Red Sox and Yankees: Fireworks and Fluff
The big Fourth of July holiday weekend gets underway with a bang for bettors and sports enthusiasts tonight when the Boston Red Sox travel to the Bronx to open a four-game set against the New York Yankees. Accustomed to seeing this series match the top two teams in the AL East, the two rivals are instead playing catch up to the Rays currently. And, oh yeah, there's the A-Rod/Madonna sideshow attraction.
The Boston Red Sox are no longer the best team in the American League. Nor are the New York Yankees. They’ve both been eclipsed by, of all people, the Tampa Bay Rays.
Tampa Bay swept Boston in a three-game series at Tropicana Field to take the lead in the AL East. The Red Sox have now lost five games in a row to fall to 50-37; New York is another four games back at 45-40.
The problem for the Yankees this year is the same as it’s been for a while now: injuries and thin pitching. There is good news for Yankees supporters on both fronts. Two of their most important hitters, Alex Rodriguez (.994 OPS) and Jorge Posada (.837 OPS at catcher) are back in the lineup; they combined to go 3-for-6 with three walks in Wednesday’s 18-7 dismantling of the Texas Rangers. It would be better still if Hideki Matsui (.862 OPS) were healthy, but the Yankees with Rodriguez and Posada can still expect to cross the plate more often.
And yes, in case it matters, Rodriguez has reportedly separated from his wife, part of the “outside distractions” Yankees part-owner Hank Steinbrenner says are harming his team. They certainly haven’t hurt A-Rod’s performance at the plate, however.
Pitching is the larger concern for the Yankees with Chien-Ming Wang (foot) out until September, but Joba Chamberlain (2.22 ERA, 3.43 xFIP) is just one of the new batch of starters who has put up better numbers – so far – than Wang did when he was healthy. And the old guard is holding its own: Thursday’s starter, Andy Pettitte, is as strong as ever at 3.98 ERA and a commanding 3.54 xFIP. Now maybe Pettitte can get some run support; the under is 13-4 in his 17 starts, during which the Yankees are 10-7 for a tiny profit of 0.64 units.
Even with the usual suspects in the New York press accusing these Yankees of not having the “mystique and aura” of championship teams past, the casual betting public can be counted on to overvalue the most storied franchise in baseball history. Against Jon Lester (3.48 ERA, 4.27 xFIP) and the mighty Red Sox, New York is a -135 favorite on the MLB betting odds for Game 1 of this four-game series. Early betting reports suggested an even split of bettors on either side.
Lester is the second most profitable pitcher in the Boston rotation behind Daisuke Matsuzaka, collecting 3.92 units and leading the Red Sox to an 11-7 record. The under is 10-6-2 even though Boston is giving him exactly five runs of support per game. This calls attention to the one weak spot on the Sox roster: the bullpen. Boston’s relief corps is 19th in the majors with a 4.09 ERA; the Yankees are 12th at 3.63 ERA. And if it comes down to the late innings, New York has blown only four saves in 28 opportunities, while Boston has blown 15 out of 42.
The strength of the two starting pitchers in question does suggest a tight contest. The total for Thursday’s matchup is 9½ runs; bettors were leaning at about a 2:1 ratio toward the Over according to reports at press time. That might not be the right call with David Ortiz (wrist) out until after the All-Star Game and the under showing so many strong trends in this matchup. With Pettitte on the mound, the under is on a 23-8 tear, including 11-3 at Yankee Stadium. The under is also 15-7-2 for Lester.
Game time is 7:05 p.m. Eastern. NESN has the television coverage in the New England market, while Yankees fans can catch the action on the YES Network.
The big Fourth of July holiday weekend gets underway with a bang for bettors and sports enthusiasts tonight when the Boston Red Sox travel to the Bronx to open a four-game set against the New York Yankees. Accustomed to seeing this series match the top two teams in the AL East, the two rivals are instead playing catch up to the Rays currently. And, oh yeah, there's the A-Rod/Madonna sideshow attraction.
The Boston Red Sox are no longer the best team in the American League. Nor are the New York Yankees. They’ve both been eclipsed by, of all people, the Tampa Bay Rays.
Tampa Bay swept Boston in a three-game series at Tropicana Field to take the lead in the AL East. The Red Sox have now lost five games in a row to fall to 50-37; New York is another four games back at 45-40.
The problem for the Yankees this year is the same as it’s been for a while now: injuries and thin pitching. There is good news for Yankees supporters on both fronts. Two of their most important hitters, Alex Rodriguez (.994 OPS) and Jorge Posada (.837 OPS at catcher) are back in the lineup; they combined to go 3-for-6 with three walks in Wednesday’s 18-7 dismantling of the Texas Rangers. It would be better still if Hideki Matsui (.862 OPS) were healthy, but the Yankees with Rodriguez and Posada can still expect to cross the plate more often.
And yes, in case it matters, Rodriguez has reportedly separated from his wife, part of the “outside distractions” Yankees part-owner Hank Steinbrenner says are harming his team. They certainly haven’t hurt A-Rod’s performance at the plate, however.
Pitching is the larger concern for the Yankees with Chien-Ming Wang (foot) out until September, but Joba Chamberlain (2.22 ERA, 3.43 xFIP) is just one of the new batch of starters who has put up better numbers – so far – than Wang did when he was healthy. And the old guard is holding its own: Thursday’s starter, Andy Pettitte, is as strong as ever at 3.98 ERA and a commanding 3.54 xFIP. Now maybe Pettitte can get some run support; the under is 13-4 in his 17 starts, during which the Yankees are 10-7 for a tiny profit of 0.64 units.
Even with the usual suspects in the New York press accusing these Yankees of not having the “mystique and aura” of championship teams past, the casual betting public can be counted on to overvalue the most storied franchise in baseball history. Against Jon Lester (3.48 ERA, 4.27 xFIP) and the mighty Red Sox, New York is a -135 favorite on the MLB betting odds for Game 1 of this four-game series. Early betting reports suggested an even split of bettors on either side.
Lester is the second most profitable pitcher in the Boston rotation behind Daisuke Matsuzaka, collecting 3.92 units and leading the Red Sox to an 11-7 record. The under is 10-6-2 even though Boston is giving him exactly five runs of support per game. This calls attention to the one weak spot on the Sox roster: the bullpen. Boston’s relief corps is 19th in the majors with a 4.09 ERA; the Yankees are 12th at 3.63 ERA. And if it comes down to the late innings, New York has blown only four saves in 28 opportunities, while Boston has blown 15 out of 42.
The strength of the two starting pitchers in question does suggest a tight contest. The total for Thursday’s matchup is 9½ runs; bettors were leaning at about a 2:1 ratio toward the Over according to reports at press time. That might not be the right call with David Ortiz (wrist) out until after the All-Star Game and the under showing so many strong trends in this matchup. With Pettitte on the mound, the under is on a 23-8 tear, including 11-3 at Yankee Stadium. The under is also 15-7-2 for Lester.
Game time is 7:05 p.m. Eastern. NESN has the television coverage in the New England market, while Yankees fans can catch the action on the YES Network.