Front Page Picks (Wed., Jun 11)

[Willie Bee]

Chicago White Sox +105 over Tigers

Game Time: 06/11/2008 07:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Justin Verlander has been the biggest disappointment in baseball this season, as the Tigers are just 2-11 as a team when their projected ace has started. Javier Vazquez has pitched well, so take Chicago.

Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers has been the biggest money burner in baseball this season, while Javier Vazquez of the Chicago White Sox is quietly having a very good year.

Vazquez may be just 6-4, but he has a nice 3.64 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 84 innings, and Chicago is 8-4 as a team in the games that he has started. He has eight Quality Starts in his 12 starts, and allowed only four runs in three of the non-quality outings. Furthermore, he has four consecutive Quality Start vs. the Tigers, including holding them scoreless on just five hits in his first start against them this season. As if that is not enough, the White Sox bullpen now leads the American League with a 2.84 pen ERA.

Verlander was considered a Cy Young candidate entering this season, but he has proceeded to go 2-9 with a 5.05 ERA on the year, and the Tigers are 2-11 as team in all of his starts. Not surprisingly, the -13.17 units that he has cost his supporters this year ranks him dead last among 223 pitchers that have made a start this season. He has also been hit hard in both of his starts vs. the White Sox this season, surrendering a total of 10 earned runs and 18 baserunners in 13.1 innings.

Throw in the fact that the Detroit bullpen ranks 28th out of 30 Major League teams with a 4.41 pen ERA, and the White Sox seem like a rather easy call as small dogs here.

Free Pick: White Sox +105

[Willie Bee]

Kazmir and Rays plus Lackey and Angels spells Under 7

Game Time: 06/11/2008 03:35 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

Two of the American League's top hurlers square off this afternoon when Tampa sends Scott Kazmir to the Anaheim mound to face the Angels' John Lackey. Play the Under.

The visiting Tampa Bay Rays and their hosts the L.A. Angels will both be sending the aces of their staff to the hill, and two of the best hurlers in the American League.

The Rays' starting pitcher this afternoon, Scott Kazmir (6-1, 1.40 ERA), is in top form after winning six straight decisions. The 24-year-old right-hander is 2-1 along with a 3.26 ERA in three career starts vs the Angels. His pitching opponent from the Halos, former Cy Young award winner John Lackey (2-1, 1.70 ERA), is also in great current form, and off a dominating effort last time out as he set down 15 straight A's in seve overpowering innings. Lackey is 8-1 along with a tight 2.35 ERA in this series vs the Rays spanning 10 starts.

Both pitchers are supported by average at best bullpens, but I'm expecting these two workhorses will go deep in what I predict will be a low-scoring pitchers duel.

Final Notes & Key Trends: The Angwls have gone under in 20 of their last 29 games with a total of between 7 and 8½. The Under is 10-2-1 in Kazmir's last 13 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Under is 6-0 in the Angels' last six games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 10-1 in Lackey's last 11 starts overall. Play the Under.

Free Pick: Rays-Angels Under 7 (+105)

[Willie Bee]

Cleveland Indians -133 vs. Twins

Game Time: 06/11/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

Cleveland's Paul Byrd is a much better pitcher at home and Minnesota's Nick Blackburn has been a far worse pitcher on the road, making it easy to side with the Indians over the Twins.

When the Tribe takes on Nick Blackburn and the Twins at Progressive Field in Cleveland Wednesday night, they will send Paul Byrd to the mound knowing his 2.90 ERA at home this season if a full three runs better than his 5.95 road ERA.

On the flip side, Blackburn's 6.96 road ERA if a full four runs worse than his 2.90 home ERA this year. In his most recent start, on the road against the White Sox, Blackburn tossed just four innings and allowed seven runs. Look for the Indians to improve to 8-2 at home on Wednesday here tonight. We recommend a one-unit play on Cleveland with Byrd vs. Blackburn.

Free Pick: Indians -133

[Willie Bee]

Dempster, Chicago Cubs -144 to stop Jurrjens, Atlanta Braves

Game Time: 06/11/2008 08:05 PM -
By: Bob Harvey | bobharveysports.com

With the Cubs 8-0 this season when Ryan Dempster takes to the mound at Wrigley Field, backing Chicago's North Siders is an easy play against the Atlanta Braves.

It will be a battle of right-handers as the Braves send Jair Jurrjens (6-3, 3.77 ERA) against Ryan Dempster (7-2, 2.90) in the middle game of a three-game series at Wrigley Field.

Jurrjens has gotten roughed up in his last two outings yielding a total of 11 runs on 20 hits and eight walks in 10.1 innings (9.58 ERA). He’s also 1-3 with a 4.84 ERA in six road starts this season. This will be his first start against Chicago.

Dempster, meanwhile, has been lights out at the friendly confines, going 7-0 with a 3.10 ERA, plus a no-decision in a game the Cubs won. Chicago is a perfect 9-0 when Dempster starts at home and they’re 5-1 in his last six starts overall.

In fairness, it should be noted that Dempster is also 1-10 against Atlanta in his career with a 5.65 ERA.. But I still like him and the Cubbies over a Braves team that is 8-23 on the road against righties and 1-6 vs. the NL Central.

Free Pick: Cubs -144

[Willie Bee]

Houston Astros -110 vs. Brewers

Game Time: 06/11/2008 08:05 PM -
By: Scott Spreitzer | sportspic.com

Milwaukee has struggled on the road this season while Houston has been a strong team at home. Back Brandon Backe and the Astros tonight when they host the Brewers.

I'm wagering on the Astros at home in Houston in their Wednesday night meeting with the Milwaukee Brewers.

Milwaukee is in one of the worst team situations of the season tonight. The Brewers are 3-11 and score an average of only 3.75 runs per game in road night games against right-handers following last night's 6-1 loss. That spells serious trouble facing Brandon Backe in this venue. The Houston righty is 3-1 in five home starts this season, allowing just 10 earned runs and 26 base runners in 31 innings of work. That's a 2.90 ERA to go along with a decent 1.35 WHIP and .230 BAA.

Manny Parra counters for the visitors. He looked well in his last two games, but both of those starts came at Miller Park. Parra has been a completely different story away from home. The southpaw has lasted just 18 innings in his last four road starts. In fact, he's not an innings-eater at all away from home, where he's been tagged for a 6.95 ERA, 2.05 WHIP, and hefty, .352 BAA in five starts.

The Brewers are just 14-21 away from home overall, while the Astros protect home field well. I'm laying the short price with Houston on Wednesday.

Free Pick: Astros -110

[Willie Bee]

Dodgers, San Diego Padres to stay Under 7 in snoozer

Game Time: 06/11/2008 10:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Chad Billingsley and Randy Wolf are both in excellent form right now, and low scoring games are nothing new for either of these teams. Play the Under, even at seven.

The San Diego Padres recently set a Major League by winning four consecutive 2-1 games, so they are accustomed to playing low scoring games. Expect more of the same vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight.

The Dodgers are not immune from low scoring affairs either, as the Under is 14-6 in their last 20 games overall. Their starter Chad Billingsley allowed four runs in five innings vs. the Chicago Cubs in his last start, but that snapped a streak of four consecutive starts where he allowed two runs or less including two scoreless efforts. This looks like a great spot for Billingsley to start a new streak, as he allowed a grand total of two runs in his last four starts vs. San Diego, covering 25 innings. Also, the Dodgers bullpen has done its part when called upon, ranking second in the National League with a 2.86 pen ERA.

Padres starter Randy Wolf is also in excellent form right now, as he has recorded five consecutive Quality Starts including allowing two runs or less in each of his last four outings. He has also loved pitching here in San Diego, as he is 3-1 with a 2.68 ERA and an outstanding 1.05 WHIP in his home ballpark.

Now seven may seem like a low total for most teams, but we already documented San Diego’s recent string of 2-1 games, and the Under is actually 29-13 in their last 42 games that had a posted total of seven or less, so this is not uncharted territory for them.

Free Pick: Dodgers/Padres Under 7 (-110)

[Willie Bee]

White Sox +105 at Detroit Tigers

Game Time: 06/11/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

After yesterday's 6-4 loss to the Tigers, look for the White Sox to bounce back into the win column tonight when Chicago and Detroit meet in the middle game of their three-game series.

Our Wednesday night MLB selection is on the Chicago White Sox on the road in Motown over the Detroit Tigers.

Welcome to 2008's version of the most surprising team in baseball. The White Sox are 37-27 and in first place in the AL Central Division by a whopping 6½ games. They have a great record at home (20-9), but can also hold their own on the road.

The Sox are completely healthy right now (no injuries reported on the web site currently) and playing with a level of intensity that few teams in the league can match. In other words, they're pretty much the polar opposite of the Detroit Tigers.

Detroit has a slew of injuries, the latest being the loss of one-time ace righthander Jeremy Bonderman to elbow surgery for the entire remainder of the season. Regular DH Gary Sheffield is also out with an oblique injury and the remaining squad is playing with anything but intensity it seems. If there's any good news, it may be that current ace right-hander (and tonight's starter) Justin Verlander has pitched much better of late after getting off to a disasterous start to the '08 campaign.

But Verlander has very little to show for his improved form as he is 0-2 (with a 3.43 ERA) over his last three outings, and during that time the Tigers are winless as well at 0-3.

Chicago is 19-8 in their last 27 games and 23-10 in the last 33 meetings in Detroit. Take the Sox.

Free Pick: White Sox +105