Friday

[BiffTFinancial]

3* Angels/Jays FF under 4 (-105)
3* Giants/Marlins under 7 (-104)

[BiffTFinancial]

my buddy's aussie rules, soccer, rugby plays for the weekend (HoG stands for Hand of God, that's the name that he picks under):

HoG starts the weekend with a nice win as St. Kilda holds Collingwood to a modest 19 point win despite kicking like garbage. A better kicking effort (or if the Pies were a little worse), and it's a nearly even match. Anyway, on to the weekend.


Carlton -17' (Saturday, 1am). The Blues have righted the ship after a short bumpy spell and still have only lost to elite sides. Freo is very much not an elite side. Subiaco will provide little shelter as the Dockers have recently been housed by St. Kilda and Hawthorn by 45+ on the coast. The Dockers will be buoyed by the return of one their top players, but I still think Carlton runs out 7+ goal winners with decent kicking.

Geelong -50' (Sunday, 2:30am). The Cats have been on a hell-raising terror tour, winning their last 3 fixtures by 62, 186 and 150. Yes, 150+ run-outs the past two weeks. The Crows aren't the worst team in Adelaide, but they still stink on ice. Homefield ought not matter much here – they could play this match in Antarctica and Geelong would still win by 10+ goals.

Australia +2, Tri-Nations Rugby (Saturday, 9:30am). A quick caveat – finding this line is a chore. Neither 5D nor bookmaker have it up, yet. Internationally, you can find it anywhere from 2 up to 3'. I've listed 2 for this play as I think Australia wins outright. The Wallabies need a win to keep alive hopes of their first Tri-Nations crown in a decade. The Boks have completely overhauled the shit side they sent to Oceania and as a result will be far more formidable. However, I think the lack of recent match experience hurts the Boks in this one. I like the Aussies to get an early lead and hold on for a narrow win.

In the EPL and Bundesliga:

Dortmund -0.75 at -108 (Saturday, 9:30am). Ok, I was mesmerized by Dortmund's quality and class on Friday. Perhaps they'll drop off the ledge when they travel to Hoffenheim, but I'm willing to keep riding Dortmund until they prove me wrong.

Bayern Munich ML at -115 (Saturday, 9:30am). Bayern suffered a disastrous opening day home loss to Mochengladbach while Wolfsburg scored an impressive road win at Cologne. I think fortunes turn a bit. Bayern can't afford to start the season with 0 or 1 point – especially with Dortmund serving notice. I think they bounce back and score a crucial win.

Chelsea-ManU ML Parlay (+165) (Sunday, 8:30am). Yeah, so, for those familiar with HoG's previous soccer efforts, you know HoG average on parlays is about 180 points south of Jack Hannahan's batting average, so tread lightly. My real concern with this play is Chelsea getting a result at Stoke. Fortunately, that's the early game. So, my advice is to play the parlay. If Chelsea turn in an insipid performance, play ManU -1 at -108. If Chelsea get the result, enjoy the ManU-WBA match with +165 to the good on the Red Devils.

I may also have some England Championship plays to post tomorrow or Saturday. But otherwise, I'm going to enjoy the first weekend of action and try to get a sense of where things stand, even though I'm really, really tempted to take QPR to win at home on their return to the EPL.

2011 YTD:
Aussie Rules: 15-5
Rugby: 2-0
Soccer: 1-1
CFL: 1-3

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

3* Rangers/A's over 7.5 (+105)

could've played it at 7 for -135, but to paraphrase Denunzio, i ain't payin' no 35 cents for no total.

updated card
3* Angels/Jays FF under 4 (-105)
3* Giants/Marlins under 7 (-104)
3* Rangers/A's over 7.5 (+105)

also kind of like A's ML and Cards TT over, but heading out shortly, and after Luckfest 2011 last night, not sure that i want to play a big card. BOL to all tonight.

[Luv2Play2]

MISSED LAA U 4 ..but gl 2nite

[God1]

huge bet on the blue jays tonight

[pacocn]

huge bet on the blue jays tonight

God 1 how many cents off was that Toronto line today?

[LockPickMaster]

huge bet on the blue jays tonight

Morrow crapped the bed again. Guy is a headcase

[Redscot]

Morrow crapped the bed again. Guy is a headcase

I really like peripheral numbers and sabermatics etc., but sometimes you gotta know the game a little too. Morrow is a dude whose last two years appear dominant in those categories. Guy is way too erratic, I gave up backing him beginning of the year. Tough to be a consistent starter with NO off speed pitch. Electric stuff, if he can get ahead in the count he does damage, but has nothing to keep the hitters off balance and gets hammered behind in the count.

[Love The Action]

I really like peripheral numbers and sabermatics etc., but sometimes you gotta know the game a little too. Morrow is a dude whose last two years appear dominant in those categories. Guy is way too erratic, I gave up backing him beginning of the year. Tough to be a consistent starter with NO off speed pitch. Electric stuff, if he can get ahead in the count he does damage, but has nothing to keep the hitters off balance and gets hammered behind in the count.

Great baseball analysis

[God1]

God 1 how many cents off was that Toronto line today?

I think the true line was somewhere around 125-130

[God1]

Tough to be a consistent starter with NO off speed pitch.

You mean like masterson and david price?

And it sounds like you mean anyone with just a fastball and slider, well throw ervin santana in there too as tough to be a consistent starter!

oh and clayton kershaw too. shall i keep going?

[Redscot]

You mean like masterson and david price?

And it sounds like you mean anyone with just a fastball and slider, well throw ervin santana in there too as tough to be a consistent starter!

oh and clayton kershaw too. shall i keep going?

I know I will not win a stats based argument with you G1, but there are caveats. First off, toss out Lefties, they can get by with heat and sliders. As per righties, those that have an exceptionally heavy ball can also mitigate the lack of an off speed pitch. There will always be exceptions G1, E. Santana is pitching over his head imo, but my eyes have watched A LOT of baseball, some things can't be tracked in percentiles.

[God1]

I know I will not win a stats based argument with you G1, but there are caveats. First off, toss out Lefties, they can get by with heat and sliders. As per righties, those that have an exceptionally heavy ball can also mitigate the lack of an off speed pitch. There will always be exceptions G1, E. Santana is pitching over his head imo, but my eyes have watched A LOT of baseball, some things can't be tracked in percentiles.

I agree

[BiffTFinancial]

2-0-1 +6.15u. should've gone game under in Toronto rather than FF. fortunately, winning a couple of units on aussies rules partially made up for it. oh well. off to goff, stayed out way too late last night.