i like the cards a lot today..... gl
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90% of the time what thbis guy pot is useless, but his last post was quite intriguing. Anything that offers a creative, or new line of thinking is worthwhile.Originally posted by t-boneComment -
Yeah, I just treat his negativity as his "schtick". Once you get past that I value his take on things. Gotta look at all angles in this game.Originally posted by HoulihansTXComment -
If you're going to spout such asinine things as "yanks ML looks too easy" in a thread I'm reading, you'll be sure to hear from meOriginally posted by t-boneComment -
T-Bone, don't take it personal, he has an interesting mind, but doesn't know how to share it with-out being insulting. God1, some comments might seem really simple minded to you, but people are informal and relaxed and aren't as intense about picking sides as you are. Now play fukin nice boys
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Most of these people are attempting to profit with their betting, not just betting games for fun. My attitude would change if it was the oppositeOriginally posted by italianbanditT-Bone, don't take it personal, he has an interesting mind, but doesn't know how to share it with-out being insulting. God1, some comments might seem really simple minded to you, but people are informal and relaxed and aren't as intense about picking sides as you are. Now play fukin nice boysComment -
Originally posted by God1
i really wanna believe Lackey can be solid today, not to take sox but because i would really like to be on this under. Over getting killed on this national tv gm, side prob be damn near split but id imagine majority of parlays be side and over. just hit 9.5 at squarebook should be that everywhere soon and ff ov 5 getting juiced where 5.5 might be available for reasonably cheap.
the better CC has been the less support he has gotten of late, im gonna go ahead and buy into his recent run and say he shows up and at least limits Sox, lets say worst case 7in 4er but really expect better. That leaves Lackey who i know is capable at times, and has solid numbers against ny bats, but still scares me to trust him? Ump has a decent k-zone so that should help both pitchers..
if i can get un 9.5 @ a decent price or even ff un5.5 (not sure i like as much with either team capable of a big inning at any time) I might have to make a play on it, Crazy?
And i know the earlier question wasnt for me but ill answer anyways, "yes im normally on drugs"
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Lackey doesn't have to be solid at that price. He's being priced as the worst in baseball at a 5 ERA, maybe slightly higher. Of course all this being said, I don't necessarily think the Red Sox are a profitable bet because there are more factors than just what I've put forth. 1. I'm unsure of the exactly how much the extra run support Sabathia gets is being at priced at, 2. 60% betting on a -150 road favorite I'm almost positive hasn't happened this year and if it has it's been less than 3 times, but I'd imagine the split was probably expected which might make it less significant? I don't know, too much uncertainty for me to betOriginally posted by BigDani really wanna believe Lackey can be solid today, not to take sox but because i would really like to be on this under. Over getting killed on this national tv gm, side prob be damn near split but id imagine majority of parlays be side and over. just hit 9.5 at squarebook should be that everywhere soon and ff ov 5 getting juiced where 5.5 might be available for reasonably cheap.
the better CC has been the less support he has gotten of late, im gonna go ahead and buy into his recent run and say he shows up and at least limits Sox, lets say worst case 7in 4er but really expect better. That leaves Lackey who i know is capable at times, and has solid numbers against ny bats, but still scares me to trust him? Ump has a decent k-zone so that should help both pitchers..
if i can get un 9.5 @ a decent price or even ff un5.5 (not sure i like as much with either team capable of a big inning at any time) I might have to make a play on it, Crazy?
And i know the earlier question wasnt for me but ill answer anyways, "yes im normally on drugs"Comment -
Lackey will not be solid. He has not been all year. He is not even a mercurial pitcher. He is consistenly the worst player on the field. When he plays the A's, and Mariners may be a different story.Although those teams offenses are awful.
If you bet the BoSox, you are not betting on Lackey. Instead on BoSox offense, other 8 players on defense, and the fact they are home.Comment -
that's right.Originally posted by HoulihansTX
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That's just plain wrong. Lackey has pitched really well since the beginning of July. And he was barely below average for the month of JuneOriginally posted by HoulihansTX
This shows you have zero understanding of how betting works, but that's ok if you're not actually trying to turn a profitIf you bet the BoSox, you are not betting on Lackey. Instead on BoSox offense, other 8 players on defense, and the fact they are home.Comment -
well no lose on total..played un 9.5 @-102 and live bet ov 6.5 @ ev....here's to it landing on 7,8,9
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well, i'm on drugs and i thought that Lackey would be out by the 3rd. fk me. this is a good reason to stay away from -150 MLs, obviously. pretty unreal list of worst-in-months stats for Sabathia. of course he was bound to regress, but i didn't see it happening all at once...
got a new tv today, nothing ridiculous, but a lot better than what it replaced. while i'm bummed that i'll be losing my first play on it, it looks awesome. have a really great perspective on CC's gut. fkn sweet that i can pull up MLB.tv on it and watch any of those games in HD at full-size. with that, ipad and laptop each able to carry a game, some strong viewing in the basement.
thinking about Tribe over, may add shortly.Comment -
adding
3* Tribe/Rangers over 10 (-105)
downside is that i missed it at 9'. upside is less juice.
updated card
3* Yankees ML (-150)
3* A's/Rays under 8 (-108)
3* Braves/Mets under 7.5 (-122)
3* Cards ML (-120)
3* Tribe/Rangers over 10 (-105)Comment -
lean Tigers/Royals under, Nats/Rocks under rest of the way.Comment -
rain delay at Citi Field, that might not be good for business. on the upside, Pujols!Comment -
adding
2* Nats/Rockies under 9 (+110)
updated card
3* Yankees ML (-150)
3* A's/Rays under 8 (-108)
3* Braves/Mets under 7.5 (-122)
3* Cards ML (-120)
3* Tribe/Rangers over 10 (-105)
2* Nats/Rockies under 9 (+110)Comment -
Originally posted by BiffTFinancial
GL Biff I am with you on a couple of those as well.
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Greinke looks like he's finally being priced correctly or close enough to it that the gravy train on him is over. However, that under looks severely underpriced at 7.5 -119. Maybe that's contradictory that I think Greinke is correctly priced on the ML but not on the total? Gallardo/Happ was under 8 -108, The under 7.5 equivalent to that price is about under 7.5 +114, which is pricing Greinke/Norris only slightly over a half run less than Happ/Gallardo, which of course is ridiculous. Norris/Happ have an expected difference in ERA conservatively of about 1 which over 6 innings translates to an extra .66 runs on that alone, brewers are worse against lefties, I don't know what impact that has but it's some, probably at least .15 runs. Gallardo/Greinke has an expected difference of .5-1 depending on how you grade greinke, assume 6 innings and conservatively thats at least .33. This brings us to a full run off Gallardo/Happ conservatively and puts the total at something like under 7 -110
I went against pricing and blindly bet kershaw last time and he won, not sure I'm willing to do it again, might just have to lay off as the line looks really goodComment -
hey god, what do you think about the under in pitt/sd?Comment -
It looks good, would like to see how the market shakes out tomorrow before deciding how goodOriginally posted by bigballer891Comment -
runge calling balls and strikes tooOriginally posted by God1Comment -
yeah i was kind of eying this under too.Originally posted by bigballer891Comment -
2-3-1 -2.66uComment
