Front Page Picks (Wed., Jun 25)

Willie Bee · 06-25-08, 11:12 AM

LA Dodgers -105 vs. White Sox

Game Time: 06/25/2008 10:10 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | 10starpicks.com

The White Sox have struggled to score on the road while Eric Stults has performed above expectations for the Dodgers. We like Los Angeles tonight when they host Chicago.

The Dodgers have had their share of struggles this season but they are still over .500 at home and that is the important factor here. While the offense is middle of the pack, the pitching has been solid yet again at home, posting a 3.35 ERA which is best in the National League.

The bullpen has been the main reason for that as their ERA is at 2.61. The bats are hitting at a .272 clip at Dodger Stadium while they have averaged 4.7 runs per game over their last eight after scoring a total of 11 runs in the previous five games.

The White Sox started this series coming off a sweep at the hands of the Cubs, bringing them down to seven games below .500 on the season away from home. They had dropped nine straight games away heading into Game 1 on Tuesday so they certainly are not getting the job done there.

Chicago is hitting .255 on the road which actually isn’t bad but its 160 runs scored is sixth-to-last in the American League while its 4.0 RPG is 21st in all of baseball. The White Sox are hitting only .236 against lefties this season.

Eric Stults makes his second start of the season after a successful debut where he allowed one earned run in six innings in a win at Cincinnati. He has started eight games for the Dodgers in the past two seasons and the results were good for the most part. Stults has allowed three runs or fewer in seven of those outings including two or fewer five times. He did work out of the bullpen as well and that is what made his overall numbers inflated. He went 5-6 with a 3.59 ERA through 14 starts at Las Vegas this season.

Gavin Floyd had a solid run going with seven quality outings through his first nine starts. However, it has been a struggle since then as he has just two quality starts over his last five games. In four June starts, Floyd has a 3.12 ERA but every one of those starts came at home where his ERA is 2.70 on the season. In six road starts, his ERA is at 4.01 while the WHIP is at 1.37. Showing the disparity, Chicago is 7-1 in his eight home starts and 3-3 in his six road starts. Play Los Angeles for 1½ units.

Free Pick: Dodgers -105

Willie Bee · 06-25-08, 11:13 AM

Follow Florida Marlins +120 to upset over Shields, Tampa Bay Rays

Game Time: 06/25/2008 07:10 PM -
By: Scott Spreitzer | phoenixsports.com

After dropping the first game of this Sunshine State series, the Marlins will be looking to halt a two-game losing streak tonight when Florida hosts the Tampa Bay Rays.

I'm playing the underdog Florida Marlins on Wednesday night at home against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Despite dropping two straight, the Fish are just a single game back of Philadelphia in the NL East. Last night's loss to Tampa Bay followed a long trip home from a West Coast road excursion. Now, with their legs back under them, I expect Florida to have little trouble with James Shields who has struggled all season away from home.

The Tampa righty is 1-4 in seven road starts, allowing a whopping 29 earned runs and 52 hits in just 37.1 IP. That's a horrible ERA of just under seven with a 1.63 WHIP, and a ridiculously bad .327 BAA. It's no wonder that Tampa Bay is just 1-5 in his last six road starts.

Florida averages 5.05 runs per game against right-handers and I expect a big run output tonight. I'm taking the price with the under-valued Marlins on Wednesday.

Free Pick: Marlins +120

Willie Bee · 06-25-08, 11:15 AM

Cardinals, Tigers Under 9 in Detroit

Game Time: 06/25/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

Kyle Lohse, the free agent hurler nobody seemed to want last winter, is having a solid season for the Cardinals. Look for St. Louis and the Detroit Tigers to stay Under tonight.

Kyle Lohse (9-2, 3.63 ERA), the St.Louis Cardinals' starting hurler tonight against the Detroit Tigers, is one of baseball's hottest pitchers, as is evident by a 6-0 run along with a stingy 2.07 ERA in his last seven starts.

Meanwhile, his pitching opponent from the Tigers, Armando Galarraga (7-2, 3.03 ERA), has been equally as hot, and is looking like a good bet to make the AL All-Star team. The former minor leaguer has allowed only one run in his last 13-plus innings of work, and has allowed opposing batting orders to average just .184 against him this season.

Bottom line: With two quality hurlers on the hill and two viable bullpens backing them, a low scoring duel looks to be on the agenda.

Final Notes & Key Trends: The Cardinals have gone under in 20 of 28 games this season with a total of 9 to 9½. The Under is 4-0 in Galarraga's last four starts with a total of 9 to 9½. Lohse has not seen the total eclipsed in any of his last six. Play the Under.

Free Pick: Cardinals-Tigers Under 9 (-110)

Willie Bee · 06-25-08, 11:17 AM

Play Seattle Mariners, New York Mets Under 9

Game Time: 06/25/2008 07:10 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Last night's 11-run explosion was an aberration for the Mariners and things should return to normal tonight when Seattle and the New York Mets conclude their series.

Our Wednesday night MLB selection is on the Seattle Mariners and New York Mets remaining under the total in their series finale at Shea Stadium.

New York can be a tough place to make a good impression, and new Mets manager Jerry Manuel (who recently replaced Willie Randolph) may be having a tougher time than most after going 3-4 in his first six games at the helm and then getting absolutely embarrased at home last night at the hands of the worst team in baseball, these same Seattle Mariners. Manuel tried to spice things up a bit and perhaps tried to inspire his team as well when he got ejected in the fourth inning of Tuesday's game after a heated exchange with home plate umpire Brian Runge over balls and strikes.

The Mets need something to shake them up that's for sure as they don't look like a team headed for the postseason, and they can't seem to hit their way out of a paper bag lately, especially against right-handers, and they will face a crafty one tonight in Seattle's veteran Miguel Batista. The Mets will counter with a right-hander of their own in John Maine, and he is pretty much on a pace to match last year's breakout season. Now if only Maine could get some run support. Despite an excellent ERA of 3.78, Maine is only 7-5 and has only won two of his last seven starts.

The 11 runs scored by Seattle on Tuesday are a bit of an oddity, as Seattle is the lowest scoring team in the American League and third lowest in the majors so far in 2008. Take the Under.

Free Pick: Mariners-Mets Under 9 (+100)

Willie Bee · 06-25-08, 11:18 AM

Play Under 9½ when the Houston Astros host the Texas Rangers

Game Time: 06/25/2008 08:05 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

The Under has cashed in five of the last six games both Houston and Texas have played. Look for a low-scoring affair between the Astros and Rangers on Wednesday.

The Texas Rangers have played under the total in five of their last six games. The Under is also 5-1 in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.

Scott Feldman is on the mound for Texas tonight, and the Rangers have played the Under in eight of his last 10 starts. The Under is 5-2 in his last seven starts as an underdog.

Houston has played under the total in five of their last six games. The Under is 6-2 in their last eight interleague games vs. a right-handed starter. Houston has played the Under in four of Roy Oswalt's last five starts and it the under is 6-0 in Oswalt's last six starts vs. Texas.

Free Pick: Rangers-Astros Under 9½ (-115)

Willie Bee · 06-25-08, 11:20 AM

Rockies, KC Royals to go Under 8½

Game Time: 06/25/2008 08:10 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Colorado ace Aaron Cook is coming off of his worst start of the season, but he should confirm his ace status by bouncing back with a string outing here. With the Under also 9-3 in Hochevar’s starts, go Under.

The first two games of this series between the Colorado Rockies and the Kansas City Royals have both gone Over, but we are looking for a lower scoring game tonight.

Aaron Cook has become the ace of the Rockies staff this season, going 10-4 with a 3.57 ERA. Now granted, he is coming off of his worst start of the year when he gave up six earned runs and 12 hits in seven innings vs. the New York Mets last week, but he did have 11 Quality Starts in his first 15 outings, so we look for him to have a fine bounce-back effort here.

Now Luke Hochevar of Kansas City will never be confused with a Cy Young candidate, but he has proven to be quite serviceable, allowing more than four earned runs just once in his last 11 starts. Besides, he is not exactly facing Murderers’ Row here. Colorado is averaging a measly 3.69 runs per game on the road while batting a modest .243 as a team vs. right-handed pitching.

Finally, the Under is 9-3 in all of Hochevar’s starts this season, as well as 9-6 in all of Cook’s outings.

Free Pick: Rockies, Royals Under 8½ (+105)