MLB 4-Play Thursday

[LT Profits]

I will no longer mention BPS in this thread or note the BPS plays as such unless the system turns around. Sorry guys - and I has such high hopes after the last three years for this too.


Diamondbacks +144 (5 Dimes)
Dodgers +129 (WSEX)
Orioles +146 (WSEX)
Phillies -106 (5 Dimes)

YTD: 93-113-1, 45.2%, -13.36

[treece]

Now is a perfect time to bet BPS. Starting today i'm betting a dime a game. This is just like the stock markey i'm buying it low. So far I got Arizona +140 and Chicago White Sox +106. If one hits we're good but i'm hoping for both.

[treece]

I'm going 2 dimes with the Dodgers +127. Peavy coming back from an injury i like it.

[j$]

Im on Dodgers ML...Dodgers first 5

[j$]

3-0 I hate the Dodgers

[fifawcs]

Let's cash the phils.

[treece]

I'm going against the Orioles. 2 dimes on the Red Sox -144, never bet against the red sox at home. Putting a dime on the Phillies.

[maritime]

LT, if I understand correctly, the BPS system is based on stats for the beginning of the season to date. Right? Top ten bullpens for the season?

I wonder what the difference would be if you filtered it by factoring in the best bullpens over a more recent shorter period of time. Like say the past 2 to 4 weeks. You know, as I, that baseball is streaky. Hitters get hot/cold, and bullpens get hot/cold. I make it a habit to check the last 7 days and last 30 day stats on mlb.com.

[maritime]

I'm going against the Orioles. 2 dimes on the Red Sox -144, never bet against the red sox at home. Putting a dime on the Phillies.

Actually, I think betting against the sox at home, if you pick your spots well, will be quite profitable the rest of the season. Law of averages suggests the sox won't break 56 wins at home this season (no team has won more than 57 since the 98 yankees, who won 114 games that season). If that holds, the sox will lose at least 40% remaining home games. And since they are overpriced at home, I see it as a good opportunity.

[ryanXL977]

maritime, doesnt that mean, assuming bosox win 60% at home, that any home bosox line of -150 or better is an ok bet?

[LT Profits]

Maritime,

That is not a thing that can be backtracked because I do not have incremental data (i.e. last week, last two weeks, last 30 days) for past seasons.

[ryanXL977]

hey lt
why no oak at even at home tonite

falls into the system no?

[LT Profits]

Yes A's qualify, as did White Sox also.

[ryanXL977]

so why no oak for you

[fifawcs]

Cuz they have no offense. That's the problem with the Bullpen System. It doesn't factor anything else. Bullpens represent 20% at most of the average game's outcome.

[LT Profits]

I didn't have the White Sox here either. As I have said several times, I don't list ALL BPS plays and I also make some plays outside of BPS. I even went AGAINST a BPS play with Pittsburgh over Arizona a few days ago. This thread is for my favorite plays, regardless of how I come with them.

[ryanXL977]

oakland never has offense and every yr they seem to make the loffs, save last yr

[LT Profits]

Cuz they have no offense. That's the problem with the Bullpen System. It doesn't factor anything else. Bullpens represent 20% at most of the average game's outcome.

The relevant point is that Bullpens are undervalued in the betting line, which is why the sysem did so well as a stand-alone angle the last three years.

[ryanXL977]

nothing is more improtant than pens

see braves and mets today
nothing matters more than pens
i have learned that the last 5 years

[fifawcs]

Don't get me wrong, Pens are important. They can decide games. But there are other factors that can also decide games. If you only look at any one of those factors, you are at greater risk of losing.

[ryanXL977]

true true

[treece]

Oakland has no offense yet they're 5 games over .500. Yankees have a lot of offense yet they're right at .500. Since i'm up $400 for the day i'm going with the A's +1.5 -150, $300 to win $200. Game should be close.

[ryanXL977]

thats true also
people always discount oakland and they always win
bc they play baseball
unlike new york