Front Page Picks (Fri., Jul 11)

[Willie Bee]

Atlanta Braves +130 to surprise Peavy, San Diego Padres on road

Game Time: 07/11/2008 10:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Jake Peavy is great, but the pathetic Padres offense always makes them poor risks as big favorites, and Reyes of Atlanta has a 2.52 ERA on the road. Go Braves.

The San Diego Padres have now lost 10 of their last 11 home games after dropping two out of three to the Florida Marlins here, which makes them vulnerable as big favorites over the Atlanta Braves, even with Jake Peavy on the mound.

Sure, Peavy has been his dominant self for the most part this season, with a 2.67 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 87.2 innings with 86 strikeouts. However, his 6-5 record is a direct result of the Padres putrid offense, as San Diego is averaging just 3.64 runs per game at home this year, where they are hitting a weak .221 vs. left-handed pitching.

This is good news for Atlanta southpaw starter Jo-Jo Reyes, who may be the only Braves pitcher that has actually done better on the road than at home this season. Reyes has a sparkling 2.52 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in five road starts, and he has not allowed more than two runs in any of his last four road outings.

Also, the Braves are 8-1 in nine head-to-head meetings with San Diego since last season, and we look for that trend to continue given the poor home form of the Padres.

Free Pick: Braves +130

[Willie Bee]

Philadelphia Phillies -142 to pop punchless Diamondbacks

Game Time: 07/11/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Philadelphia is 13-5 when Kyle Kendrick starts this season while Arizona has dropped two of Doug Davis' last three starts. Play the Phillies at home vs. the Diamondbacks.

Our Friday night MLB selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies at home in the City of Brotherly Love over the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Taking the mound for Philly is 23-year-old right-hander Kyle Kendrick who is building very nicely on his rookie campaign with the Phillies in 2007 when he went 10-4 with a sub-four ERA. He is having a very similar season in 2008, winning the majority of his games even if he rarely overpowers his opponents and sometimes gets himself into trouble. It would seem that Kendrick is a perfect fit for this club, as he complements the strikeout artistry of Cole Hamels and the crafty 40-something lefty Jamie Moyer with his own version of no-nonsense control pitching.

Kendrick already has close to double-digit wins on the season (8-3) and you'd probably be even more surprised to find out that he is responsible for more wins than any other Philly starter, with his team logging a very impressive 13-5 record in games which he's started so far this season.

Arguably, Diamondbacks left-hander Doug Davis' accomplishments have been much more impressive than those of his team as all Davis has done in the first half is come back from Thyroid cancer surgery to perform very effectively with a 3.74 ERA and 54 strikeouts in only 65 innings. The fact that Davis has a losing record at 3-4 is not so much his fault as that of the hitting of his teammates, and if Davis has a problem this year, it's in the walks department where he has given up far too many in most of his starts. He can't afford to do that against a Philly team that will surely make him pay whenever they have a chance to get a baserunner.

His miraculous cancer recovery aside, Davis probably wins the award for tough-luck starter of the first half as he has been in position to win most of his starts, until fate seems to intervene in some way. Take the Phillies.

Free Pick: Phillies -142

[Willie Bee]

Mariners -123 at Kansas City Royals

Game Time: 07/11/2008 08:10 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

Felix Hernandez makes his first start since June 23 tonight for the Mariners who have won his last five outings. Make your play on Seattle when they take on the Royals in Kansas City.

The Seattle Mariners open a three-game set on the road in Kansas City when they send Felix Hernandez to the hill against the Royals.

This marks Hernandez' first start since turning his ankle on a play at the plate three week ago. At the time he was in season peak form as he enters tonight's fray in terrific KW form with just two walks and 19 strikeouts in his last three starts. Sporting a 1.90 ERA on the road this season, we'll back King Felix and the Mariners here tonight.

Free Pick: Mariners -123

[Willie Bee]

Peavy, San Diego Padres -143 vs. Atlanta Braves

Game Time: 07/11/2008 10:05 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

The Atlanta Braves have been just awful on the road this season, especially in one-run games. Back the Padres at home in San Diego with Jake Peavy on the mound.

The Atlanta Braves enter into todays tilt against the San Diego Padres off a heart-breaking 2-1 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday. The loss was was their 24th-straight set back in road games decided by one run.

The Padres have some hard luck stories of their own to tell, as is evident by losing 10 of their last 11 at home. Neither team inspires a whole lot of confidence. But tonight's pithing matchup does very much favor the host Padres as they send the ace of their pitching staff, Jake Peavy (6-5, 2.67 ERA), to the hill to face an Atlanta team that is hitting just .241 on the road while producing just 3.8 RPG.

The Fathers hard-throwing right-hander is rounding into form after starting his season out slowly and then landing on the disabled list. Since coming off the DL, Peavy is 2-2 along with a stingy 2.17 ERA in five starts, and is off one of his best efforts of the season the last time out when he allowed just three hits in seven innings of work against Arizona.

Meanwhile his 23-year-old pitching opponent from the Braves, Jo-Jo Reyes (3-7, 4.40 ERA), is a hurler that is still experiencing growing pains as he learns to deal with MLB hitters, while at the same time struggling with his command. He could be a pretty good pitcher one of these days, but for now he is fade material.

It must be noted that Reyes made his his debut in the majors right here in Petco Park last July 7 giving up five runs, including two home runs in an 8-5 loss. I'm predicting those bad memories come back to haunt the lefty again tonight.

Final Notes & Key Trends: Atlanta has lost 21 of 32 games against right-handed starters this season. Play on San Diego.

Free Pick: Padres -143

[Willie Bee]

New York Mets -136 to extend winning streak vs. Rockies

Game Time: 07/11/2008 07:10 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

Colorado is 6-22 in their last 28 road games and 6-22 in their last 28 trips to the Big Apple. Back Oliver Perez and the New York Mets Friday when they host the Rockies.

Colorado is 6-22 in their last 28 road games. The Rockies are 2-6 in their last eight road games vs. a left-handed starter and 7-20 in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Aaron Cook is having a good season for the Rockies, but Colorado is 9-24 in his last 33 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.

New York has won six straight and have climbed back in the NL East division race. The Mets have won four of Oliover Perez's last five starts and four of his last five home starts.

The Rockies are 6-22 in their last 28 trips to New York. Play on New York.

Free Pick: Mets -136

[Willie Bee]

Oakland A’s -110 hosting LA Angels

Game Time: 07/11/2008 10:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Sean Gallagher comes over to the A's highly touted, and he did look good for the most part for the Cubs this year, so he should be tough his first time through the American League. Take Oakland at home.

Sean Gallagher is making his Oakland Athletics debut here tonight against the Los Angeles Angels after coming over in the Rich Harden trade, and he could be very tough his first time through the American League.

Gallagher allowed three earned runs or less in six of his last seven starts for the Chicago Cubs, and he is facing an Angels lineup that has struggled at times this season with pitchers that hey have seen, let alone one that is facing them for the first time. Sure the Halos scored 26 runs the last four games, but that was vs. a Texas Rangers pitching staff that can make any offense look good.

Now Jon Garland is quietly having a fine season in Los Angeles, as he is 8-5 with a 3.76 ERA, including a 2.45 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last three starts. However, he has always had trouble with Oakland and this year has been no exception, as he has allowed 13 runs and 23 hits in three starts against them, covering 19 innings.

Finally, if these pitchers are in need of support, Oakland is fourth in the American League with a 3.31 bullpen ERA, while the Angels are languishing a bit in that area at 4.15.

Free Pick: Athletics -110