Front Page Picks (Sat., Jul 12)

[Willie Bee]

Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres Under 8 as bats stay quiet

Game Time: 07/12/2008 10:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Padres have had one of the worst offenses in baseball, but the Braves have been the worse club over the last 10 games, batting just .205 overall. Go Under.

The San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves both continued their offensive struggles last night, with the Padres coming away with the 4-0 win, and we feel runs will be hard to come by again tonight.

The Under is now 31-19-1, 62.0 percent in all San Diego home games this year, with the Padres averaging just 3.65 runs per game in those contests. They have a modest team batting average of .248 and a team ERA of 3.27 at home, which is obviously very conducive to the Under.

Greg Maddux faces has former teammates tonight, and like most of the San Diego staff, he has loved pitching at Petco, He is a deceptive 1-2 in this stadium, as he has an excellent 2.36 ERA and an outstanding 0.98 WHIP in 61 home innings. In fact, Maddux has allowed two earned runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts, regardless of the venue.

His task should be made easier here by the fact that the Braves are having an even tougher time offensively than the Padres are right now. Atlanta is batting a pathetic .205 as a team over the last 10 games, including a hideous .179 vs. right handed pitching, Furthermore, they have a grand total of one base hit over the first five innings of their last four games, so do not expect them to muster much off of Maddux.

The only weak point for the Under is that Charlie Morton is starting for the Braves, but the San Diego offense is capable of making even a mediocre pitcher look good.

Free Pick: Braves, Padres Under 8 (-105)

[Willie Bee]

Florida Marlins +117 at LA Dodgers

Game Time: 07/12/2008 10:10 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

The Marlins are 9-1 in Ricky Nolasco's 10 starts, including 6-0 most recently. Follow Florida as the road dogs tonight in Los Angeles against Hiroki Kuroda and the Dodgers.

The Marlins continue their weekend series with the Dodgers tonight when they send smoking-hot Ricky Nolasco to the hill in Los Angeles.

Since returning to the starting rotation, Nolasco has been on fire with nine wins in his last 10 starts, including his last six in a row. As a result Nolasco is in commanding KW form with just one walk and 24 strikeouts in his last three starts, and two walks with 22 strikeouts in his last three road efforts.

As the old adage goes, "You've got to ride 'em when they're hot," and Nolasco is on fire. Back the Fish and Nolasco here tonight.

Free Pick: Marlins +117

[Willie Bee]

Brewers -109 to bash Volquez, Reds

Game Time: 07/12/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Cincinnati right-hander Edinson Volquez' hot start has cooled over his most recent three starts while Milwaukee's lineup is mashing right now. Back the Brewers when they host the Reds.

Our Saturday night MLB selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers with Seth McClung and at home over the Cincinnacy Reds and Edinson Volquez.

The Brew Crew is a solid 81-46 at home at Miller Park the past two seasons, while Cincy is a poor 13-20 vs. division foes this year. Volquez has a dismal 6.32 ERA over his last three starts.

The Brewers' offense is playing well right now, and has put up at least five runs in six of their last nine games. Take Milwaukee.

Free Pick: Brewers -109

[Willie Bee]

Nationals +105 vs. Houston Astros

Game Time: 07/12/2008 07:10 PM -
By: Dave Cokin | playbook.com

The Astros are heading downhill, and doing so very fast. Nab the Nationals tonight when their young starter Collin Balester snuffs Houston in Game 2 of the series in Washington.

I've watched the first two starts of Washington rookie Collin Balester, and he's made a very positive impression.

Balester's numbers weren't all that great in last start on Sunday in Cincinnati (5.2 IP, 5 ER), but in fact he retired the first nine hitters he faced in that contest before running into some tough pitching luck after that. Balester draws a very capable mound adversary here in Wandy Rodriguez, but the Astros as just awful on the road and are getting overpriced here.

I prefer taking the home dog odds with Balester and the Nationals.

Free Pick: Nationals +105

[Willie Bee]

Colorado Rockies +133 too much for Pedro, New York Mets

Game Time: 07/12/2008 03:55 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

The Rockies are a disappointing team this year, but they should still get the best of Pedro Martinez this afternoon in New York. Cash Colorado against the Mets today.

The Rockies have not been the same team that made the World Series last year, but they still have talent.

Colorado is 7-4 in their last 11 games. The Rockies are also 7-4 in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record. Ubaldo Jimenez has struggled this season but the Rockies are 5-2 in his last seven starts.

The Mets are red hot but today they send a cold Pedro Martinez to the mound. New York is 3-5 when Pedro is on the mound this season. Over his last three starts his ERA is 7.31 and the Mets are 1-4 in his last five starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Colorado is 7-4 in their last 11 games at Shea. Play on Colorado.

Free Pick: Rockies +133

[Willie Bee]

Marlins, LA Dodgers stay Under 7½

Game Time: 07/12/2008 10:10 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Kuroda and Nolasco may not be household names, but each has an ERA in the 3.00s and both are in excellent current form. Kuroda is off of a one-hot shutout and Nolasco has six straight Quality Starts.

Both Hiroki Kuroda of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Ricky Nolasco of the Florida Marlins are in terrific form, so do not expect much scoring in the Los Angeles smog tonight.

Kuroda had a Perfect Game for seven innings against the Braves in his last start, ultimately settling for a Complete Game one-hit shutout. He also tossed a Quality Start in his only start vs. these Marlins this season, allowing only five hits in seven innings of a 5-3 Dodger victory.

Nolasco is a surprising 10-4 with a 3.74 ERA for the season, and he has now reeled off six consecutive Quality Starts, allowing two runs or less in five of those starts. In fact, Nolasco has allowed three runs or less in nine of his last 10 outings. He should have little problem with a Los Angeles lineup that is batting .229 over the last 10 games.

The Marlins won 3-1 here last night, and the first game of this series would have gone Under if not for extra innings. Look for another low scoring game here.

Free Pick: Marlins, Dodgers Under 7½ (+100)