. He’s making his return from the DL in Game 2, and he wasn’t exactly tearing up the league with his 5.84 ERA (4.49 xFIP) in 17 starts. The Phillies went 4-13 in those starts and lost 13.08 units. That makes Myers the most unprofitable starting pitcher in the majors.
The Mets counter with John Maine (4.22 ERA, 4.67 xFIP). The righthander was humming along quite nicely during the first three months of the season, but hasn’t made it to the sixth inning in any of his last four starts. Maine allowed five walks in each of his last two appearances; however, the hot-hitting Mets (.847 OPS in July) have bailed Maine out. They salvaged a pair of wins last month to improve to 11-9 with Maine on the mound, enough to stay in the black at 0.29 units. The over is 10-7-3 in those 20 contests.
Philadelphia is hoping Maine stays cold. Current Phillies batters have a combined .674 lifetime OPS against him, but given Maine’s inability to go deep into games, they should have ample opportunity to score against New York’s depleted bullpen. They’d better, because the Mets roster has a .784 OPS against Myers, and the righty won’t have a chance to face the two men he’s had the most success against: Luis Castillo (6-for-34) and Moises Alou (1-for-12), both of whom are injured.
The Mets are -140 favorites for Wednesday’s matchup with a total of nine runs. New York has driven the over to a 49-43-8 record on the season, but the under is 53-46-1 for the Phillies. The under is also 8-2 in the last 10 games at pitcher-friendly Shea. This unsightly ballpark, due for demolition after this season ends, is giving up 87.1 percent of the MLB average number of runs. Wednesday’s wet weather may stifle scoring even further; the Flushing forecast calls for thunder and rain in the evening with winds from the south. That’s right-to-left at Shea, and the under is 11-5 in those conditions this year.
Game time is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. Eastern with ESPN picking up the television coverage.
It was a classic showdown between two teams tied atop their division when the Mets hosted the Phillies Tuesday night at Shea. And New York held the big edge behind a superb effort from ace Johan Santana, leading 6-2 going into the ninth. But a funny thing happened on the way to the winner's circle as Philadelphia plated six in their final at bat to take an 8-6 triumph, and now the Mets are in revenge mode.
If the Philadelphia Phillies win the National League East division, they might look at July 22 as the pivotal date on the MLB calendar – specifically the ninth inning of Tuesday’s matchup with the New York Mets.
Philadelphia cranked out six runs in the ninth to steal an 8-6 victory at Shea Stadium, cashing in at +154 on the betting odds and once again spoiling a quality start by Johan Santana. This is nothing new for the Mets. They’re 11-10 with their ace on the mound, dropping his last five starts even though Santana allowed just eight runs total during that span.
As you might have guessed, relief pitching has been an issue for the Mets this year. They were 13th in the majors at press time with a 3.85 bullpen ERA; not awful, but likely to rise now that closer Billy Wagner (2.20 ERA, 3.13 xFIP) is on the shelf with muscle spasms in his shoulder. He was unavailable Tuesday night after Santana went eight strong innings; Duaner Sanchez allowed the first three runs of the ninth, then Joe Smith took the loss.
Sanchez and Smith are pretty good pitchers, though, so give the Phillies full credit for Monday’s victory. Their MLB-best relief crew (2.70 ERA) picked up a disappointing first start for Joe Blanton, who gave up five runs in six innings of work. The difference in bullpen quality makes the Phillies a potential value pick anytime they face the Mets – including the second game of this series on Wednesday.
One problem for Philadelphia supporters: Brett Myers. He’s making his return from the DL in Game 2, and he wasn’t exactly tearing up the league with his 5.84 ERA (4.49 xFIP) in 17 starts. The Phillies went 4-13 in those starts and lost 13.08 units. That makes Myers the most unprofitable starting pitcher in the majors.
The Mets counter with John Maine (4.22 ERA, 4.67 xFIP). The righthander was humming along quite nicely during the first three months of the season, but hasn’t made it to the sixth inning in any of his last four starts. Maine allowed five walks in each of his last two appearances; however, the hot-hitting Mets (.847 OPS in July) have bailed Maine out. They salvaged a pair of wins last month to improve to 11-9 with Maine on the mound, enough to stay in the black at 0.29 units. The over is 10-7-3 in those 20 contests.
Philadelphia is hoping Maine stays cold. Current Phillies batters have a combined .674 lifetime OPS against him, but given Maine’s inability to go deep into games, they should have ample opportunity to score against New York’s depleted bullpen. They’d better, because the Mets roster has a .784 OPS against Myers, and the righty won’t have a chance to face the two men he’s had the most success against: Luis Castillo (6-for-34) and Moises Alou (1-for-12), both of whom are injured.
The Mets are -140 favorites for Wednesday’s matchup with a total of nine runs. New York has driven the over to a 49-43-8 record on the season, but the under is 53-46-1 for the Phillies. The under is also 8-2 in the last 10 games at pitcher-friendly Shea. This unsightly ballpark, due for demolition after this season ends, is giving up 87.1 percent of the MLB average number of runs. Wednesday’s wet weather may stifle scoring even further; the Flushing forecast calls for thunder and rain in the evening with winds from the south. That’s right-to-left at Shea, and the under is 11-5 in those conditions this year.
Game time is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. Eastern with ESPN picking up the television coverage.
