Post your comments and leans in this thread. If you have a play post it in the regular best bets thread. Remember, this is for comments and leans only. No results will be tracked from this thread.
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Duke and the Pirates favorites again tomorrow. Any reason I shouldn't play the Cubs now?Comment -
i was kind of liking the pirates myself tomorrow winston. although, i haven't really capped it in depth yet.Comment -
What's everybody think about Nats/Marlins tomorrow? Patterson hasn't looked very good in his first two starts, but can the Nats lose another one? (I hope so, lol)Comment -
passing on the nats from here on out owned. frank robinson said tonight there could be a fire sale soon.Comment -
Same here, but I will still fade them when I can, lol.Originally posted by bigboydanComment -
i'm thinking it should be smooth sailing for me all the way thru the all-star break
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Ponson pitching for Cards tomorrow...Reds should be able to hit him.
Marlins are not a good club...no reason Nats can't win tomorrow.Comment -
Dont forget, the Nationals arent a good club themselfs. Their lineup is pitaful, and Frank Robinson dont know where to put his hitters. I see he got smart and took Waston out of the lineup.Originally posted by AlamorichComment -
I think it's a horrible spot for Cincy even though Fat Sidney will be on the mound.Comment -
You got to think the Cards are going to bust out sometime. Pujols has been shut down for 2 games now.Originally posted by OWNEDComment -
somebody try to talk me out of seattle on saturday
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Ok guys...give me the low down on AJ Burnett health.Comment -
Looks like the runs being scored have calmed down a bit with 9 unders to 6 overs yesterday. I'm considering blanketing the unders for today as I feel alot of the totals will be bet up.Comment -
Piniero pitches much worse during the day and he is retched against the Red Sox to the tune of a 7.71 era and a WHIP nearing 2 over the course of 44 plus innings.Originally posted by bigboydansomebody try to talk me out of seattle on saturday
That said, Wakefield is not worthy of that chalk, lol.Comment -
I'm with you on Seattle.Originally posted by bigboydansomebody try to talk me out of seattle on saturdayComment -
I expect a high scoring game. Pujols can get his hits but good chance Ponson give up some runs early and the Cards bullpen is very shaky.Originally posted by onlòókerComment -
Originally posted by Alamorich
lets cash this puppy rich
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waiting for the lineups to be released today, before anything.Originally posted by AlamorichComment -
A Saturday foursome...
Cleveland (F.Carmona) at Detroit (J.Bonderman) – 1:05 p.m. ET
WEATHER: Afternoon high of 72°, sunny with NNW winds 5-10 MPH (out to center)
UMPIRES: Brian Runge should be behind the dish and he has a larger than normal strike zone based on 2005 stats. Hitters averaged less than two homers per nine innings on him last year. His strike calls are down about 8% in two games so far this year.
Fausto Carmona --- Gotta’ love that name! --- makes his major league debut tonight for the Tribe in Motown. In 12 official spring innings last month, Carmona allowed just one earned run and struck out eight with no walks or homers allowed. He hails from the Dominican Republic, stands 6-4, weighs 190, is 22-yrs-old and throws right.
Jeremy Bonderman is making his third start of the season with a 1-1 record (win at KC, loss at home to ChiSox) and 3.29 ERA in nearly 14 IP. He’s now 7-8 in 16 career April starts, and has had his trouble against the Indians (4-7, 13 starts, 6.30 ERA, 14 HR in 74.1 IP). He’s 15-19 lifetime at Comerica (43 starts) with an ERA just under five. Casey Blake (.385, 26 AB), Ben Broussard (.273, 2 HR, 33 AB) and Grady Sizemore (.313, HR, 16 AB) have given him trouble while Ronnie Belliard (.167, 18 AB) has had trouble with Bonderman.
MY PLAY: With a 3-game losing streak and their bats silent in Detroit last night, my usual play would be to ride Cleveland’s mini-woes and take the Tigers. But I like pitchers making their debuts, and I really like the +126 that VIP is currently listing for Cleveland.
Cincinnati (D.Williams) at St. Louis (S.Ponson) – 2:15 p.m. ET
WEATHER: Slight chance of rain (30%) with a high of 83° and SSE winds 10-15 MPH (slightly out to LF corner).
UMPIRES: Tim Timmons is slated for plate duty in this one, and he tends to call a lot of balls compared to other men in blue (or black & gray as the case is today). Count on nine runs or more.
Lefty Dave Williams makes his second start of the year, dropping a 5-3 decision to his former teammates from Pittsburgh in Cincy six days ago. He’s been a better pitcher away from his home parks during his career. Since 2003, Williams is 1-3 in four starts against St. Louis with a 4.88 ERA. This is his first go at the new Cardinals park, and the only easy outs in the Redbirds’ lineup are David Eckstein (.111, 9 AB) and Scott Rolen (.143, 7 AB). Albert Pujols (.444, 18 AB) and Jim Edmonds (.400, 10 AB) have both taken him yard twice.
Sydney Ponson is making his second start of the year after a no-decision against the Cubs in Chicago that eventually went the Cubs’ way, 8-4. He’s made just one start against the Reds in his career, and was raked for seven earned runs and two long balls in six innings to absorb the defeat. That start came in Baltimore. Scott Hatteberg (.500, HR, 16 AB) and Ken Griffey Jr (.545, 3 HR, 11 AB) light him up. Griffey is still nursing a sore knee, but the chance to bat against Ponson could propel him into the lineup today.
MY PLAY: After Cincy’s Aaron Harang drove in the lone run of the game and pitched seven shutout innings last night in a 1-0 win over the Cards, that +150 on the Reds today is a bit tempting, especially with Ponson on the hill for St. Louis. But instead of gambling on the Reds to win another one, a wise man is the one who got his bet in at -115 on the over 9½ earlier this morning.
Chicago (J.Williams) at Pittsburgh (Z.Duke) – 7:05 p.m. ET
WEATHER: Partly cloudy, 20% chance of showers in the afternoon clearing into the night, 1st-pitch temp in mid-to-upper 60s, winds WNW at 10-15 MPH (out to left-center).
UMPIRES: Fieldin Culbreth has a penchant for letting his strike zone get tighter as the game wears on. Expect 9+ runs in this game if his current season average keeps up.
Big righty Jerome Williams is making his first start of the season after a trio of relief outings. His 3.60 ERA so far sort of hides the five walks he’s issued in five innings to date. In 32 road starts during his career, he’s 13-9 with a 3.75 ERA and 16 HR in nearly 200 IP. Williams is 1-1 in his last three starts against the Pirates with a 4.00 ERA in 18 IP. His lone start at PNC resulted in over seven innings of 4-hit, shutout ball and a win. Pittsburgh hitters who have troubled him are Craig Wilson (.500, 6 AB) and Jason Bay (.400, 5 AB). Williams has had good success against Sean Casey (2-for-11).
Southpaw Zach Duke out of Clifton, Texas, is making his third start of the season and is coming off a very poor outing earlier this week in Pittsburgh’s 8-3 loss to the Dodgers. Duke only made it through the 5th-inning of that game, allowing a pair of dongs and seven runs. Before last Monday’s loss to the Dodgers, Duke was 4-2 in seven career starts at PNC Park. He should be drooling like a bloodhound at the prospects of facing the Cubs since he owns a 2-0 mark in two career starts, allowing just three runs (one earned) in 16 IP. Matt Murton is the only Chicago hitter who has had much success against him (.500, 6 AB). Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez are a combined 1-for-10 with two strikeouts and no walks.
MY PLAY: The first few innings will be key to this one. I like the over 9 (+100) despite Duke’s success in 2005 pitching in Pittsburgh and against the Cubs.
San Francisco (J.Schmidt) at Los Angeles (O.Perez) – 10:10 p.m. ET
WEATHER: Plenty of clouds but only slight chance of rain, game time temp about 60°, very little wind.
UMPIRES: Chris Guccione should be calling the balls and strikes, and he tends to be slightly a pitcher’s umpire. There were just 152 walks in his 28 games behind the plate in 2005, with 51 HR.
Jason Schmidt tried to get on track at Chavez Ravine after opening the season with a no-decision and a loss to go with his 5.14 ERA (14 IP). Generally a strong pitcher in April, Schmidt has made a living against the Dodgers by going 7-1 in his last dozen starts that include 83 K and a 2.52 ERA in nearly 80 IP. He’s a perfect 4-0 in his last six starts in LA. Nobody available for the Dodgers lineup tonight has done well against Schmidt. Jeff Kent, Rafael Furcal, JD Drew, Jose Cruz Jr and Kenny Lofton have batted a combined .194 in 103 at bats with just a homer each from Lofton and Cruz.
Left-hander Odalis Perez sports a win this season despite an 8.64 ERA. He was shelled in a no-decision against the Braves in LA on Apr 5th, then came back to work into the sixth for a win this past Monday in Pittsburgh. He likes pitching in LA (13-9, 3.13 ERA in last 34 starts), but hates facing the Giants (0-2, 6.26 ERA in last five starts against SF). Despite pitching from the left side, Barry Bonds has torn Perez up with 4 HR, 7 BB and a .393 AVG in 28 AB. Moises Alou (.375, 16 AB) also likes to face Perez. Steve Finley (.231, 26 AB), Ray Durham (.208, 24 AB), Pedro Feliz (.130, 23 AB), Jason Schmidt (0-for-9), Mike Matheny (1-for-8) and Randy Winn (0-for-5) have had their troubles with Perez.
MY PLAY: Basically a pick ‘em game with both teams -105 on VIPs overnight lines and the total runs, 7½, at -110 on both sides. Both of those have moved a bit (-108 now on Giants, with the over -120). Dodgers are beat up a bit, but should have Kenny Lofton back for this one. Giants have chunked Tim Worrell the last two days, so he might not be available in this one. Moises Alou is also questionable for San Fran with a left calf strain. I’ll take Schmidt over Perez.Comment -
very nice writeup willie
as far as that cincy/st.louis games goes, im going to wait on the lineup card myself.Comment -
Looks like the Mets are about to score some unearned runs.Comment -
Good to see they only got 1 in. 2 errors in the inning for the Brewers, and only give up 1 run. I will take that.Originally posted by RazzComment -
I was also very pleased. Let's hope the Brewers can hold this 3-1 lead.Originally posted by onlòókerComment -
Happy to see those "questionables" on Vidro and Guillen ---> Not in lineup today.Comment -
colorado looks very inticing.
as i said before. i'm not a RL type of bettor, but this one has colorado blowout writen all over it.Comment -
What makes you see a blowout Dan?? I can see the over happening pretty easily, but what do you see about Jennings??Originally posted by bigboydanComment -
Damn, this Nationals game is frustrating. Marlins get no hits for 4 1/3, fluke in a run, and now Soriano gets caught stealing in the top 6 to prevent what could be a big inning.Comment -
I hate Humerto Cota. Pirates are stranding runners left and right. Duke's going to have one bad inning and they'll lose.
That passed ball by Posada hurt the Yanks bad in the 2nd.Comment -
Keep thinking the same thing about Duke & the Pirates, while kicking myself for not having under in the Nats game.Comment -
You don't have the Nats on TV or radio, do you Razz?Comment -
Nah, I'm just watching the Pirates game right now.Comment -
Pirates 2-0 on triple and sac fly.Comment -
What did I say about Cota? Can't even make contact on a hit and run, but why the F are they calling that with him. He can't do anything right.Originally posted by RazzComment -
Hey, things looking good - at least for me - Phillies up 4-2 on Burrell HR.Comment
