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  • Willie Bee
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-14-06
    • 15726

    #1
    Front Page Picks (Mon, Jul 7)
    Colorado Rockies, Milwaukee Brewers Under 9 at sea level

    Game Time: 07/07/2008 08:05 PM -
    By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

    The Rockies are coming off of a four-game explosion vs. Florida, but they should find runs harder to come by at sea level, where they have struggled. Take the Under.

    The Colorado Rockies just got through scoring 41 runs in a four-game home series with the Florida Marlins, but they should find runs harder to come by when they visit the Milwaukee Brewers Monday.

    The Rockies are averaging just 3.63 runs per game on the road this season, where they are batting a modest .246 as a team overall. Not surprisingly, the Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 road games, and they have the added benefit of a total inflated here because of their recent offensive eruptions in the altitude of home.

    Now Milwaukee starter Seth McClung may have a 4.18 ERA in eight starts, but the truth of the matter is that he has actually pitched surprisingly well, allowing two runs or less in six of his starts. His WHIP of 1.36 also looks better when you factor out his two bad outings. He should ne tough on a Colorado lineup that has never faced him before.

    This is not to say that the Rockies cannot win this game, because their starter Ubaldo Jimenez has also pitched very well after just an awful start. Jimenez has allowed two earned runs or less in four of his last five starts, including allowing one run or less in three of those outings. He is facing a Milwaukee lineup that is hitting only .247 vs. right-handers the last 10 games, as opposed to .319 vs. southpaws.

    Thus, we prefer the Under at this number to either side here.

    Free Pick: Rockies, Brewers Under 9 (-120)
  • Willie Bee
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-14-06
    • 15726

    #2
    LA Dodgers -127 vs. Atlanta Braves

    Game Time: 07/07/2008 10:10 PM -
    By: Stephen Nover | covers.com

    The Braves, who have struggled on the road all season, had to play 17 innings on Sunday and then travel two time zones to Los Angeles. Play the Dodgers when they host Atlanta.

    The price is right here to back a suddenly hot Dodgers squad against a bad Braves road team that is in a horrendous situational spot.

    Atlanta has to travel three time zones to the West Coast after playing a 17-inning home game against Houston on Sunday. The game took 5:35 to complete and that's not including nearly a two-hour rain delay. The Braves managed to win, but lost their best backup infielder, Omar Infante. They also lost two more relief pitchers to injuries during the weekend, Manny Acosta and Jeff Bennett.

    This leaves the Braves' bullpen extremely thin as Rafael Soriano remains out and closer Mike Gonzalez probably won't be available after throwing two innings and 40 pitches on Sunday. This puts a lot of pressure on Atlanta starter Jorge Campillo, who probably is going to be asked to pitch deep into the game regardless of how good his stuff is. Campillo has allowed 11 earned runs, 20 hits and five walks during his last three starts spanning 18.1 innings.

    The Braves have been a terrible road team all season, dropping 29 of 41 away contests.

    The Dodgers have renewed confidence after winning for the fifth time in their last six games on Sunday. The LA offense has more punch with the return of veterans Andruw Jones and Nomar Garciaparra. Hiroki Kuroda gets the start for Los Angeles. He has thrown shutouts in two of his past three starts. The Dodgers also hold a huge bullpen edge.

    Free Pick: Dodgers -127
    Comment
    • sickness
      SBR Sharp
      • 07-04-08
      • 263

      #3
      taking MIL straight up.
      Sports Newb since July '08
      Comment
      • Willie Bee
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 02-14-06
        • 15726

        #4
        Florida Marlins and San Diego Padres Under 8 at Petco

        Game Time: 07/07/2008 10:05 PM -
        By: Scott Spreitzer | phoenixsports.com

        Marlins starter Ricky Nolasco has started to click on the mound while the Padres' Greg Maddux has always known how to pitch. Play the under when San Diego hosts Florida.

        I'm playing the Under in the Florida Marlins/San Diego Padres game on Monday at Petco Park.

        Ricky Nolasco of Florida has caught fire of late. He always had electric stuff. After struggling to harness it early on, things clicked into place five starts ago. In those last five appearances, Nolasco has an ERA of 1.96, with a sparkling 0.82 WHIP and a stunning 35-4 strikeout/walk ratio. Nobody's hitting him, and tonight he gets to face a horrible offense in a pitcher's paradise.

        San Diego is throwing Greg Maddux. The future Hall-of-Famer has mastered the art of pitching in this park. His ERA is 2.45 at home this season, with a very strong 1.0 WHIP. This is very likely to be an extreme pitchers' duel that comes down to a late inning coin flip to determine the winner. Either pitcher could throw a shutout. Great pitching matchups have been ending 2-1 and 3-2 all season in this stadium. And, the oddsmakers still haven't adjusted enough.

        Free Pick: Marlins-Padres Under 8 (-115)
        Comment
        • Willie Bee
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 02-14-06
          • 15726

          #5
          Play Over 10 when the Texas Rangers host the Angels

          Game Time: 07/07/2008 08:05 PM -
          By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

          It's a hitter's paradise at The Ballpark That Dubya Built in the Lone Star State. Play the over Monday when the Texas Rangers host the Angels in a key AL West series.

          Our Monday night MLB selection is on the Los Angeles Angels and the Texas Rangers going over the total in the Lone Star State.

          The Angels head into the week before the break with the second-best record in the American League behind only the red-hot Tampa Bay Rays. But the Angels may in fact be the best team in the league with more experience than their younger AL East counterpart. One way that experience shows is on the road where the Angels have by far the best record in the league at 27-15 to go with their 25 wins in their home park. Los Angeles also has the best closer in baseball in Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez, who is on pace to break the all-time major league saves record.

          The Texas Rangers look to head into the break with a winning record and surprisingly if they do, it would be the fourth time in the last five years that they have been able to do so. But although Texas has one of the best offenses in baseball, their pitching is once again extremely suspect. Their relief pitching in particular has been very unreliable lately, and with their ugly 11-10 win on Sunday, this team has now given up double-digit runs in three of their last four games, and an unbelievable total of 41 runs during this time.

          The Rangers have gone over the total in 35 of 59 games vs. right-handed starters, and the Angels have gone over in 24 of Ervin Santana's last 36 road starts. Take the Over.

          Free Pick: Angels-Rangers Over 10 (-120)
          Comment
          • pavyracer
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 04-12-07
            • 82815

            #6
            Originally posted by Willie Bee
            Colorado Rockies, Milwaukee Brewers Under 9 at sea level

            Game Time: 07/07/2008 08:05 PM -
            By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

            The Rockies are coming off of a four-game explosion vs. Florida, but they should find runs harder to come by at sea level, where they have struggled. Take the Under.

            The Colorado Rockies just got through scoring 41 runs in a four-game home series with the Florida Marlins, but they should find runs harder to come by when they visit the Milwaukee Brewers Monday.

            The Rockies are averaging just 3.63 runs per game on the road this season, where they are batting a modest .246 as a team overall. Not surprisingly, the Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 road games, and they have the added benefit of a total inflated here because of their recent offensive eruptions in the altitude of home.

            Now Milwaukee starter Seth McClung may have a 4.18 ERA in eight starts, but the truth of the matter is that he has actually pitched surprisingly well, allowing two runs or less in six of his starts. His WHIP of 1.36 also looks better when you factor out his two bad outings. He should ne tough on a Colorado lineup that has never faced him before.

            This is not to say that the Rockies cannot win this game, because their starter Ubaldo Jimenez has also pitched very well after just an awful start. Jimenez has allowed two earned runs or less in four of his last five starts, including allowing one run or less in three of those outings. He is facing a Milwaukee lineup that is hitting only .247 vs. right-handers the last 10 games, as opposed to .319 vs. southpaws.

            Thus, we prefer the Under at this number to either side here.

            Free Pick: Rockies, Brewers Under 9 (-120)
            Since when is Lake Michigan a sea?

            Comment
            • Willie Bee
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 02-14-06
              • 15726

              #7
              Kuroda, LA Dodgers -135 vs. Braves

              Game Time: 07/07/2008 10:10 PM -
              By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

              The Dodgers look to avenge a sweep in Atlanta earlier this season, and have the decided edge on the mound tonight. Lay it on Los Angeles when the Braves come to town.

              The Dodgers host the Braves in the first of a three-game series in Los Angeles Monday night as they look to avenge a three game series sweep suffered at Atlanta in April earlier this year.

              Mondays have been good to the Dodgers as evidenced by their 13-5 mark of late, including 5-1 their last six at home. With Hiroki Kuroda 4-2 at home with a 3.00 ERA, as opposed to 3-6 away with a 4.29 ERA, we'll stay at home with Kuroda and Los Angeles here tonight.

              Free Pick: Dodgers -135
              Comment
              • Willie Bee
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 02-14-06
                • 15726

                #8
                Fade Pedro: Phillies -126 vs. NY Mets

                Game Time: 07/07/2008 07:05 PM -
                By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

                Let's face it: Pedro Martinez is a shell of his former self. He might be a future Hall of Famer, but tonight he's fade material when the Philadelphia Phillies host his New York Mets.

                The Mets are 4-8 in their last 12 games vs. NL East opponents. New York sends Pedro Martinez to the mound and he hasn't been sharp of late.

                Over his last three starts, all Mets losses, his ERA is 10.20. New York is 1-4 in his last five road starts. The Mets have lost eight of his last 10 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.

                The Phillies have won four of their last six games. In their last 15 games vs. a team with a losing record the Phillies are 12-3. The Phillies have won five of Adam Eaton's last seven home starts. In his last right starts vs. a team with a losing record, Philadelpia is 6-2.

                The Mets are 4-7 in their last 11 trips to Philadelphia. The Mets have lost Pedro's last four starts vs. the Phillies. Play on Philadelphia.

                Free Pick: Phillies -126
                Comment
                • Willie Bee
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 02-14-06
                  • 15726

                  #9
                  Garza & Rays, Meche & Royals Under 8 in Kansas City

                  Game Time: 07/07/2008 12:40 PM -
                  By: Ross Benjamin | phoenixsports.com

                  Both hurlers, Matt Garza for the Rays and Gil Meche of the Royals, are in good form making the Under an easy play Monday afternoon at K.C.'s Kauffman Stadium.

                  Tampa Bay Rays starter Matt Garza has seen seven of his eight starts at home this season go under the total while posting a stellar 2.16 ERA in the process. Garza has seen his last four starts overall go under the total while posting a terrific 1.86 ERA and a 6:1 strikeout to walk ratio.

                  Kansas City starter Gil Meche enters the game in good form off of his last three starts posting a 2.89 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Meche has seen six of his last seven starts as a road underdog go under the total. Play on the Under.

                  Free Pick: Royals-Rays Under 8 (-115)
                  Comment
                  • Willie Bee
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 02-14-06
                    • 15726

                    #10
                    Atlanta Braves, LA Dodgers Over 7½

                    Game Time: 07/07/2008 10:10 PM -
                    By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

                    This looks like a low total for a game pitting the struggling Campillo with the hittable Kuroda. The Dodgers have come alive offensively too, and the Braves put 11 men on base vs. Kuroda last time. Go Over.

                    This seems like a low posted total for the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers considering this pitching matchup.

                    Jorge Campillo got off to a great start for the Braves this season, but he has crashed back to earth lately. He allowed five earned runs and 10 baserunners in just five innings vs. the Phillies in his last start, and has a 5.40 ERA in his last three outings. He is also facing a rejuvenated Dodgers offense that is averaging 5.60 runs over the last six games.

                    Now granted, Hiroki Kuroda has a 3.73 ERA for the season for Los Angeles, but he is not dominant enough to merit a low total like this, especially vs. a mediocre mound opponent. Although he only allowed two runs in six innings and received credit for a Quality Start in his first outing vs. the Braves in Atlanta this season, he did allow 11 baserunners and was just fortunate that the Braves could not get a key hit.

                    Do not expect Kuroda to get that lucky again however, so look for a safe Over here.

                    Free Pick: Braves, Dodgers Over 7½ (-120)
                    Comment
                    • LT Profits
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 10-27-06
                      • 90963

                      #11
                      Originally posted by pavyracer
                      Since when is Lake Michigan a sea?

                      Would you prefer ground level or low altitude?

                      Point is, Milwaukee is not a Mile High, although some fans may be after visiting the Miller Brewery.
                      Comment
                      • pavyracer
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 04-12-07
                        • 82815

                        #12
                        Originally posted by LT Profits
                        Would you prefer ground level or low altitude?

                        Point is, Milwaukee is not a Mile High, although some fans may be after visiting the Miller Brewery.
                        LT, I'm just busting your balls.

                        Milwaukee, WI
                        Elevation 634 feet above sea level.
                        Comment
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