Front Page Picks (Tue., Jul 8)

[Willie Bee]

Atlanta Braves, LA Dodgers Under 7½ as bats are quiet again

Game Time: 07/08/2008 10:10 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

They have different styles, but both Jurrjens and Billingsley are having fine seasons, each with an ERA just over 3.00. With the offenses sputtering, go Under.

The Los Angeles Dodgers beat the Atlanta Braves 3-0 here last night, as the Braves were held hitless for seven innings by Hiroki Kuroda, and we expect another light-hitting affair tonight.

Both of these clubs are struggling offensively lately, particularly against right-handed pitching. The Braves are hitting just .211 overall and a pathetic .202 vs. right-handers over their last 10 games, while the Dodgers are batting .226 overall and .219 vs. righties over this same period.

This is not to say that the starting right-handers tonight need any help! Atlanta starter Jair Jurrjens is 8-4 with a 3.09 ERA for the season, and he has allowed three earned runs or less in 14 of his 17 starts. Jurrjens is a pronounce ground ball pitcher, with a GB/FB ratio of 1.54, and he has allowed a total of four earned runs in his last four starts.

Dodger starter Chad Billingsley should be a lot better than 8-7 given his 3.12 ERA in 17 starts, but like most LA pitchers, he has suffered from a lack of run support. Billingsley is more of a power pitcher, as he has an impressive 107 strikeouts in 104 innings.

The bottom line here is that we have two very good starters and two offenses that are sorely lacking lately, and both bullpens are in the top 10 in the majors to boot. This sounds like a nice recipe for an Under.

Free Pick: Braves, Dodgers Under 7½ (-120)

[Willie Bee]

White Sox -123 vs Kansas City Royals

Game Time: 07/08/2008 08:10 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Next to the Tampa Bay Rays, the White Sox are the most surprising division leader presently, and Chicago's winning ways will continue Tuesday against the Kansas City Royals.

Our Tuesday night MLB selection is on the Chicago White Sox on the road at Kauffman Stadium over the Kansas City Royals.

The White Sox are about to head into the All-Star Break as the most surprising team in the American League. Sure, most people would not have predicted that Tampa Bay would be on top in the AL East, but anyone you asked would have told you that the Rays had one of the most talented teams in the league heading into the season.

But finding someone who would have predicted that Chicago would have 50 wins by the break would have been a lot harder. Only the surprising Twins appear to be in a position to give Chicago a run for its money in the AL Central.

Kansas City had a shocking victory against the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday but are still only 2-5 in their last seven games. The White Sox have won the last five games against the Royals and have outscored them 34-11 during this time. The Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 games and 24-11 their last 35 vs. division foes. Take Chicago.

Free Pick: White Sox -123

[Willie Bee]

Marlins +110 at San Diego Padres

Game Time: 07/08/2008 10:05 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

Padres southpaw Randy Wolf has dropped each of his last four starts and his teams are 6-13 against the Marlins over the years. Florida is the play as a small dog in San Diego.

The Florida Marlins meet the Padres in Game 2 of their three-game series in San Diego this evening when they take on Randy Wolf.

The bad news for the Padres is that Wolf is in rocky form currently at 0-4 with an 8.33 ERA in his last four starts. Even worse news is the fact he is 6-13 with a 6.74 ERA in his career team starts in this series.

With the Fish scoring runs and the Padres not of late, look for Florida to continue their winning ways at the expense of Wolf and the Padres here tonight.

Free Pick: Marlins +110

[Willie Bee]

St. Louis Cardinals +190 at Phillies

Game Time: 07/08/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Brad Diamond | playbook.com

The Phillies have won just seven of their last 21 games and enter tonight's tilt with the Cardinals on a three-game skid. Side with St. Louis as the heavy underdog at Philadelphia.

Since June 13 when the Phillies defeated the Cardinals 20-2, their season has gone on a negative 7-14 downward cycle.

Monday the Mets defeated Philly to win their third in a four-game series at The Bank, so the NL East is no longer a lock for the former division champs. Although the Phillies are on a super 20-8 streak with Cole Hamels at home and a 4-0 versus St. Louis, there are some nice edges with the Cards. Not only are the Cardinals 10-3 with a day off, but they are also 6-1 versus a hurler with a 1.15 WHIP or less.

Finally, St. Louis is 5-2 in Tuesday road games and 5-3 this season coming in off a loss of six runs or more.

Free Pick: Cardinals +190

[Willie Bee]

Minnesota Twins and Boston Red Sox Under 9 at Fenway

Game Time: 07/08/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

The Under has cashed 19 of the last 29 meetings between the Twins and the Red Sox, including last night's 1-0 win for Boston. Play the Under Tuesday at Fenway Park.

The Under is 6-0 in the Minnesota Twins' last six starts as an underdog and 5-1 in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.

The Under is 7-1-2 in Boston's last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning record and 11-4-2 in their last 17 home games as a favorite between -150 and -200. The Under is 8-3-1 in the Rod Sox' last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 7-2 in Jon Lester's last nine home starts.

The under is 5-1 in the Twins' last six trips to Boston and 19-8-2 in the last 29 meetings between the clubs.

Free Pick: Twins-Red Sox Under 9 (+110)

[Willie Bee]

Orioles, Blue Jays to go Under 8½

Game Time: 07/08/2008 07:07 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Daniel Cabrera is coming off of a Complete Game win, and the Under is 11-5 in all of his stats. Dustin McGowan has a 2.20 ERA at home, with the Under going 6-0-1 here. Go Under again in Toronto.

Daniel Cabrera of the Baltimore Orioles seems to have recaptured his fine early-season form, while Dustin McGowan of the Toronto Blue Jays has pitched much better at home, so runs should be hard to come by tonight.

Cabrera tailed off after a great start for the Orioles this season, but he rounded with a Complete Game 5-2 victory over the Kansas City Royals in his last start, allowing seven hits while tossing a very reasonable 105 pitches over the nine innings. Cabrera has also posted Quality Starts in each of his last three starts in Toronto, including allowing two runs on just three hits in eight innings in his last appearance here last season.

Now McGowan may be a shaky 6-7 with a 4.36 ERA overall, but he has been a different pitcher in his own stadium, going 3-0 with a 2.20 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in seven home starts, with the Under going a virtually perfect 6-0-1 in those starts. He has posted Quality Starts in each of his last two outings against Baltimore.

In fact, the Under is 13-4 in all McGowan starts this season, as well as 11-5 whenever Cabrera has taken the mound, and we see no reason why this contest should be any different.

Free Pick: Orioles, Blue Jays Under 8½ (-115)