Front Page Picks (Tue., Jul 1)

Willie Bee · 07-01-08, 10:04 AM

LA Dodgers weak lineup no match for Houston Astros (-130)

Game Time: 07/01/2008 08:05 PM -
By: Bread | sbrforum.com

The Dodgers are struggling to score right now and that won't get any better when Los Angeles faces southpaw Wandy Rodriguez and the Astros in Houston Tuesday night.

With the Los Angeles Dodgers struggling mightily to score any runs with a depleted lineup, look for the Astros (-130) to take them down and for the Under 9 to cash.

Have you watched this Dodgers team lately? I hope not. It is painful. They have gone 4-6 in their last 10 matchups. They have scored a measly eight runs in those six losses. Then of course there was the infamous hitless game that they won. Some might call that game “opportunistic” or “fortunate.” I call it “karma coming around for that whole Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim nonsense.” Either way, the Dodgers won’t be winning the next time they get no-hit this year.

If I could find betting odds on the Dodgers getting no-hit again this season, I would be all over it. The Dodgers haven’t had this much trouble scoring since Alyssa Milano dumped Brad Penny, because you know he didn’t dump her!

Until they get Andruw Jones, Rafael Furcal and now the extremely valuable Juan Pierre back, this lineup is downright anemic. When you are relying on guys like James Loney, Delwyn Young, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and Blake DeWitt to be your everyday producers, you know you are in trouble. The city of Houston hasn’t seen such a collective group of bums invade their city like this since the Hurricane Katrina refugees.

Wandy Rodriguez gets the start for the Astros. He probably will not manhandle L.A. like John Lackey or Jered Weaver did this past weekend, but I still look for him to shut them down. Sporting an impressive 2.58 ERA and an androgynous first name, Wandy should be ready to rock.

Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw (0-2 4.36 ERA) should find the going a little tougher against a capable Houston team that is coming off a series win against the champion Boston Red Sox. Lance Berkman is a one-man wrecking crew this season, ranking in the top three in NL batting average, home runs and RBI. He is a ballroom enthusiast and was an alternate for Clyde Drexler in the 2007 season of 'Dancing With the Stars.' Hasn’t the State of Texas suffered enough with watching their sports figures pirouette around like girly-men? Emmitt Smith, Clyde Drexler, Mark Cuban. Think about your fans Lance. Your fans.

Darin Erstad, Miguel Tejada and Carlos Lee are all very good hitters for Houston also. At this point, the Astros’ ninth best hitter is probably more reliable than L.A.’s second best!

Look for this entire series to be low scoring, and for Houston to take at least three out of the four games...unless Joe Torre makes some calls and has Berkman whacked. Then all bets are off.

Willie Bee · 07-01-08, 10:08 AM

Red Sox knuckle under to Rays (-121)

Game Time: 07/01/2008 07:10 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Tampa Bay is for real, make no mistake, and tonight that have the pitching edge with Matt Garza on the mound. Ride the Rays to the winner's circle against the Boston Red Sox.

Our Tuesday night MLB selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays at home in The Trop over the Boston Red Sox.

Starting pitchers can't get much hotter than tonight's matchup of right-handers. Tampa's young Matt Garza and Boston's veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield both have ERAs slightly over two runs and WHIPs under 1.00 in their last three starts. But for all of his success, Wakefield has continued to struggle on the road this season, going 1-3 with a ERA of 4.37 and WHIP of 1.33 away from Fenway.

That's not unusual for a knuckleballer whose home park is an outdoor facility and who has to occassionally pitch in some indoor arenas like Minnesota's Metrodome or Tampa's Tropicana Field. Wakefield may be 7-2 in his last nine starts against the Rays, but he has given up 14 runs in his last three starts against Tampa covering only 14 innings. The Sox will continue to miss the bat of David Ortiz who, it was just announced, will miss the upcoming All Star Game in New York.

They will also be without outfielder Coco Crisp who ironically is serving the suspension that he was hit with for rushing the mound against the Rays' James Shields. Crisp had been red hot before he started serving his suspension.

With Tampa's win over Boston on Monday night, the home team has now won every game played between these two AL East squads in 2008, and Tampa is 30-9 its last 39 at Tropicana Field. Take the Rays.

Free Pick: Rays -121

Willie Bee · 07-01-08, 10:09 AM

Cubs +100 at San Francisco Giants

Game Time: 07/01/2008 10:15 PM -
By: Scott Spreitzer | phoenixsports.com

The Giants really have no business being on the same field with the Cubs this season. Cash your ticket on Chicago Tuesday night when they face Matt Cain in San Francisco.

I'm playing the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday night when they take on the Giants in San Francisco.

Back from interleague action, Chicago began NL play the way they left off...with a blowout win over weak opposition. I expect the domination to continue in tonight's tilt.

First, look at this duel which has the public thinking Matt Cain over Jason Marquis, therefore the linesmaker made San Francisco a small favorite. But here's the rub: Marquis has been perfect against the Giants, and more importantly, he's been perfect at this ballpark. All four of his starts against San Fran have come at AT&T. Marquis is 3-0, allowing just seven earned runs and 29 base runners in 29.2 IP for a fantastic, 2.12 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and .190 BAA.

His counterpart Cain has struggled at home as of late. The Giants have dropped each of his last four home starts while he's allowed 17 earned runs in 26 innings...a 5.88 ERA! Cain has really struggled in the month of July so far in his career, sporting a 5.18 ERA in 10 starts.

I believe he'll struggle to begin this July, taking a loss to the NL-dominating Cubs. Chicago is the side on Tuesday.

Free Pick: Cubs +100

Willie Bee · 07-01-08, 10:11 AM

Play Texas Rangers & New York Yankees Over 9½

Game Time: 07/01/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Vernon Croy | 10starpicks.com

With both offenses hitting at a nice clip currently, a high-scoring affair should follow tonight. Play the Over Tuesday when the New York Yankees host the Texas Rangers.

This pick falls into one of my MLB systems and both of these teams are hitting the ball extremely well.

Texas is hitting .286 as a team against right-handed starters this season while averaging 5.9 runs per game, and the Yankees are hitting .273 as a team over their last seven games while averaging 5.4 RPG. Rangers opponents are hitting .281 against them in night games this season while averaging 5.8 RPG.

Kevin Millwood (5-4, 5.08) has struggled on the road this season with an ERA of 5.25 while allowing 70 hits over just 48 innings pitched. Millwood has also struggled over his last three starts with an ERA of 5.68 while walking 10 batters over 19 innings.

Yankees starter Joba Chamberlain (2-2, 2.03 ERA) has only lasted an average of 4.1 innings per start over his three starts at home this season. Take the Over for Tuesday night.

Free Pick: Rangers-Yankees Over 9½ (+111)

Willie Bee · 07-01-08, 10:12 AM

Dodgers & Astros an easy Under 8½

Game Time: 07/01/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Bob Harvey | bobharveysports.com

With half of their lineup on the DL, it's no wonder the Dodgers are struggling to score runs right now. Play the Under when Los Angeles continues their series in Houston with the Astros.

The Dodgers offense is M.I.A. and fans are sending out an S.O.S. (Save Our Season) to Los Angeles management. Joe Torre’s club has now scored two runs in their last three games and one run or fewer in their last seven.

To make matters worse, leadoff man Juan Pierre went on the disabled list with a strained MCL leaving L.A. without a true top of the lineup hitter. Pierre, who is hitting .277, ranks second in the National League with 35 stolen bases. He joins Rafael Furcal, Andruw Jones and Nomar Garciaparra on the DL, meaning half the starting lineup the Dodgers were counting on in spring training is now on the shelf.

Also on the DL are catcher Gary Bennett and pitchers Brad Penny, Hiroki Kuroda, Scott Proctor and Jason Schmidt.

Tonight, Texas native Clayton Kershaw gets the start for Los Angeles. The 20-year old Kershaw has pitched well but is still seeking his first big league win. He’ll be opposed by lefty Wandy Rodriguez who is just 3-3 but has a fine ERA of 2.58. The Dodgers rank 18th in the league in hitting (.258) but 28th in scoring with just 4.05 runs per game. Houston ranks 23rd in scoring averaging 4.39 runs per game.

Until the Dodgers show me they can hit water falling out of a boat (old Tommy Lasorda line), I’m staying Under with this ice cold Dodger offense.

Free Pick: Dodgers-Astros Under 8½ (+100)

Willie Bee · 07-01-08, 10:13 AM

Boston Red Sox +110 vs. TB Rays

Game Time: 07/01/2008 07:10 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | 10starpicks.com

The home team has won every contest between these two this season, but tonight that stops. Back Manny Ramirez and the Boston Red Sox on the road against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Boston looks for some payback still as Tampa Bay continues its surprising assault on the A.L. East. The Red Sox are six games under .500 on the road for the season but the offense has been sufficient with a .270 average. That improves .287 over their last 10 games including a .288 average against right-handed pitching.

The Red Sox have had success against the top teams of late, going 9-5 in their last 14 games against a team with a winning record. Contrarian players take note that the home team is 10-0 in this series year to date.

Tampa Bay has the second best home record in the American League but it remains a tough place for the home team to generate any offense. Over the last four home series, covering 13 games, the Rays have averaged only 3.7 rus per game. On the season, they are averaging just 4.3 RPG while Boston is tied for 10th in the majors and averaging 4.5 rpg on the road. Tampa Bay makes up for it with the best home ERA in baseball at 2.87 but that will be challenged from the other side tonight.

Tim Wakefield’s lifetime performance against Tampa Bay can be summed up in just one word and that is domination. He had a no-decision in his lone start against the Rays this season, and over his career he is 19-3 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 29 starts and 39 overall appearances. That dominance is huge but what is even bigger has been Wakefield’s recent form. He has tossed six straight quality starts, posting a 2.09 ERA over this stretch.

The Rays counter with Matt Garza who has had a solid run of late. He has thrown three consecutive quality starts and based on his status, this is the time to go against him, especially when in the role of favorite. Prior to that, he had two rough outing and one of those came against the Red Sox.

In two starts this season against Boston, Garza has a 6.97 ERA and 1.55 WHIP and neither appearance was worth much. Despite a season ERA of 3.76, the Rays are just 7-7 in his 14 starts. Play Boston for 1½ units.

Free Pick: Red Sox +110

Willie Bee · 07-01-08, 10:15 AM

Minnesota Twins -125 vs. Tigers

Game Time: 07/01/2008 08:10 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

The Twins came into this series one of the hottest teams going, and they have a decided edge on the mound in this contest. Make your play on Minnesota vs. the Detroit Tigers.

The red-hot Minnesota Twins look to continue their winning ways when they send Scott Baker up against Nate Robertson And the Detroit Tigers in the Metrodome tonight.

A quick check of the ERA column shows Baker's 2.24 mark at home is twice as good as his 4.57 road mark, while Robertson's 6.27 mark on the road is more than two full runs worse than his 4.17 home ERA. With Baker 4-1 with a 2.39 ERA in his last five home starts, look for Robertson to dip to 4-12 away on Tuesday here tonight.

Free Pick: Twins -125

Willie Bee · 07-01-08, 10:17 AM

Colorado Rockies -151 vs. SD Padres

Game Time: 07/01/2008 09:05 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

The Rockies, who have won eight of the last 12 meetings with the Padres, will have their ace Aaron Cook on the mound tonight. Cash Colorado as the home faves vs. San Diego.

The San Diego Padres are 4-13 in their last 17 games. San Diego is 18-35 in their last 53 road games. The Padres are 2-10 in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400.

The Colorado Rockies seem to be at their best when Aaron Cook is on the mound, and he is tonight's starter. Cook is 10-5 on the season and Colorado has won five of his last seven home starts. In his last 10 starts vs. NL West teams, the Rockies are 8-2. The Rockies have won five of his last seven home starts vs. San Diego.

The Padres are 4-8 in the last 12 meetings between the two teams. Play on Colorado.

Free Pick: Rockies -151

Willie Bee · 07-01-08, 10:18 AM

Take Indians and White Sox Under 7½

Game Time: 07/01/2008 08:11 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Expect a good old-fashioned pitchers’ duel tonight when Cliff Lee and his 2.34 ERA take on the equally blazing John Danks, who has allowed one run in three starts. Take the Tribe and Chisox to go Under.

The Chicago White Sox defeated the Cleveland Indians 9-7 in a wild series opener here last night, but look for a completely different type of game this time around.

Cliff Lee is an amazing 11-1 with a 2.34 ERA and 1.04 WHIP for the Indians, and he is showing absolutely no signs of slowing down. Lee has allowed two runs or less in four consecutive starts, he has a 1.66 ERA and a fantastic 0.92 WHIP in his last three outings and he posted a season high 11 strikeouts vs. the Giants in his last start.

Not to be outdone, White Sox starter John Danks has allowed only one run in 18 innings (0.50 ERA) over his last three starts, and he too has an excellent 2.62 ERA for the entire season in 16 starts. He has already tossed one gem at the Indians this year, allowing just one run and two hits in 6.2 innings way back on April 3. The southpaw is now facing a Cleveland lineup that is batting a pathetic .184 vs. left-handed pitching over the last 10 games.

Finally, the Under is 12-4 in all games started by Danks this season, as well as 8-6 in all Lee starts.

Free Pick: Indians, White Sox Under 7½ (+105)