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  • Willie Bee
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-14-06
    • 15726

    #1
    Front Page Picks (Thu, Jul 10)
    Diamondbacks, Nationals to sputter Under 7½ again in Washington

    Game Time: 07/10/2008 07:10 PM -
    By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

    The last four meetings between Washington and Arizona this year have all ended in shutouts for one of the teams, with a total of 16 runs scored. Go Under again.

    There are so many factors pointing to the Under in this contest between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Washington Nationals that we are not quite sure where to begin.

    Well, let us start with the offenses. The Nationals are batting just .231 as a team overall and .227 vs. right-handers here at home this season. They are averaging only 3.40 runs per game over the last 10 games. The Diamondbacks are actually averaging less runs over this same span at 3.20, and Arizona has scored three runs or less in five straight games and two runs or less in four of those contests.

    As for the starting pitchers, Danny Haren has pitched brilliantly in his first year in the desert, and he would be much better than 8-5 with any run support. He has a 2.83 ERA and an outstanding 0.98 WHIP in 117.2 innings. Likewise, Jason Bergmann has pitched much better than his 1-6 record would indicate, and he has a 1/80 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in his last three starts.

    Looking at how each starter has done against their opponents tonight, Haren tossed seven scoreless innings at the Nationals while allowing just four hits in his only other start against them this year. Bergmann was not quite that good in his only start vs. Arizona, but he was not terrible either allowing four total runs in a Complete Game 4-0 loss.

    Looking at the home/away team tendencies for each team, the Under is 27-18 in Washington home games with the Nationals averaging 3.35 runs in this stadium. Similarly, the Under is 24-17 in Arizona road games, with the D-Backs averaging 3.64 runs in those contests.

    Finally, looking at the head-to-head history, the Under is 4-1 in all meetings this season including a perfect 4-0 in the last four encounters, and the Under is also 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Washington. The last four meetings this season have averaged a lowly 4.00 combined runs per game, all of them ending in shutouts for one of the teams!

    Free Pick: Diamondbacks, Nationals Under 7½ (-125)
  • Willie Bee
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-14-06
    • 15726

    #2
    Chicago Cubs -175 to broom Reds

    Game Time: 07/10/2008 02:20 PM -
    By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

    The Cubs are pitching circles around the Reds in this series and that won't change this afternoon at Wrigley when Chicago's Ted Lilly squares off against Cincinnati's Bronson Arroyo.

    Our Thursday afternoon MLB selection is on the Chicago Cubs at home in Wrigleyville over the Cincinnati Reds.

    Two days after their NL Central division rivals the Milwaukee Brewers pulled off the biggest trade of the season so far by acquiring ace C.C. Sabathia from the Cleveland Indians, the first-place Cubs answered with a pitching acquisition of their own by nabbing 26-year-old right-hander Rich Harden (along with Chad Gaudin) from Oakland in a six player deal with the Athletics. Admittedly, although Chicago probably gave up more in terms of talent than Milwaukee did, this could be a more significant trade – if Harden can stay healthy. And that's been a big IF the past few years.

    But since coming off the DL in early May (Harden spent most of April out of commission), he has been nearly unhittable, and there is no reason that he shouldn't be able to continue that level of performance, especially with a much more potent offense behind him than he had in Oakland. Harden won't get his first start with Chicago until Friday or Saturday, and this afternoon it will be Ted Lilly, another former American Leaguer who has found considerable success on this team.

    Lilly will be going for his 10th win in this one, and it would be significant for him if he can do it before the break. Lilly seems to have his biggest problem – too many walks – under control in his last few starts and he's only surrendered five free passes in his last three trips to the mound. Lilly was cruising in his last start against the Cards, only to have closer Kerry Wood blow it for him, a rare poor outing for Wood this season as he's been solid in just about every other opportunity.

    Right-hander Bronson Arroyo goes for Cincy and he comes off one of his worst outings ever on June 24 with two very strong starts since. But those were against two of the most anemic offenses in the majors in the Indians and Nationals. Don't expect the Cubs to cooperate like that this afternoon. Take Chicago.

    Free Pick: Cubs -175
    Comment
    • Willie Bee
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 02-14-06
      • 15726

      #3
      Kansas City Royals -106 vs. White Sox

      Game Time: 07/10/2008 08:10 PM -
      By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

      The White Sox are 4-10 in Mark Buehrle's last 14 road starts while Royals starter Zach Greinke is in great form over his last three starts. Cash Kansas City at home vs. Chicago.

      The Royals close out a three game set with the Chicago White Sox when they send Zach Greinke to the mound against Mark Buerhle in Kansas City this evening.

      While Buerhle has enjoyed great success against K.C. of late (8-0 last eight team starts), the fact of the matter is Chicago is 4-10 in his last 14 road starts and 4-15 in his last 19 July starts entering tonight's contest. With Greinke in solid 22/2 KW form in his last three efforts and the Royals 9-5 in his last 14 starts on Thursday, including 5-1 at home, look for Buehrle's royal bubble to burst here tonight.

      Free Pick: Royals -106
      Comment
      • Willie Bee
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 02-14-06
        • 15726

        #4
        Milwaukee Brewers -155 to level Colorado Rockies

        Game Time: 07/10/2008 02:05 PM -
        By: Dave Cokin | playbook.com

        After their bullpen got roughed up yesterday by the Rockies in an 8-3 loss, look for the Brewers to bounce back this afternoon at home in Milwaukee vs. Colorado.

        The Milwaukee Brewers got run over by the Colorado Rockies Wednesday, but I like Milwaukee to rebound here.

        Dave Bush has been surprisingly effective at home for the Brew Crew of late. Over his last six games at Miller Park, he's a solid 3-1 with a 1.93 ERA. His mound opponent today, Jorge De La Rosa, has done some decent work for Colorado, but not on the road where he's still winless on the year.

        The Brewers usually mash lefties pretty well, so laying the spot with Milwaukee seems like a good risk.

        Free Pick: Brewers -155
        Comment
        • Willie Bee
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 02-14-06
          • 15726

          #5
          Dog the Cardinals +129 at Phillies

          Game Time: 07/10/2008 01:05 PM -
          By: Robert Ross | sportspic.com

          The Phillies have lost each of left-hander Jamie Moyer's last four starts. Back Braden Looper and the Cardinals this afternoon when St. Louis closes their series in Philadelphia.

          The Phillies have been struggling while the Cardinals are 16-8 against the money line vs. teams that are outscoring their opposition by 0.5 or more runs per game on the season, and 10-3 against the money line vs. a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better this season.

          Meanwhile the Phillies are 10-19 against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season, and starter Jamie Moyer is 32-41 against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams averaging 0.5 or less stolen bases per game in the second half of the season since 1997. Take St. Louis!

          Free Pick: Cardinals +129
          Comment
          • Willie Bee
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 02-14-06
            • 15726

            #6
            Play Over 7½ when the Toronto Blue Jays host the Baltimore Orioles

            Game Time: 07/10/2008 07:05 PM -
            By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

            The Over has cashed in 22 of Baltimore's last 30 games and four of Toronto's last five. Look for runs aplenty Thursday night when the Blue Jays entertain the Orioles.

            Entering play tonight in Toronto, the Over is 22-8 in Baltimore's last 30 games and 13-4 in their last 17 road games.

            The Over is 15-3 in the Orioles' last 18 games as an underdog. In their last 10 vs. AL East opponents, the Over is 8-1-1. In Jeremy Guthrie's last five road starts as a dog, the Over is 4-1.

            The Over is 9-3-1 in the Blue Jays' last 13 games vs. a right-handed starter. Toronto has played over the total in four of their last five games. The Over is 5-2-1 in Roy Halladay's last eight home starts.

            The Over is 7-0 in Baltimore's last seven trips to Toronto and 11-1 in the last 12 meetings overall between the clubs.

            Free Pick: Orioles-Blue Jays Over 7½ (-105)
            Comment
            • Willie Bee
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 02-14-06
              • 15726

              #7
              Marlins and Dodgers to go Under 8½

              Game Time: 07/10/2008 10:10 PM -
              By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

              Dodger Stadium is a pitcher’s park at night when the ball does not carry, and Park has yet to allow more than one earned run in four starts. If Johnson is close to his old self, the Under should be safe.

              This game between the Florida Marlins and the Los Angeles Dodgers marks the return of Josh Johnson to the Florida rotation.

              Remember that Johnson was a very highly regarded prospect, and he certainly looked the part in his rookie year in 2006, going 11-5 with an excellent 3.03 ERA in 24 starts. However, some nerve irritation in his right arm led him to have Tommy John surgery, killing the 2007 season. Now there have been many stories of pitchers coming back stronger after this surgery lately, so Johnson could be a staple in the rotation for years to come.

              The Dodgers counter with veteran Chan Ho Park, who has been surprisingly effective this season with a 2.36 ERA in 61 innings. Park has yet to allow more than one earned run in any of his four starts, and he has allowed a grand total of one run and seven hits in 12 innings over his last two outings.

              Throw in the fact that Dodger home games are averaging a combined 7.20 runs per game this year and the ball does not carry well at night here, and runs should be hard to come by tonight.

              Free Pick: Marlins, Dodgers Under 8½ (-110)
              Comment
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