Front Page Picks (Tue, Jul 22)

[Willie Bee]

Baltimore Orioles +100 to ruin Marcum’s return for Blue Jays

Game Time: 07/22/2008 07:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Shaun Marcum has great key numbers when he went on the Disabled List, but he is a finesse pitcher that should be affected by the layoff. Take Baltimore at home.

Shaun Marcum is making his first start in over a month for the Toronto Blue Jays tonight, and the layoff should affect him vs. the Baltimore Orioles.

Yes, Marcum had an outstanding 2.65 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 98.2 innings at the time that he was shelved, but he is a precision pitcher that is not overpowering, so he becomes more hittable when his location becomes slightly off. That may be exactly the case with the long layoff here.

Now there is no denying that Garrett Olson has underachieved lately. In fact, he has been downright dreadful while going seven consecutive starts without recording a Quality Start. However, the Toronto offense made Radhames Liz look like Cy Young last night after he had allowed 14 earned runs he previous two starts, and at least Olson has demonstrated he has some ability the last two seasons.

The Blue Jays are batting just .245 vs. left-handed pitching this season, and they are averaging only 3.92 runs per game on the road. Look for them to come up short here just as they did in an 8-3 loss last night.

Free Pick: Orioles +100

[Willie Bee]

Back Lohse, Cardinals -135 at Brewers

Game Time: 07/22/2008 08:15 PM -
By: Bob Harvey | bobharveysports.com

Kyle Lohse has been money this season, with the Cardinals winning 11 of his last 12 starts. St. Louis is the play Tuesday night on the road in Milwaukee against the Brewers.

Two streaking teams will send veteran pitchers to the hill as the Brewers and Cardinals continue their series in St. Louis.

The Cards will go with Kyle Lohse who has emerged not only as Tony La Russa’s stopper but also has as one of the top “earners” in the game. Lohse is 12-2, with an ERA of 3.35. St. Louis has garnered 11 wins in Lohse’s last 12 starts. In addition Lohse has allowed just four runs over his past four starts while going seven innings in all of those games.

Milwaukee's Jeff Suppan meanwhile will be activated from the disabled list in time to make the start for the Brewers. “Soup” is 5-6 with a 4.71 ERA but is 4-0 with a 1.48 ERA in four starts against his former team. He limited St. Louis to one run in seven innings of his lone start against them this year, a 5-3 victory May 11 at Miller Park.

If Suppan and the Brew Crew are to make it two straight over the Redbirds, they’ll have to find a way to slow down Albert Pujols who is 10-26 lifetime against Suppan. Troy Glaus will also have to be held in check. Glaus is on a tear. He’s 21-for-40 (.525) with five homers and 12 RBIs during a 10-game hitting streak and 12-for-36 with three homers against Suppan.

Free Pick: Cardinals -135

[Willie Bee]

San Diego Padres -110 behind Peavy at Cincinnati Reds

Game Time: 07/22/2008 07:10 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

After allowing four bombs in his last start, San Diego's Jake Peavy has redemption on his mind tonight in Cincinnati. Play the Padres Tuesday when they take on the Reds.

The San Diego Padres(38-62) will send the ace of their staff, Jake Peavy (7-6, 2.66 ERA,) out to face the Cincinnati Reds (48-52) Tuesday night.

Last year's Cy Young award winner is off one of the most frustrating and humbling efforts of his career, allowing four home runs in a 4-3 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals. Prior to that outing he went 15 straight innings without allowing a run. Now with redemption on his mind, you can bet the star hurler will primed to perform. against a Reds team that he has dominated in his career as is evident by his 5-0 record along with a stingy 2.08 ERA in eight starts, all of which his team has won. He is also 3-0 in four starts here in Great American Ball Park.

The struggling Padres almost always seem to play above-average ball when Peavy is on the hill, and nothing changes today, as they do a rare tee off job on rookie pitcher Johnny Cueto (7-9, 4.92 ERA). The Reds right-hander is off back-to-back lackluster efforts, allowing 10 ER in 12 innings of work.

Final Notes & Key Trends: Peavy has seen his team win 23 of his last 32 road starts against a below .500 team.

Free Pick: Padres -110

[Willie Bee]

Blue Jays -108 at Baltimore Orioles

Game Time: 07/22/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

Toronto's Shaun Marcum makes his return from the DL Tuesday night in Baltimore looking to pick up where he left off in June. The Blue Jays get it done against the Orioles.

The Blue Jays battle the Orioles in Toronto Tuesday night when Shaun Marcum takes on Baltimore's Garrett Olson in the second of this four-game series.

A quick check of current form finds both pitchers on opposite ends of the ladder with Marcum owning a 2.32 ERA in his last five starts as opposed to Olson's 8.23 ERA in his last seven efforts. With Olson having trouble finding the plate of late (10 walks and nine strikeouts his last three starts), look for Marcum to improve to 8-4 in his last 12 road starts here tonight.

Free Pick: Blue Jays -108

[Willie Bee]

Play Detroit Tigers -119 to roar at Kansas City Royals

Game Time: 07/22/2008 08:10 PM -
By: Vernon Croy | 10starpicks.com

The Tigers plated 19 last night in Kansas City, and they're looking for more tonight against Kyle Davies with the Royals 2-4 in his home starts. Detroit on the moneyline.

The Tigers are 8-2 on the road this season when the posted total is 10 to 10½, and Detroit is hitting .287 as a team in night games this season while averaging 5.5 Runs Per Game.

Kansas City's Kyle Davies (3-1, 4.59 ERA) has struggled over his last three starts with an ERA of 7.02 allowing 23 hits and four home runs over just 16.2 innings, and I look for the Tigers' bats to remain hot tonight after putting up 19 runs last night. The Royals are 2-4 when Davies has pitched at home this season and they have lost three of his last four starts.

The Tigers are 7-3 this season when Kenny Rogers (7-6, 4.62 ERA) has started a night game and I look for him to have a solid outing tonight. Take Detroit Tuesday night.

Free Pick: Tigers -119

[Willie Bee]

Rolling the Dice K: Red Sox and Mariners Under 8½

Game Time: 07/22/2008 10:10 PM -
By: Ron Raymond | phoenixsports.com

With Boston's sticks a bit quiet of late, and Daisuke Matsuzaka stingy on the hill in his last few starts, the Under is the way to play tonigh's Red Sox, Mariners tilt in Seattle.

Daisuke Matsuzaka gets the nod today for Boston and the Red Sox have only allowed 1.67 runs against in his last three starts. Plus, the Red Sox bats have been silent of late, as they are only averaging 2.8 runs per game in their last five contests.

Here’s a 66% winning baseball system backing up our Under call in the Boston vs. Seattle game tonight at Safeco Field. Whenever you have a home underdog and the total is between 8½ and 9 during the month of July, before a non-division game and they are coming off a loss vs. a left-handed pitcher, the Under is 31-16-1 for the home dog in this role this season since 1997.

Plus, this total opened at 9.0 and the early money has been coming in on the Under. Let’s back the system and early money on this game and go with the Under 8½ (-110) in the Red Sox vs. Mariners game this evening.

[Willie Bee]

Peavy, Padres -112 at Cincinnati Reds

Game Time: 07/22/2008 07:10 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

The Padres haven't had much to cheer about this season, but Jake Peavy is still their ace and the better pitcher against Johnny Cueto and the Reds tonight. Side with San Diego.

There haven't been many positive stats for the Padres this season. Even their ace Jake Peavy (7-6) isn't having his best season. The Padres are 10-4 in Peavy's last 14 starts as a road favorite. San Diego is 23-9 in his last 32 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.

The Reds have lost five of Johnny Cueto's last seven starts. Cincinnati is 0-4 in his last four starts vs. NL West opponents.

The Padres are 4-0 in Peavy's last four starts in Cincinnati. San Diego has won his last eight starts vs. the Reds. The Padres are 5-1 in their last six trips to Cincinnati. Play on San Diego.

Free Pick: Padres -112

[Willie Bee]

Take Reds +100 at home vs. Padres

Game Time: 07/22/2008 07:10 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Jake Peavy has been as sharp as ever, but the Padres can't score and seem like a terrible risk as road chalk. Also, San Diego won last night and they have had trouble putting a winning streak together.

Jake Peavy of the San Diego Padres still has some of the best stuff in baseball, but the Pads are a risky play as a road favorite when they visit the Cincinnati Reds tonight.

Peavy has a 2.66 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 100 strikeouts in 101.2 innings, but the fact that he is just 7-6 and that the Padres as a team are 7-9 in all of his starts should give you an idea of just how bad the San Diego offense is. The Padres are averaging a pathetic 3.76 runs per game overall with a very mediocre .249 team batting average, and they are just 15-32 on the road, which is reason enough to avoid them as road chalk.

Now the Reds may have a virtually identical .248 team batting average, but they are averaging 4.41 runs because unlike San Diego, they have the ability to hit home runs. Their starter Johnny Cueto has pitched better than his 4.92 ERA, and he has been at his best vs. weak offenses. San Diego certainly falls into that category, and the fact that this is his first career start against them should make him extra tough.

The Padres won 6-4 here last night, but they have had difficulty piecing together wins, going just 1-7 the last eight times they were coming off of a victory. Look for them to fail to get back-to-back wins yet again.

Free Pick: Reds +100